So I decided to watch some good St. Louis football today. Of course, that meant going back a while. I went to youtube and searched for some 1999 video. I wanted to watch a game (instead of just highlights) just to get a feel of how good they were again. I came upon the 4th game of the season against the 49ers. The Rams had lost 17 straight to them, but we came in 3-0 and they were 3-1. Talk about two loaded offenses. The Rams were led by 4 probable Hall of Famers at the skill positions: Kurt Warner, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, and Marshall Faulk. The 49ers countered with 3 of their own: Terrell Owens, Jerry Rice, and Steve Young (although Young is out in this game). It is still amazing to watch the continual precision passing Warner exhibited and the pure speed at every offensive position including the return game. I still don't remember a team that went from so bad for so long (3-13 the year before plus MANY losing seasons in a row) to so good in one year. The time from the 2-3 minute mark in the 4th part of the game with Bruce showed the inexplicable change that occurred seemingly overnight. Man was that a fun watch for me (even though it will make watching the current Rams even more painful)!
There was one painful thing to see: Near the end of the game they showed some stuff on "today" vs what was happening the last time the Rams beat the Niners in 1990. The Dow was all the way up to 10,649. Unfortunately as I write this over 10 years later it sits at virtually the same place 10,452. I guess some things never change.............
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Friday, November 27, 2009
Number 11
Today is my 11th wedding anniversary with my wonderful wife Julie. Each year gets better for us, and I love her more now than the day we married. This is a hard phenomenom to explain to someone who hasn't experienced it, but it is something to look forward to for a newly married couple. Each year you gain a better understanding and a deeper love for your spouse.
By the way belated Happy Thanksgiving to all! I hope everyone was able to get together with friends and family to celebrate everything that is good in your life.
By the way belated Happy Thanksgiving to all! I hope everyone was able to get together with friends and family to celebrate everything that is good in your life.
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Day 1 Main Event
It's very late (or early), but I made it through to day 2 w/ 145k. The avg is around 80k with 90 or so left. Top 27 make the money.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Horseshoe Hammond Update
I got up here on Monday to play the 2k PLO, but there weren't enough people in it for me to play. So I dabbled in some cash games. Today, I played the $500 NLH 6-max, but I busted pretty early in it making a big call down against a nutty guy. I then entered the $200 PLO w/ $100 RBs. Talk about a crazy rb period!!! Some drunk guy was in for at least 20 rebuys. Anyways, I come back tomorrow (today) with 122k in chips with avg around 100k and 12 people left. 14 people cashed, and 1st prize is 18k and change plus a main event seat.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
The Comeback
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch is reporting that sure-fire Hall of Fame Flower Girl Ellie Viox is coming out of retirement today to participate in her Godmother Julie Viox's wedding. There had been speculation of this for some time. In the end, it was an offer she couldn't refuse. Both sides of the wedding party are led by all-Pro caliber participants. Most importantly though, it was a chance to be able to lead the best young ring bearer (Joey Viox) to come along in years. Many predict he has the chance to participate in a record number of weddings given his wonderful smile and exuberant demeanor.
As a side note, Maureen Dempsey (bride of Ellie's most memorable flower girl wedding and cousin of the current bride) is rumored to be furious with Ellie's decision. To make it worse, Maureen is a current bridesmaid in this wedding where she will half to just sit back and watch as her former flower girl lights up the church. While half of the relatives are just happy to see Ellie still in the game, the other half can barely stand to watch. Ellie is quoted as saying "Having (Maureen) in the wedding had nothing to do with my decision. Some of my best smiles were in Maureen's wedding and I will always be her flower girl. However, I still enjoy the feeling you can only get at a wedding. This does nothing to diminish what I did in her wedding." At age 7, many experts feel she may be too old, but she said, "If I didn't feel I could still perform, I wouldn't be back."
As a side note, Maureen Dempsey (bride of Ellie's most memorable flower girl wedding and cousin of the current bride) is rumored to be furious with Ellie's decision. To make it worse, Maureen is a current bridesmaid in this wedding where she will half to just sit back and watch as her former flower girl lights up the church. While half of the relatives are just happy to see Ellie still in the game, the other half can barely stand to watch. Ellie is quoted as saying "Having (Maureen) in the wedding had nothing to do with my decision. Some of my best smiles were in Maureen's wedding and I will always be her flower girl. However, I still enjoy the feeling you can only get at a wedding. This does nothing to diminish what I did in her wedding." At age 7, many experts feel she may be too old, but she said, "If I didn't feel I could still perform, I wouldn't be back."
Monday, October 12, 2009
Another Reason Pokerstars is Considered The Best Online Site
I just received this email from Stars (I deleted a little of the letter that was irrelevant.):
Dear WCOOP Champion,
Congratulations on your success in the 2009 World Championship of Online Poker! Making your way through the tough field found in any WCOOP event to earn the bracelet is a major achievement few will ever experience.
I'm contacting you today to provide details on the WCOOP Champion's Bracelet presentation, which we will be conducting at the Atlantis Resort on Paradise Island in the Bahamas, during the PokerStars Caribbean Adventure.
Each WCOOP Champion will receive the following:
* $1,000 credited to your account to help with travel and other expenses
* 4 nights stay at the Atlantis Resort for you and a guest
* invitation to Champions' Reception (location to be determined) on January 9th
Please note that just one trip will be awarded to each WCOOP Champion, regardless of the number of bracelets won or Player of the Series standing.
You should arrive in the Bahamas on January 8th and fly out on January 12th, as the hotel nights reserved for you will be the nights of the 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th. If you wish to play in the Main Event of the 2010 PokerStars Caribbean Adventure, you can of course try your luck in the satellites or buy a package directly, and if you do so we will adjust your credit accordingly.
Thanks again for participating in the 2009 World Championship of Online Poker. I hope that you're looking forward to receiving your bracelet at least as much as we're looking forward to presenting it to you!
See you in the Bahamas!
All the best,
Bryan Slick
Tournaments Team Leader
PokerStars Poker Room Management
Dear WCOOP Champion,
Congratulations on your success in the 2009 World Championship of Online Poker! Making your way through the tough field found in any WCOOP event to earn the bracelet is a major achievement few will ever experience.
I'm contacting you today to provide details on the WCOOP Champion's Bracelet presentation, which we will be conducting at the Atlantis Resort on Paradise Island in the Bahamas, during the PokerStars Caribbean Adventure.
Each WCOOP Champion will receive the following:
* $1,000 credited to your account to help with travel and other expenses
* 4 nights stay at the Atlantis Resort for you and a guest
* invitation to Champions' Reception (location to be determined) on January 9th
Please note that just one trip will be awarded to each WCOOP Champion, regardless of the number of bracelets won or Player of the Series standing.
You should arrive in the Bahamas on January 8th and fly out on January 12th, as the hotel nights reserved for you will be the nights of the 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th. If you wish to play in the Main Event of the 2010 PokerStars Caribbean Adventure, you can of course try your luck in the satellites or buy a package directly, and if you do so we will adjust your credit accordingly.
Thanks again for participating in the 2009 World Championship of Online Poker. I hope that you're looking forward to receiving your bracelet at least as much as we're looking forward to presenting it to you!
See you in the Bahamas!
All the best,
Bryan Slick
Tournaments Team Leader
PokerStars Poker Room Management
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
g g g g g g g g g GOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Gold just hit all-time highs today. After breaking through the previous resistence in the low $1020's/oz, it met further small resistence at the previous all-time high of $1033/oz (hit in early 2007). As I write this, it is sitting at $1040/oz (up 2% on the day). Furthermore, the gold/silver mining stocks are up an incredible 7.5% on the day so far. Breaking through all-time highs is a pretty significant event, and many people thought that if gold could do it, $1300 isn't out of the question in a fairly short time (a few months to a yr).
The dollar keeps getting weaker. There are more and more rumblings around the world of the dollar losing it's reserve standard. Unless the government changes it's ways soon, the dollar will keep getting weaker, assets will keep getting more expensive, and inflation will ruin many people's standard of living. In the past year, the dollar has lost 20%! Yet the government says there has been no inflation?!?!?! Don't believe them. Food costs are up, gas prices are up, etc. Real inflation is running at around 6% or so according to most real estimates. Protect yourself.
The dollar keeps getting weaker. There are more and more rumblings around the world of the dollar losing it's reserve standard. Unless the government changes it's ways soon, the dollar will keep getting weaker, assets will keep getting more expensive, and inflation will ruin many people's standard of living. In the past year, the dollar has lost 20%! Yet the government says there has been no inflation?!?!?! Don't believe them. Food costs are up, gas prices are up, etc. Real inflation is running at around 6% or so according to most real estimates. Protect yourself.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Poker Television Debut (Sort Of)
Tonight, I should be on ESPN's coverage of the WSOP Main Event. This will be my first television coverage ever (if you don't count me being in the background of Paul Wasicka's deep runs :) doing my best rail bird). I'm excited yet a little worried about the hand(s) they might show. Nonetheless it will be cool to see.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
WCOOP Champ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I just took down the WCOOP NLO8 $215 tourney on pokerstars for 42K+. WOWOWOWOW did I need this!!!!!! Interestingly, I got HU with benba (Ben Lamb) for the bracelet. Congrats to him on his 2nd place finish (30K+). I pretty much dominated the whole final table (which basically meant I ran well because the structure weas fast). I don't know what else to say, but thank GOD!
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
A couple market updates....
The first is on my gold/silver recommendations done last year in October and November. Now one would think with the market's huge rally that maybe it would have been better to be in "regular" stocks.
Here is the link to the original article:
http://asliceofpi-cviox.blogspot.com/2009/02/gold-update_18.html
and here is the updated returns using the 11/6/8 date (which is more favorable for the S&P 500):
S&P 500 16.18%
Gold 37.99%
Silver 72.90%
GDX 119.24% (mining stock etf)
AUY 144.33%
SLW 255.50%
So if you put an equal amount into each of my five recommended holdings your return would have averaged merely 126%. Incidently, gold is just under alltime highs as I write this. The S&P 500 is still nearly 50% under it's alltime highs. The fundamentals for gold and silver remain strong while the fundamentals for the market as a whole are tenuous at best.
This leads to the second update:
http://asliceofpi-cviox.blogspot.com/2008/11/precipice.html
In this one I preditcted a pattern for the Dow Jones. So far the pattern has been almost perfect. I will say my timing was off by a couple months (I thought the bottom would be in December not March, and I thought the rally would be sharper and end in about 4 months). The Dow is just below my predicted top of between 10000 and 10500. I still hope I am wrong about all of this. However, I really believe this drop will happen at some point unless the fed keeps printing money like it's going out of style.
Right now the biggest threat for a massive blowup "lies" in the banks. As of now most banks have tremendous amounts of bad debt sitting on their balance sheets at false levels. The fed and the accounting board are allowing the banks to put these "assets" on their books at full value. Who out there really believes all these Alt A laons, sub prime loans, ARMs, etc will be fully recovered. In fact, recently a major bank that was forced to be taken over had their assets wrote off at 37% (a mere 63% below where our government was allowing them to show)!!!!! The reason our government is doing this: if the banks are forced to mark these assets to market (like has always been the case), most would be bankrupt. This was why the gov bailed them out, and this is why we are likely screwed. Despite the huge bailout, only a small part of the huge canyon was filled.
A new wave of mortgage blowups are expected to hit in 2010 and 2011 on the same scale that has happen the past 2 years due to ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages) resetting. ARMs were the huge fad towards the end of the housing boom as a way to get people that had no business getting homes, or second homes, or investment homes into the market. Banks quoted teaser rates as low as 1% for 5 yrs. They also signed these people up with no financial records because they got paid for each loan finished. Volume equaled huge profits. Screw the long-term. Well the long-term is almost here, and all these people that signed up are in deep shit. Already the default rates on these loans are high and the intereset rate reset hasn't even occurred on most. The estimated default rate on these loans are over 50%!!!! I haven't even gotten into commercial loans which typically trail consumer mortgages. These size of this market isn't as large as consumer but it is expected to be extremelky weak also.
Can this be fixed? It's a catch 22. If the government steps aside as they should in a true capitalistic economy, the financial sector (and as a result the entire economy) will be %^#^**. However, we will recover fairly quickly as the strong players will come out stronger, and the weak will be gone. If the government keeps trying to prop up every weak player, then our country's debt will continue to skyrocket, and the dollar will continue to get weaker.... and our economy will still be %^*%&$ (just in a different fashion with huge inflation and impossible debt loads). The strong players will get punished because the incentive to do things the right way will be gone. The idiot's that took on too much risk or flat out cheated will be bailed out at the expense of those that went about things the right way. This would sacrifice our country's future for the present. Currently, our government is choosing the latter option. It's pretty sad......
I'm not sure when or what may be the cause that starts the downturn, but I truly believe it will happen (pending the printing press). It could be sudden or just a rolling over of the market that slowly picks up steam. Please tread carefully everyone, and do not get caught up in the propaganda getting spewed out of Washington or Wall St.
Here is the link to the original article:
http://asliceofpi-cviox.blogspot.com/2009/02/gold-update_18.html
and here is the updated returns using the 11/6/8 date (which is more favorable for the S&P 500):
S&P 500 16.18%
Gold 37.99%
Silver 72.90%
GDX 119.24% (mining stock etf)
AUY 144.33%
SLW 255.50%
So if you put an equal amount into each of my five recommended holdings your return would have averaged merely 126%. Incidently, gold is just under alltime highs as I write this. The S&P 500 is still nearly 50% under it's alltime highs. The fundamentals for gold and silver remain strong while the fundamentals for the market as a whole are tenuous at best.
This leads to the second update:
http://asliceofpi-cviox.blogspot.com/2008/11/precipice.html
In this one I preditcted a pattern for the Dow Jones. So far the pattern has been almost perfect. I will say my timing was off by a couple months (I thought the bottom would be in December not March, and I thought the rally would be sharper and end in about 4 months). The Dow is just below my predicted top of between 10000 and 10500. I still hope I am wrong about all of this. However, I really believe this drop will happen at some point unless the fed keeps printing money like it's going out of style.
Right now the biggest threat for a massive blowup "lies" in the banks. As of now most banks have tremendous amounts of bad debt sitting on their balance sheets at false levels. The fed and the accounting board are allowing the banks to put these "assets" on their books at full value. Who out there really believes all these Alt A laons, sub prime loans, ARMs, etc will be fully recovered. In fact, recently a major bank that was forced to be taken over had their assets wrote off at 37% (a mere 63% below where our government was allowing them to show)!!!!! The reason our government is doing this: if the banks are forced to mark these assets to market (like has always been the case), most would be bankrupt. This was why the gov bailed them out, and this is why we are likely screwed. Despite the huge bailout, only a small part of the huge canyon was filled.
A new wave of mortgage blowups are expected to hit in 2010 and 2011 on the same scale that has happen the past 2 years due to ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages) resetting. ARMs were the huge fad towards the end of the housing boom as a way to get people that had no business getting homes, or second homes, or investment homes into the market. Banks quoted teaser rates as low as 1% for 5 yrs. They also signed these people up with no financial records because they got paid for each loan finished. Volume equaled huge profits. Screw the long-term. Well the long-term is almost here, and all these people that signed up are in deep shit. Already the default rates on these loans are high and the intereset rate reset hasn't even occurred on most. The estimated default rate on these loans are over 50%!!!! I haven't even gotten into commercial loans which typically trail consumer mortgages. These size of this market isn't as large as consumer but it is expected to be extremelky weak also.
Can this be fixed? It's a catch 22. If the government steps aside as they should in a true capitalistic economy, the financial sector (and as a result the entire economy) will be %^#^**. However, we will recover fairly quickly as the strong players will come out stronger, and the weak will be gone. If the government keeps trying to prop up every weak player, then our country's debt will continue to skyrocket, and the dollar will continue to get weaker.... and our economy will still be %^*%&$ (just in a different fashion with huge inflation and impossible debt loads). The strong players will get punished because the incentive to do things the right way will be gone. The idiot's that took on too much risk or flat out cheated will be bailed out at the expense of those that went about things the right way. This would sacrifice our country's future for the present. Currently, our government is choosing the latter option. It's pretty sad......
I'm not sure when or what may be the cause that starts the downturn, but I truly believe it will happen (pending the printing press). It could be sudden or just a rolling over of the market that slowly picks up steam. Please tread carefully everyone, and do not get caught up in the propaganda getting spewed out of Washington or Wall St.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Puke
Example of why I may be gray within a week or two:
This is my bustout hand from the $300 PLO w/ RB's and is extremely gross. I knew Mercier would make a move with anything here if I just made a weak looking call. However, when you can hit your 10%'s I guess I would make crazy moves too.
PokerStars Game #32886089940: Tournament #200909031, $300+$20 USD Omaha Pot Limit - Level IX (80/160) - 2009/09/15 18:07:04 ET
Table '200909031 32' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: JasonMercier (31620 in chips)
Seat 2: veg777 (3945 in chips)
Seat 3: Skint Paddy (32167 in chips)
Seat 4: grindnitout (3944 in chips)
Seat 5: PiMaster (15226 in chips)
Seat 6: MUSTAFABET (23548 in chips)
Skint Paddy: posts small blind 80
grindnitout: posts big blind 160
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PiMaster [Jh 2c 2h Jd]
PiMaster: calls 160
MUSTAFABET: folds
JasonMercier: calls 160
veg777: folds
Skint Paddy: calls 80
grindnitout: raises 640 to 800
PiMaster: calls 640
JasonMercier: calls 640
Skint Paddy: folds
*** FLOP *** [2s 8d Tc]
grindnitout: bets 2560
PiMaster: calls 2560
JasonMercier: raises 10240 to 12800
grindnitout: calls 584 and is all-in
PiMaster: raises 1626 to 14426 and is all-in
JasonMercier: calls 1626
*** TURN *** [2s 8d Tc] [Jc]
*** RIVER *** [2s 8d Tc Jc] [9c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PiMaster: shows [Jh 2c 2h Jd] (three of a kind, Jacks)
JasonMercier: shows [7c Td Ks Qc] (a flush, Queen high)
JasonMercier collected 22564 from side pot
grindnitout: shows [3s Ah 2d Ad] (a pair of Aces)
JasonMercier collected 11992 from main pot
cognex is connected
This is my bustout hand from the $300 PLO w/ RB's and is extremely gross. I knew Mercier would make a move with anything here if I just made a weak looking call. However, when you can hit your 10%'s I guess I would make crazy moves too.
PokerStars Game #32886089940: Tournament #200909031, $300+$20 USD Omaha Pot Limit - Level IX (80/160) - 2009/09/15 18:07:04 ET
Table '200909031 32' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: JasonMercier (31620 in chips)
Seat 2: veg777 (3945 in chips)
Seat 3: Skint Paddy (32167 in chips)
Seat 4: grindnitout (3944 in chips)
Seat 5: PiMaster (15226 in chips)
Seat 6: MUSTAFABET (23548 in chips)
Skint Paddy: posts small blind 80
grindnitout: posts big blind 160
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PiMaster [Jh 2c 2h Jd]
PiMaster: calls 160
MUSTAFABET: folds
JasonMercier: calls 160
veg777: folds
Skint Paddy: calls 80
grindnitout: raises 640 to 800
PiMaster: calls 640
JasonMercier: calls 640
Skint Paddy: folds
*** FLOP *** [2s 8d Tc]
grindnitout: bets 2560
PiMaster: calls 2560
JasonMercier: raises 10240 to 12800
grindnitout: calls 584 and is all-in
PiMaster: raises 1626 to 14426 and is all-in
JasonMercier: calls 1626
*** TURN *** [2s 8d Tc] [Jc]
*** RIVER *** [2s 8d Tc Jc] [9c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PiMaster: shows [Jh 2c 2h Jd] (three of a kind, Jacks)
JasonMercier: shows [7c Td Ks Qc] (a flush, Queen high)
JasonMercier collected 22564 from side pot
grindnitout: shows [3s Ah 2d Ad] (a pair of Aces)
JasonMercier collected 11992 from main pot
cognex is connected
Monday, September 14, 2009
For those who care....
I have gone the whole last week without a cash in the WCOOP. I am now 2 -18 and have skipped numerous events due to my frustration. The frustration has come about because I have now bubbled 5 events (2 were basically on the exact bubble while 3 others were very close). In addition, I have messed up a couple tournaments by botching a critical hand. It gets really old playing for six hours straight only to finish just outside the money. Here's hoping something changes in the next week because there are some biggies coming up. Tomorrow's Stud H/L event may be the launching point. I've always felt Stud H/L is my strongest online tourney game.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
How to Snow in 2 to 7.....
The hand history isn't pasting here for some reason so I'll write it out.
I am dealt 732xx and raise from the cutoff. The big blind calls. We both draw 2, and I end up w/ 77332. He checks calls my bet. At this point he draws 2 so I decide to stay pat. He check calls another bet from me and draws 1. Once again he checks and I bet. Fold fold fold fold. Nope he calls, and ...... the pot gets pushed .... to me! ?????
He immediately writes oops, and says he thought there was a draw left. Still I had 2 pair!!!!!! He had 87654 lol. So now I get caught snowing, and I won the hand. Best case scenario because I had just sat down at the table and I rarely ever do that. Now guys will be calling me down with all sorts of stuff.
I am dealt 732xx and raise from the cutoff. The big blind calls. We both draw 2, and I end up w/ 77332. He checks calls my bet. At this point he draws 2 so I decide to stay pat. He check calls another bet from me and draws 1. Once again he checks and I bet. Fold fold fold fold. Nope he calls, and ...... the pot gets pushed .... to me! ?????
He immediately writes oops, and says he thought there was a draw left. Still I had 2 pair!!!!!! He had 87654 lol. So now I get caught snowing, and I won the hand. Best case scenario because I had just sat down at the table and I rarely ever do that. Now guys will be calling me down with all sorts of stuff.
Monday, September 7, 2009
WCOOP Update
Through the first weekend I have played 8 of the 11 tournaments, and cashed in 2: $215 PL 5-Card Draw and $215 NL Holdem. Neither cash was huge and I am about even for the series. I was especially proud of the NL tourney. It was one of my finer performances. I had a stack under 25 bbs for 2 to 3 hours mid way through the tournament highlighted by a hand where I raised preflop and then pulled off a double barrel bluf on the river. The kicker: I started the hand with 12bbs and had 97h in 2nd pos on a KJT 5 3 board. I finished 124th out of more than 11,000 players.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
WCOOP Begins Today
My 2nd favorite tournament series of the year begins today (behind only the WSOP). The phenomenal structures and wide range of events are the best seen anywhere online. I am hoping to add a WCOOP bracelet to the SCOOP title (and watch) I won this past spring. I currently rank 14th all-time in cashes in the WCOOP, but I have yet to really make a good score. I am hoping this changes this year. I expect to play somewhere from 35-40 of the 45 events.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
WSOP Coverage
This coming Tuesday there is a decent chance I will appear on the coverage during any hand involving Eric Seidel. I am directly across the table from him sitting next to Kevin Stammen. However, if I do not appear in the coverage I am surely likely to on the Day 4 (or bubble day) coverage at the secondary feature table with Peter Eastgate, Joe Hachem, and Burt Boutin. This will be in 2-4 weeks from now.
Friday, August 21, 2009
Nationals Update
We got smoked in the final 3 games yesterday (the previous day got rained out). Our team was outmatched in pretty much every conceivable way. Honestly, it wasn't too much fun getting your ass kicked every game, but I did get to see fastpitch played at the highest levels.
On a side note this may have been may last truly competitive game. My desire has been dwindling this past year as I have been more focused on other aspects of my life. This may change when next spring comes around, but I don't know. I probably will play at some point in the future, but more than likely, it would be more just for fun or if someone needed me for a weekend. The only thing that kept me around this long is the guys on my team. As most of you know, my summers are crazy hectic, and I usually miss half of the season anyways. However, the comraderie of these guys has kept me around. That's what I would miss the most.
On a side note this may have been may last truly competitive game. My desire has been dwindling this past year as I have been more focused on other aspects of my life. This may change when next spring comes around, but I don't know. I probably will play at some point in the future, but more than likely, it would be more just for fun or if someone needed me for a weekend. The only thing that kept me around this long is the guys on my team. As most of you know, my summers are crazy hectic, and I usually miss half of the season anyways. However, the comraderie of these guys has kept me around. That's what I would miss the most.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Nationals
It will be hard to match last year's NAFA national tourney where we won the whole damn thing. First of all, we haven't been playing nearly as well as we did last year. More importantly, this is a much higher quality tourney. The comparison is like the difference between A and AAA baseball I would think.
40 teams qualified for the ISC II tourney. They have the top 30 of these teams ranked (we are not in that group). The format is 8 5-team round robin pools. The top 3 teams from each pool advance to a 24 team single elimination bracket with all the 1 seeds getting byes. Our bracket has the 8th, 9th, 15th, and 25th ranked teams.
Our first game was against the 8th seed and we lost 6-1. Most likely we will need to win 2 of the last 3 games to advance. I would consider this a successful tourney if we can. I will keep you updated. Our next game is tomorrow at 12:30.
40 teams qualified for the ISC II tourney. They have the top 30 of these teams ranked (we are not in that group). The format is 8 5-team round robin pools. The top 3 teams from each pool advance to a 24 team single elimination bracket with all the 1 seeds getting byes. Our bracket has the 8th, 9th, 15th, and 25th ranked teams.
Our first game was against the 8th seed and we lost 6-1. Most likely we will need to win 2 of the last 3 games to advance. I would consider this a successful tourney if we can. I will keep you updated. Our next game is tomorrow at 12:30.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Soooooo Close!
I finished 8th in the Sunday Warmup on Stars today. This seems to be my money tournament this year (if you look back a couple posts ytou can see why). I had a great shot at some really big money for the first time online in a looooonnnngggg time, but it was not meant to be this time. I am out of the hole on the year; so that's good.
I really like where my game is right now. I seem to be making a lot of good reads that are minimizing my losing hands, maximizing my monsters, and picking up pots that shouldn't be mine. Yet, I know I am making a couple bad plays here and there that I need to cleanup.
Oh and Wolf - you still owe me some :)
I really like where my game is right now. I seem to be making a lot of good reads that are minimizing my losing hands, maximizing my monsters, and picking up pots that shouldn't be mine. Yet, I know I am making a couple bad plays here and there that I need to cleanup.
Oh and Wolf - you still owe me some :)
Friday, August 7, 2009
FT (R U KIDDING ME?)
1 for my last 47 FTOPS.
I really think Fu(ck)ll Tilt has it out for me. I've started tracking my allins there in the NLH tourneys (just for info purposes to see if I'm crazy). My results there over time are ridiculously bad.
Tournies
ROI (courtesy of official poker rankings)
2009 FT -59% Stars 70%
2008 FT -12% Stars 8%
2007 FT 48% Stars 105%
Overall FT -7% Stars 32%
My stats (which go back 1 yr further) FT 5% Stars 32%
other sites Party 4% Live 67% UB 83% Cake 68%
Cash Games
2009 FT -6k Stars -10k (stars double the hrs & higher limits)
2008 FT -56k Stars +75k (stars about 25% more)
2007 FT -4k Stars +24k (stars more than doublte the time)
Overall (includes some pre 2007) FT -58K Stars +94K
other sites UB +44K Party +81k (this one's dubious pre-uigea) Bodog -10k Cake +9k
The disparity among Tilt and pretty much every other site is crazy. The fact that cash games and tournies pretty much look the same is odd too. I first started to notice this during my short -term short stacking phase. I played Tilt and Stars during it, and I used Poker Tracker which you could load into some software to measure your allin luck (to see how you ran during allins, this was all that mattered really for a short stacker). On Tilt I ran so far below expectations that I was a slight loser. On Stars, I ran slightly above expectations, but this meant I absolutely crushed the games.
I know the disparity on Tilt could be mathematically explained through standard deviations from the mean. At the same time, eventually reversion to the mean is expected if your sample size gets large enough. As time continues to go by, I am really beginning to wonder............................
I really think Fu(ck)ll Tilt has it out for me. I've started tracking my allins there in the NLH tourneys (just for info purposes to see if I'm crazy). My results there over time are ridiculously bad.
Tournies
ROI (courtesy of official poker rankings)
2009 FT -59% Stars 70%
2008 FT -12% Stars 8%
2007 FT 48% Stars 105%
Overall FT -7% Stars 32%
My stats (which go back 1 yr further) FT 5% Stars 32%
other sites Party 4% Live 67% UB 83% Cake 68%
Cash Games
2009 FT -6k Stars -10k (stars double the hrs & higher limits)
2008 FT -56k Stars +75k (stars about 25% more)
2007 FT -4k Stars +24k (stars more than doublte the time)
Overall (includes some pre 2007) FT -58K Stars +94K
other sites UB +44K Party +81k (this one's dubious pre-uigea) Bodog -10k Cake +9k
The disparity among Tilt and pretty much every other site is crazy. The fact that cash games and tournies pretty much look the same is odd too. I first started to notice this during my short -term short stacking phase. I played Tilt and Stars during it, and I used Poker Tracker which you could load into some software to measure your allin luck (to see how you ran during allins, this was all that mattered really for a short stacker). On Tilt I ran so far below expectations that I was a slight loser. On Stars, I ran slightly above expectations, but this meant I absolutely crushed the games.
I know the disparity on Tilt could be mathematically explained through standard deviations from the mean. At the same time, eventually reversion to the mean is expected if your sample size gets large enough. As time continues to go by, I am really beginning to wonder............................
Monday, July 27, 2009
Sunday Blues
In the Sunday majors (all $200+ buyin tournies plus some FTOPS and SCOOPs) this year:
3/62 (all 3 cashes in the Sunday Warmup on Pokerstars)
-$15,323
Yes I am 0 for the Stars Sunday Million, the FT Sunday Brawl, the FT 750k, and the UB 200K plus some HORSE, Razz and FTOPS/SCOOPs.
That's the bad news.
The good news: my big score of the year was in a $55 NLH on Stars back in January (which happened to be on a Sunday). As a result, my overall net on Sundays is actually positive. It just doesn't feel like it.
3/62 (all 3 cashes in the Sunday Warmup on Pokerstars)
-$15,323
Yes I am 0 for the Stars Sunday Million, the FT Sunday Brawl, the FT 750k, and the UB 200K plus some HORSE, Razz and FTOPS/SCOOPs.
That's the bad news.
The good news: my big score of the year was in a $55 NLH on Stars back in January (which happened to be on a Sunday). As a result, my overall net on Sundays is actually positive. It just doesn't feel like it.
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Sunday, July 12, 2009
377th
Out early today. I played only two hands. My bustout occurred with JJ vs AK aipf. Amazingly, it was only my 3rd allin pot of the whole tourney, and my first with me at risk. Not so amazingly, I lost the flip. The only day I wish I could play over again was day 4. I messed up two or three hands that day that put me behind the 8 ball coming into today.
To say this series was a disappointment would be a large understatement. I felt I played very well for the most part (although I did botch some hands as would be expected with the amount of poker I played). However, the allins just hammered me. I ran so far below expectation that it was hard to ever get a stack unless my timing on bluffs was phenomenal. This is basically how I went so far in the Main Event - a couple big hands, and tons of small to medium pots taken down with cbets and creative bluffs.
I basically broke even on the trip in poker including online action. Considering I was down almost 30k at one point, that could be considered a small victory. I fly home tomorrow, and I can't wait to see my family. Also, a good shave might do me wonders (the facial hair is out of control).
Good Luck to Mr. Joel Patchell! He is currently sporting a large stack, and I would love to see him make some major waves in this tourney.
To say this series was a disappointment would be a large understatement. I felt I played very well for the most part (although I did botch some hands as would be expected with the amount of poker I played). However, the allins just hammered me. I ran so far below expectation that it was hard to ever get a stack unless my timing on bluffs was phenomenal. This is basically how I went so far in the Main Event - a couple big hands, and tons of small to medium pots taken down with cbets and creative bluffs.
I basically broke even on the trip in poker including online action. Considering I was down almost 30k at one point, that could be considered a small victory. I fly home tomorrow, and I can't wait to see my family. Also, a good shave might do me wonders (the facial hair is out of control).
Good Luck to Mr. Joel Patchell! He is currently sporting a large stack, and I would love to see him make some major waves in this tourney.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Day 4
I played fairly well in this shortened version of a day. I did botch one hand but got lucky, and I made a big, but incorrect fold on another hand when I went with my read. The latter hand, in particular, was extremely strange and sickening. By tomorrow, it won't matter though. I have 201k with the average somewhere in the mid 400s I think. 407 players remain, so I will see what I can do tomorrow with my 25 big blind stack. I have plenty of time (and patience), and hopefully I can catch a few breaks and get a hold of some chips.
On a side note I played at my 1st feature table (it was the secondary feature table). I was seated with Joe Hachem, Peter Eastgate, Surindar Sunar, and Burt Boutin. So look for me when they do Day 4 coverage on ESPN. However, I fear the only hand they may show of me is the one I incorrectly folded :( So if that happens I won't look too good (weeeeeeee!).
WSOP Contest
Doyle - Phil Ivey, Dan Harrington
Nick/Matt - Chris Viox, Joe Sebok
Joel - Phil Hellmuth (3 pts), Chris Ferguson (2 pts - somehow missed him previously) Elky
Tom - JC Tran
Chris - Joe Hachem
Jason - none
On a side note I played at my 1st feature table (it was the secondary feature table). I was seated with Joe Hachem, Peter Eastgate, Surindar Sunar, and Burt Boutin. So look for me when they do Day 4 coverage on ESPN. However, I fear the only hand they may show of me is the one I incorrectly folded :( So if that happens I won't look too good (weeeeeeee!).
WSOP Contest
Doyle - Phil Ivey, Dan Harrington
Nick/Matt - Chris Viox, Joe Sebok
Joel - Phil Hellmuth (3 pts), Chris Ferguson (2 pts - somehow missed him previously) Elky
Tom - JC Tran
Chris - Joe Hachem
Joe - Justin Bonomo (3pts)
Matt S - noneJason - none
Day 4 Anyone?
I am on to day 4 of the WSOP Main Event (somehow). All day it was like pulling teeth until finally with 30 minutes left in the day I finally won a big hand with AA vs QQ. It was easily my toughest day yet, despite the fact the table wasn't all that difficult. I wasn't getting any hands to speak of, and these guys were not the easiest to win a pot off of without actually having something.
Nonetheless, I move on with 233,500. Average is slightly above this. Also Paul (293k) and Joel (313K) are still kicking. We should hit the money sometime early in the day (maybe 3 hrs in or so).
Doyle - Phil Ivey 371k Dan Harrington 181k
Jason - Isaac Baron 208k
Nick/Matt - Chris Viox 234k, Joe Sebok 298k
Joe - Justin Bonomo 518k
Joel - Phil Hellmuth 485k, Elky 1.4mil
Tom - JC Tran 119k
Chris - Joe Hachem 240k
Matt S - done
Nonetheless, I move on with 233,500. Average is slightly above this. Also Paul (293k) and Joel (313K) are still kicking. We should hit the money sometime early in the day (maybe 3 hrs in or so).
Doyle - Phil Ivey 371k Dan Harrington 181k
Jason - Isaac Baron 208k
Nick/Matt - Chris Viox 234k, Joe Sebok 298k
Joe - Justin Bonomo 518k
Joel - Phil Hellmuth 485k, Elky 1.4mil
Tom - JC Tran 119k
Chris - Joe Hachem 240k
Matt S - done
Thursday, July 9, 2009
WSOP Contest Update
Players Remaining w/ chip counts
Edited
Doyle: Phil Ivey 346k, Harrington 181k
Jason: Isaac Baron 82k, Jason Somerville 290k
Nick/Matt: Chris Viox 114k, Joe Sebok 123k
Joe: Greg Raymer 96k, John Juanda 39k, Justin Bonomo 223k
Joel: Phil Hellmuth 143k, Elky 208k
Tom: JC Tran 285k, Nam Le 38k, Erik Seidel 56k, Carlos Mortensen 58k
Chris: Joe Hachem 139k
Matt S: 0 0k, nobody 0k zilch 0k
Edited
Doyle: Phil Ivey 346k, Harrington 181k
Jason: Isaac Baron 82k, Jason Somerville 290k
Nick/Matt: Chris Viox 114k, Joe Sebok 123k
Joe: Greg Raymer 96k, John Juanda 39k, Justin Bonomo 223k
Joel: Phil Hellmuth 143k, Elky 208k
Tom: JC Tran 285k, Nam Le 38k, Erik Seidel 56k, Carlos Mortensen 58k
Chris: Joe Hachem 139k
Matt S: 0 0k, nobody 0k zilch 0k
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Ideal Day
I am on to Day 3 of the Main Event with a slightly above average chip stack of 114K. Given the fact I was working on 3 to 4 hours sleep, I am very pleased with how the day went climbing from 43K to where I ended. I had a very tough table draw, and to increase my stack by more than 2.5x is more than I hoped for.
I now play Friday when all the remaining players are finally combined for the first time.
Good Luck on Wednesday for the following: Tom Fuller, Matt Viox, Matt Doyle, Seth Fischer, Paul Wasicka, Joel Patchell, and Matt Smith. Hopefully most of these guys can make it through to Friday also.
I now play Friday when all the remaining players are finally combined for the first time.
Good Luck on Wednesday for the following: Tom Fuller, Matt Viox, Matt Doyle, Seth Fischer, Paul Wasicka, Joel Patchell, and Matt Smith. Hopefully most of these guys can make it through to Friday also.
Saturday, July 4, 2009
On to Day 2
I will be playing on day 2 of the Main Event with a starting stack of 43550. This should be just about average. I had what I would call a very "professional" day. I was pretty much flop dead all day, except for a few hands. I made the most out of what I got, and picked my spots well at a bad table. The guy on my left was super laggy, but ran about as bad as I've seen. When he got knocked out a big stack sat down. He was very good, and wasn't afraid to make big bluffs. Then the guy 3 to my left was the biggest floater ever. He hated to fold post and made some insane call downs. I never hit anything of note against him to take him to value town. Then the guy 3 to my right was apparently Gbmantis (an extremely good online player). He came to the table in level 2 with 60k already.
So a laggy bludgeoner to my right, a lag then huge bluffer to my left, and a super call station to my left made for many difficult spots. I will therefore take my stack with a smile and hope for a better draw for day 2. Good luck to virtually all my friends tomorrow. Almost everyone I know is playing except for a couple playing on Monday.
So a laggy bludgeoner to my right, a lag then huge bluffer to my left, and a super call station to my left made for many difficult spots. I will therefore take my stack with a smile and hope for a better draw for day 2. Good luck to virtually all my friends tomorrow. Almost everyone I know is playing except for a couple playing on Monday.
Friday, July 3, 2009
Main Event Contest
At dinner tonight, 8 of us decided to have a small ($20) contest for the main event of the WSOP.
The Rules:
1) 6 man teams
2) Points are earned as follows: Every pay jump a player of yours moves up you earn 1 pt (ie a minimum cash is worth 1 pt, the next pay jump up is worth 2 pts, etc)
3) Most pts wins - winner take all
Teams:
Doyle- Phil Ivey, Chino Rheem, Dan Harrington, Erick Lindgren, Scotty Nguyen, Alex Kamberis
Jason- Gus Hansen, Isaac Baron, Mike Sowers, Vitaly Lundkin, Eric Baldwin, Jason Somerville
Nick/Matt V- Allen Cunningham, Chris Viox, Maria Ho, Toph Moore, Joe Sebok, Mike Binger
Joe- Phil Galfond, Greg Raymer, Dario Mineiri, John Juanda, Justin Bonomo, Justin Smith
Joel- Phil Hellmuth, Elky, John Little, Chris Ferguson, Tom Dwan, Gavin Smith
Matt S- Mike Matusow, David Pham, Antonio Esfandari, Brandon Cantu, Barry Greenstein, Michael Banducci
Tom- JC Tran, Nam Le, Erik Seidel, Carlos Mortensen, Mike Mizrachi, Steve Sung
Chris- Jason Dewitt, Daniel Negreanu, Isaac Haxton, Joe Hachem, Danny Wong, Adam Freidman
The Rules:
1) 6 man teams
2) Points are earned as follows: Every pay jump a player of yours moves up you earn 1 pt (ie a minimum cash is worth 1 pt, the next pay jump up is worth 2 pts, etc)
3) Most pts wins - winner take all
Teams:
Doyle- Phil Ivey, Chino Rheem, Dan Harrington, Erick Lindgren, Scotty Nguyen, Alex Kamberis
Jason- Gus Hansen, Isaac Baron, Mike Sowers, Vitaly Lundkin, Eric Baldwin, Jason Somerville
Nick/Matt V- Allen Cunningham, Chris Viox, Maria Ho, Toph Moore, Joe Sebok, Mike Binger
Joe- Phil Galfond, Greg Raymer, Dario Mineiri, John Juanda, Justin Bonomo, Justin Smith
Joel- Phil Hellmuth, Elky, John Little, Chris Ferguson, Tom Dwan, Gavin Smith
Matt S- Mike Matusow, David Pham, Antonio Esfandari, Brandon Cantu, Barry Greenstein, Michael Banducci
Tom- JC Tran, Nam Le, Erik Seidel, Carlos Mortensen, Mike Mizrachi, Steve Sung
Chris- Jason Dewitt, Daniel Negreanu, Isaac Haxton, Joe Hachem, Danny Wong, Adam Freidman
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Thursday, June 25, 2009
New Event Same Result
I got cripppled right before the 1st break of the 1500 PLO8 as a 60/40 favorite (and only a 23% of getting scooped). I made one mistake in this tourney costing me 1100, and I got somewhat unlucky on another hand I was bluffing (I knew the guy was on a draw) costing me a medium pot (and 2300 of my stack) when a guy hit a weak draw on the river against me. I was firing the river, but he hit his 12 outer.
I have yet to win an allin for my tourney life in any tourney out here unless I was at least a 60% favorite. I have four tourneys left including the Main Event.
I have yet to win an allin for my tourney life in any tourney out here unless I was at least a 60% favorite. I have four tourneys left including the Main Event.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Out
I couldn't have been much colder. I was at an aggressive two tables, so the few pots I did win were big, but they were few and far between. In 3 1/2 levels I managed to bringin 5 total pots. I don't have too much else to say.
So This Is What Day 2 Is.....
I just made it to the second day of the 8 Mixed Game (HORSE + 2 to 7, NLH, and PLO) at the WSOP. I finished the day at 39,400 with the average in the low 20s. Two big PLO hands kept me going early on before I finally hit a rush in the limit games. We are still a good ways away from the money (avg will be over 75k then). I have lots of work to still do.
Happy Fathers Day all dads!!!!!
Happy Fathers Day all dads!!!!!
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Today's $1500
Loved my play, hated my luck. I chipped up early on with shit for hands. Cbets and easy to read bluffing opportunities got my chips up to 8500 or so. Then I lost a big pot where I turned my hand into a bluff on a 4 flush board where I knew the guy could only go with the A of the suit. Too bad he had it. Then I patiently grinded a 3500-4500 stack before an internet donk who had shoved big anytime there were limpers, did it again for the 3rd straight hand (for 4050 at the 100/200 level) after a guy limped. I wake up with QQ. He has 88 and dinks an 8 on the river for a 8700 pot. Next hand I'm allin blind for 75 plus my ante. I get AA (no joke!). 55 runs me down though lol. I'm surprisingly calm with the whole ordeal given the way everything has gone.
I play the 8 Game Mixed $2500 tomorrow. Things will turn eventually....right? :)
I play the 8 Game Mixed $2500 tomorrow. Things will turn eventually....right? :)
Friday, June 19, 2009
A Start, But Not Much Else
I played the $560 PLO at the Venetian the last 2 days. My low risk limping style was working beautifully, and for the most part I was playing perfectly. I had doubled up 2 or 3 times and busted 3 or 4 players, and the worst I had gotten it in the entire time was as a 60/40 favorite. Given that I had played 5-7 allin pots in PLO without being even in a coin flip situation is pretty amazing. Furthermore, I was sitting on 405k with 12 left (probably in 4th place or so) and had never really been a short stack. The bustout hand went down as follows. Six handed the UTG player raised to 45K at 8k/16k. He had never gotten out of line, and given the position of the raise I was fairly confident he had KK or AA. I called in the BB with (34d)25. The flop came (T4s)3. I led for 60K and he thought for a bit before potting it effectively putting me allin. I went with it virtually assured he had AxsAx, and knowing I was basically flipping depending on his other two cards. I knew his AA weren't immediate outs because of my straight draw. Sure enough he turned over AJsAJh. I was a 53% favorite, but the 8s hit the river. Moral of the story - avoid coin flips in PLO (just joking).
The cash was for a fairly meaningless $1586 due to the ridiculously top heavy structure employed by the Venetian. I really think if I won the hand I would have been about 3 to 1 to win it. As it was, I got my first cash for the trip. A few more to come hopefully.
The cash was for a fairly meaningless $1586 due to the ridiculously top heavy structure employed by the Venetian. I really think if I won the hand I would have been about 3 to 1 to win it. As it was, I got my first cash for the trip. A few more to come hopefully.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Chicken or the Egg
Simple question: If you are a poker player, why did you start playing?
Simple answer: To have fun.
Now some of you may have said to make money, but I would argue initially it was to have fun either online or with some friends and to hopefully come out ahead at the end of the day. Then when you found out you could really make some good money, it became far more interesting. Nevertheless, in the beginning it was for fun.
Why do I bring this up? Because I have been miserable of late. Losing day after day for weeks or months on end is horrible on one's spirit. This isn't just in poker. If you do any competitive activity and you lose repeatedly, it isn't going to be fun. This doesn't mean you don't still love to play the game.
So here is my theory, hypothesis, or whatever: I will play poker to have fun so that I will win. I will not play poker to win money so that I have fun.
Simple answer: To have fun.
Now some of you may have said to make money, but I would argue initially it was to have fun either online or with some friends and to hopefully come out ahead at the end of the day. Then when you found out you could really make some good money, it became far more interesting. Nevertheless, in the beginning it was for fun.
Why do I bring this up? Because I have been miserable of late. Losing day after day for weeks or months on end is horrible on one's spirit. This isn't just in poker. If you do any competitive activity and you lose repeatedly, it isn't going to be fun. This doesn't mean you don't still love to play the game.
So here is my theory, hypothesis, or whatever: I will play poker to have fun so that I will win. I will not play poker to win money so that I have fun.
Friday, June 12, 2009
The Master and Toph
Original House of Pain members, Toph Moore and Jason Dewitt, have each had final table appearances the past two days. Jason finished 3rd in the $1500 Pot Limit Holdem while Toph just finished 4th in the $1500 NLH Shootout. Congrats to both of them on some phenomenal play. Interestingly, in the past 4 years, our house has had a final table appearance 3 times in the $1500 shootout (Jason 6th in 2006 and Tom 4th in 2007).
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
3K HORSE
I got everything I wanted almost - a soft table that wasn't breaking and I played well, but the deck was unkind as I was pretty card dead after the first level (where I picked up 20 big bets). I grinded as long as I could while I watched some pretty weak play. However, in the last level of the night I ran pretty poorly. I lost 99 to AJ and 55 to 62 in holdem before tripling up in O8. My last hand typified the day though as I lost a 6543A to 6532A in Razz with three hands remaining in the day. Winning that pot would have given me some chips (7K) to play with entering day 2.
As long as I keep playing well something has to turn around soon (at least that's what I keep telling myself). As it is, I am still 0 for the series. My next event is the Stud 8/Omaha 8 tourney on Thursday.
As long as I keep playing well something has to turn around soon (at least that's what I keep telling myself). As it is, I am still 0 for the series. My next event is the Stud 8/Omaha 8 tourney on Thursday.
Monday, June 8, 2009
Emotionally Crushed
Pokerwise my confidence is possibly at all-time lows. It feels like everything I do turns out bad or unlucky. I have tried to remain as positive as I can, but it is a constant up hill battle. Desparation can only be useful if funneled into an intense focus. This is where I feel I am. I am focused at the tables as much as I can be. However, each and every bust out takes me just a little lower.
Saturday, June 6, 2009
Not a Stud
In the $1500 Stud, you would expect an easy table in general. Nope, not right now for me. Eli Elezra (big game regular) in seat 8; a donk in seat 7 and 6; Paul Darden in 5 (former world champ in stud), some 50/100 regular from AC in seat 5, a donk in 3, and some guy Eli described as one of the few guys who played bigger Stud games than him in seat 1. So out of 7 seats at my table 4 were either world class or extremely good. Then you throw in the fact that the 3 donks were running hot as hell, and I won 3 hands total in 3 hours, you know the result. WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Dave Matthews Would Be Proud
So I am playing some of my best poker in recent times in today's NLH 6-max, when I decide to hike up my skirt and ruin a good day. I wasn't hitting anything all day long, but I had built up my starting stack of 4500 to 8500 through floats and various bluffs at risk of my whole stack by using my image and reads to perfection. Then in one hand, I don't go with my initial instinct (which would have been to make a huge correct call for my tournament life), and instead of having 17-18k, I was left with 4600. Soon after I ran 77 into KK.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
A Series of Unfortunate Events
0-2
I was very happy with the way yesterday's $1K NLH was going until the last hour of the night. I had grinded a middle to below average stack for a good 4 hours before tripling up over the course of one round to over 30k (the average at the money). I was out about an hour later, after nothing went my way. I busted with 430ish of the 3000 players still left. There are way too many interesting hands to post (basically b/c I'm not really in the mood to take the time :) ).
I also busted in the $1500 O8 on Friday in the middle of the pack. I thought I played pretty well in it, but there is only so much you can do in a limit tourney if the cards aren't falling your way. I grinded it as best as I could, but it wasn't to be.
I get back in action on Monday in the $1500 PLO.
I was very happy with the way yesterday's $1K NLH was going until the last hour of the night. I had grinded a middle to below average stack for a good 4 hours before tripling up over the course of one round to over 30k (the average at the money). I was out about an hour later, after nothing went my way. I busted with 430ish of the 3000 players still left. There are way too many interesting hands to post (basically b/c I'm not really in the mood to take the time :) ).
I also busted in the $1500 O8 on Friday in the middle of the pack. I thought I played pretty well in it, but there is only so much you can do in a limit tourney if the cards aren't falling your way. I grinded it as best as I could, but it wasn't to be.
I get back in action on Monday in the $1500 PLO.
Monday, May 25, 2009
2009 Dubaya Ess Oh Pee
Make or Break, Do or Die, Shit or Get Off the Pot - whatever phrase you want to use to describe a critical time in one's life or career. Over the course of the last 20 months or so my income from poker has dwindled mightily. I'm not sure if this is due to a long stretch of running bad or if I have some leaks I just can't figure out. This is the dilemma almost all poker players face when not making money for any extended period of time, and it is extremely tough emotionally/mentally.
Now I haven't lost money over that time, but I do have a family that I need to support. So I can't just break even forever. My outlay for the series is large enough that a horrible month and a half could make me reconsider my current direction in life. At the same time, the WSOP provides the opportunity to set my family up for years. Obviously the most likely scenario is somewhere in between (win or lose something that isn't too life changing).
As I arrive in Las Vegas this Thursday, my head is not where I want it pokerwise due to my aforementioned results. I have been quick to get down on myself or when bad beats occur. I am working hard to change this, but I admit I haven't been very successful. Everytime I think I have things going in the right direction again, a couple of bad weeks put me right back where I was. It has literally been months on end of 1 or 2 steps forward 1 or 2 steps back. I know one big score can change this. However, I would rather have my emotional outlook fixed internally rather than from an external source. For obvious reasons, this will serve me much better in the long run.
I'm staying with a good group of people (5 of us) in a house for the entire time. Julie and the kids will be coming out for 2 weeks about halfway through the series. My brother will be out for the main event. I expect the support and knowledge of my friends out there to be a big boost. I expect our house to do well. I expect myself to have a good series including a big score. I expect this to be the turn around I have been looking for.
Now I haven't lost money over that time, but I do have a family that I need to support. So I can't just break even forever. My outlay for the series is large enough that a horrible month and a half could make me reconsider my current direction in life. At the same time, the WSOP provides the opportunity to set my family up for years. Obviously the most likely scenario is somewhere in between (win or lose something that isn't too life changing).
As I arrive in Las Vegas this Thursday, my head is not where I want it pokerwise due to my aforementioned results. I have been quick to get down on myself or when bad beats occur. I am working hard to change this, but I admit I haven't been very successful. Everytime I think I have things going in the right direction again, a couple of bad weeks put me right back where I was. It has literally been months on end of 1 or 2 steps forward 1 or 2 steps back. I know one big score can change this. However, I would rather have my emotional outlook fixed internally rather than from an external source. For obvious reasons, this will serve me much better in the long run.
I'm staying with a good group of people (5 of us) in a house for the entire time. Julie and the kids will be coming out for 2 weeks about halfway through the series. My brother will be out for the main event. I expect the support and knowledge of my friends out there to be a big boost. I expect our house to do well. I expect myself to have a good series including a big score. I expect this to be the turn around I have been looking for.
Monday, May 18, 2009
Financial Update
Over the course of last week, I moved most of my clients assets around. For the last 6 months, I have been trying to prepare for this. As some of you have known, I have been waiting for this monstrous rally since October. While it occurred a couple months later than I thought, it nonetheless has been fast and strikingly strong (roughly 35-40% in just over 2 months). Furthermore, I thought that once this rally peetered out, we could find ourselves in the midst of another major leg down. Whether this rally is done or not is yet to be seen, but we are very close to where I thought we would get to (the 200 day moving averages or between 9000-10000 on the Dow Jones). As a result, I have started to get very nervous. I am officially in my uber-conservative portfolio preparing for a potential major downswing. I believe the current risk/reward in the markets is horrible (meaning the upside potential from here is dwarfed by the downside).
Despite my feelings, I have told my clients we could continue to be in an up market maybe even two more years simply due to the massive stimulus the government has supplied. However because I feel this stimulus is nothing more than a short-term jolt (with probably zero potential for long-term GDP growth), once the money runs dry we will be in an even worse position than before. Higher debt levels and higher interest rates will likely be the case. At the point this occurs and the market rolls over, watch out! It could be in the next few weeks or a couple years out. I truly feel the only way we will not go far lower from here in the markets is if the fed allows inflation to run rampant. This will help stocks go up (because earnings will be higher due to the cheapening dollar), but with inflation super high everyone's purchasing power will likely drop substantialy. While the markets will look different under the two scenarios, the end result will be relatively the same. Most people will be far worse off at the end.
My odds:
We don't drop significantly lower from here: 20%
We retest the March lows (mid 6000s on the Dow) within the next 2 years, but they hold: 35%
We break down through the March lows within the next couple years: 45%
Despite my feelings, I have told my clients we could continue to be in an up market maybe even two more years simply due to the massive stimulus the government has supplied. However because I feel this stimulus is nothing more than a short-term jolt (with probably zero potential for long-term GDP growth), once the money runs dry we will be in an even worse position than before. Higher debt levels and higher interest rates will likely be the case. At the point this occurs and the market rolls over, watch out! It could be in the next few weeks or a couple years out. I truly feel the only way we will not go far lower from here in the markets is if the fed allows inflation to run rampant. This will help stocks go up (because earnings will be higher due to the cheapening dollar), but with inflation super high everyone's purchasing power will likely drop substantialy. While the markets will look different under the two scenarios, the end result will be relatively the same. Most people will be far worse off at the end.
My odds:
We don't drop significantly lower from here: 20%
We retest the March lows (mid 6000s on the Dow) within the next 2 years, but they hold: 35%
We break down through the March lows within the next couple years: 45%
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
The Streak is Over!!!!
No we aren't talking about Moon's days as a Single Man, or J's days in a row not waking up before noon. We are talking about my cashless streak in the FTOPS. In an embarrassing admission, I had failed to cash in 36 straight FTOPS events (0 for my last 4 back in November, 0-23 this February, and 0-9 until today in this version). The blind hog found an acorn!!!!!
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
FTOPS (LOL)!
Usually I write about my goals for a series such as this, but after the last FTOPS where I shot a blistering 0-24, I have decided to just see what happens. However, to increase my chances of an ever elusive cash I will also be playing most of the mini-FTOPS as well. I won't be playing every event due to some scheduling conflicts, but most will be played. To say I could use a bankroll jump going into the WSOP is an understatement. I was hoping to be up 50k going into the WSOP, and while I am up on the year, I have a ways to go to get to that goal.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
The Worst Play Ever?!?!
The Situation: A super-satellite with 15 guys moving on. 16 guys remain. ACEHILL69 is in the top 5.
The Hand:
PokerStars Game #27408180382: Tournament #156609625, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (2000/4000) - 2009/04/23 13:32:47 ETTable '156609625 10' 9-max
Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: jack1oo (6450 in chips)
Seat 2: kajjorg (17230 in chips)
Seat 4: Noctambulist (20355 in chips)
Seat 5: neela (54878 in chips)
Seat 6: budman1 (21570 in chips)
Seat 7: ACEHILL93 (32462 in chips)
Seat 8: gofast111 (13230 in chips)
jack1oo: posts the ante 400
kajjorg: posts the ante 400
Noctambulist: posts the ante 400
neela: posts the ante 400
budman1: posts the ante 400
ACEHILL93: posts the ante 400
gofast111: posts the ante 400
neela: posts small blind 2000
budman1: posts big blind 4000
*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to budman1 [Qs 3c]
ACEHILL93: raises 4000 to 8000
gofast111: folds
jack1oo: folds
kajjorg: folds
Noctambulist: folds
neela: calls 6000
budman1: folds
*** FLOP *** [2c 4h 4d]
neela: checks
ACEHILL93: checks
*** TURN *** [2c 4h 4d] [5d]
neela: bets 12000
ACEHILL93: calls 12000
*** RIVER *** [2c 4h 4d 5d] [6c]
neela: bets 12000
ACEHILL93: calls 12000 (leaving himself 63 in chips)
*** SHOW DOWN ***
neela: shows [5s 7s] (two pair, Fives and Fours)
ACEHILL93: mucks hand
neela collected 70800 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 70800 Rake 0
Board [2c 4h 4d 5d 6c]
Seat 5: neela (small blind) showed [5s 7s] and won (70800) with two pair, Fives and Fours
Seat 7: ACEHILL93 mucked [Jh Ah]
The Hand:
PokerStars Game #27408180382: Tournament #156609625, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (2000/4000) - 2009/04/23 13:32:47 ETTable '156609625 10' 9-max
Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: jack1oo (6450 in chips)
Seat 2: kajjorg (17230 in chips)
Seat 4: Noctambulist (20355 in chips)
Seat 5: neela (54878 in chips)
Seat 6: budman1 (21570 in chips)
Seat 7: ACEHILL93 (32462 in chips)
Seat 8: gofast111 (13230 in chips)
jack1oo: posts the ante 400
kajjorg: posts the ante 400
Noctambulist: posts the ante 400
neela: posts the ante 400
budman1: posts the ante 400
ACEHILL93: posts the ante 400
gofast111: posts the ante 400
neela: posts small blind 2000
budman1: posts big blind 4000
*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to budman1 [Qs 3c]
ACEHILL93: raises 4000 to 8000
gofast111: folds
jack1oo: folds
kajjorg: folds
Noctambulist: folds
neela: calls 6000
budman1: folds
*** FLOP *** [2c 4h 4d]
neela: checks
ACEHILL93: checks
*** TURN *** [2c 4h 4d] [5d]
neela: bets 12000
ACEHILL93: calls 12000
*** RIVER *** [2c 4h 4d 5d] [6c]
neela: bets 12000
ACEHILL93: calls 12000 (leaving himself 63 in chips)
*** SHOW DOWN ***
neela: shows [5s 7s] (two pair, Fives and Fours)
ACEHILL93: mucks hand
neela collected 70800 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 70800 Rake 0
Board [2c 4h 4d 5d 6c]
Seat 5: neela (small blind) showed [5s 7s] and won (70800) with two pair, Fives and Fours
Seat 7: ACEHILL93 mucked [Jh Ah]
Friday, April 17, 2009
Eye of the Hurricane
Like standing in the eye of the hurricane, to the uneducated it may seem like the worst is done. The sun may come out for a time; the wind dies down almost completely; and for a moment hope takes over. However to the knowledgable, this is only a small respite with the worst possibly still to come.
The long awaited bear market rally I thought would come late last year has been in place for over a month now. Could this be the start of a new bull market?...yes. However, the likelihood of that in my opinion is definitely less than 50%. All that has happened is the government has thrown trillions of dollars into the economy and into banks to try to stop the tidal wave. This will obviously help, but probably only short-term. For one thing, the great majority of this money has not been used for anything that will help the economy over the long-run. Just like in '02 when the fed dropped interest rates drastically, the market rallied. However, giving easy money to people and the United States as a whole, is a horrible approach when the debt levels are already at historic highs. There are no free lunches! If I gave a person with 100k of debt and an annual income of 20K another 100k that he must spend; he will have some fun for a while and may even feel more wealthy. Yet, when the debt has to be repaid and his job still pays the same, he isn't better off. In fact, he is far worse off! Where we are right now is in the midst of the fun money spending.
I could see this lasting anywhere from a couple more months to maybe a year or more. However, when it does end, it will be ugly with a capital U G L Y. My high end expectation on the DJIA is around 10,000. So I think this rally could have a ways to go. During this time, gold will likely continue to suffer (with a max downside target of $700/oz, it is currently at $870/oz) as people believe the worst is behind us. I expect this to be the last great buying opportunity for it for some time (for silver too). By the end of the market's bounce, most individuals and market professionals will believe the bear market is long gone and start putting all their cash back into play. The overall mood will probably be borderline exuberant again despite that the underlying fundamentals of the economy will have not improved much or at all.
Remember, this is just my best guess. I would put my estimate at maybe 60-70% likelihood. Another scenraio is just a retest of the March lows in the 6500 range on the DJIA (10-20%). The last and best case scenario would be that we already hit the lows and the future is bright (10-20%).
Amendment: I just listened to a great interview talking about economics and the current state of the economy. I would strongly recommend this not just for a learning tool, but also as a must know for anyone concerned about the direction of our government and in particular the fed.
Here is the link (it is the April 11th episode 2nd Hour): http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html
The long awaited bear market rally I thought would come late last year has been in place for over a month now. Could this be the start of a new bull market?...yes. However, the likelihood of that in my opinion is definitely less than 50%. All that has happened is the government has thrown trillions of dollars into the economy and into banks to try to stop the tidal wave. This will obviously help, but probably only short-term. For one thing, the great majority of this money has not been used for anything that will help the economy over the long-run. Just like in '02 when the fed dropped interest rates drastically, the market rallied. However, giving easy money to people and the United States as a whole, is a horrible approach when the debt levels are already at historic highs. There are no free lunches! If I gave a person with 100k of debt and an annual income of 20K another 100k that he must spend; he will have some fun for a while and may even feel more wealthy. Yet, when the debt has to be repaid and his job still pays the same, he isn't better off. In fact, he is far worse off! Where we are right now is in the midst of the fun money spending.
I could see this lasting anywhere from a couple more months to maybe a year or more. However, when it does end, it will be ugly with a capital U G L Y. My high end expectation on the DJIA is around 10,000. So I think this rally could have a ways to go. During this time, gold will likely continue to suffer (with a max downside target of $700/oz, it is currently at $870/oz) as people believe the worst is behind us. I expect this to be the last great buying opportunity for it for some time (for silver too). By the end of the market's bounce, most individuals and market professionals will believe the bear market is long gone and start putting all their cash back into play. The overall mood will probably be borderline exuberant again despite that the underlying fundamentals of the economy will have not improved much or at all.
Remember, this is just my best guess. I would put my estimate at maybe 60-70% likelihood. Another scenraio is just a retest of the March lows in the 6500 range on the DJIA (10-20%). The last and best case scenario would be that we already hit the lows and the future is bright (10-20%).
Amendment: I just listened to a great interview talking about economics and the current state of the economy. I would strongly recommend this not just for a learning tool, but also as a must know for anyone concerned about the direction of our government and in particular the fed.
Here is the link (it is the April 11th episode 2nd Hour): http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html
Friday, April 10, 2009
da Blues!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
A few weeks back, I wrote about the St. Louis Blues and the ridiculous run they've been on. Well, tonight they clinched a playoff birth for the first time since the lockout. This had to be one of the most improbable scenarios the NHL has seen in years. At the midway point of the season, the Blues were 16-22-3 for a mere 35 points. They were anywhere from 8 to 12 points behind the playoff contenders and sat in last place (15th) in the conference. In the last 40 games (they still have 1 left on Sunday), they have gone 24-8-7 for 55 points. This is tops in the league over that time, and they did it without their top 2 defensemen (Brewer and Johnson) and arguably their top offensive player (Kariya). Half the players on the roster are 25 or younger. This video is just one reason the fans love these young guns. I can't wait to watch them in the playoffs starting next week.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
SCOOPilicious!
I just scooped a SCOOP. I won the $30 Stud H/L tourney in Pokerstars SCOOP for just under 10k. I beat out over 3000 people for the title. I ran pretty well, but the competition was so soft it didn't really matter. There were only a handful of decent players I even saw the whole way. However, I am really tired so that's all I got.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
How Geitner, the Fed and the Government continue to try to @#$% us!
The following is a very good explanation of what Geitner's new bank plan will likely do to the American taxpayer:
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Toph Cooks Up a Pi
Congrats to Chris (Toph) Moore on his 3rd place finish at the Shooting Star. In what has been a recurring dream for him, every mid March he plays a 10K event and finishes in the top 3. In 2007, it was a 3rd at the Wynn Classic. Last year, it was a win in the same Wynn Classic. So why didn't he play the Wynn Classic again this year? It started on the same day as this tourney, and because of that they weren't expecting much more than 50 players. Toph opted for the Shooting Star instead. I guess this means next year, he will win this tourney if history repeats.
In addition, about a month ago Toph got 2nd in the 10k HU tourney at the LAPC. With both of these finishes, he should move into 5th or 6th in card players POY standings.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
KABOOM!!!!!
Today the fed dropped a bomb on the markets. They announced basically that they are going to be purchasing $1.1 trillion dollars of agency debt and treasuries. This is called monetizing the debt, and essentially is creating money out of thin air. Upon announcing this interest rates plummeted (refinance if you can BTW), the dollar plummeted (get rid of your dollars), and gold skyrocketed (getcha some). Short-term this will likely provide a boost to the economy because of the liquidity it will provide, but long-term this is very bad for the US unless the government/fed is extremely careful. Historically the government has never been good at pulling out of the market effectively. When they do try to withdraw the liquidity, our economy will likely freeze up again, and if they don't withdraw it, inflation will likely spike much higher. In the meantime, we continue to go more and more into debt.
Ironically, the people on CNBC pretty much called Bernanke a genius, and seemed to think this was the best thing since sliced bread (or at least the best thing since the last time the fed did something similar). They are so short-sighted it is unbelievable. If the potential effects of any action are further than a few months out, they ignore it. Did anyone talk about what this may do 3 years from now? Give me a break! Kramer about blew his wad talking about how everyone can refinance their mortgages now at even better rates (which they can and I would advise), but as before this is what led us into the current problem - EASY MONEY! Throw money at it! What did Greenspan do everytime there was a problem? Throw money at it! What has Bernanke done every time? Throw money at it! Give the drunk his drink - that'll solve the problem.
The only (I repeat only) way to grow an economy is to actually produce something or provide some useful service. You can't create money out of thin air to grow an economy. Sure everyone will have more of it, but each additional dollar purchases less goods due to inflation. So you aren't any better off. In fact, the economy is actually worse off because the government (or better put - the taxpayer, you and I) has a larger interest payment each year.
Here is my advice:
1) Refinance if you can.
2) Instead of spending the money you save each month from refinancing (which is what the government hopes everyone will do, but will just make you worse off), put it in precious metals or pay off any debt (if you have some). Essentially make your self wealthier. Another idea is to buy nonperishable goods. I expect food prices may rise substantially in the next couple years. Stockpiling some food that doesn't go bad can't hurt you, but may help.
3) Do not keep alot of US Dollars. This can be done by buying ETFs that invest in foreign currencies (such as the Canadian Dollar - symbol FXC, or Austrailian Dollar - symbol FXA). Gold/silver purchases serve this purpose also.
4) Pray that the mess our government is getting us deeper and deeper into doesn't explode.
I could go on and on about this, but if you want to talk about it more, just give me a call.
Ironically, the people on CNBC pretty much called Bernanke a genius, and seemed to think this was the best thing since sliced bread (or at least the best thing since the last time the fed did something similar). They are so short-sighted it is unbelievable. If the potential effects of any action are further than a few months out, they ignore it. Did anyone talk about what this may do 3 years from now? Give me a break! Kramer about blew his wad talking about how everyone can refinance their mortgages now at even better rates (which they can and I would advise), but as before this is what led us into the current problem - EASY MONEY! Throw money at it! What did Greenspan do everytime there was a problem? Throw money at it! What has Bernanke done every time? Throw money at it! Give the drunk his drink - that'll solve the problem.
The only (I repeat only) way to grow an economy is to actually produce something or provide some useful service. You can't create money out of thin air to grow an economy. Sure everyone will have more of it, but each additional dollar purchases less goods due to inflation. So you aren't any better off. In fact, the economy is actually worse off because the government (or better put - the taxpayer, you and I) has a larger interest payment each year.
Here is my advice:
1) Refinance if you can.
2) Instead of spending the money you save each month from refinancing (which is what the government hopes everyone will do, but will just make you worse off), put it in precious metals or pay off any debt (if you have some). Essentially make your self wealthier. Another idea is to buy nonperishable goods. I expect food prices may rise substantially in the next couple years. Stockpiling some food that doesn't go bad can't hurt you, but may help.
3) Do not keep alot of US Dollars. This can be done by buying ETFs that invest in foreign currencies (such as the Canadian Dollar - symbol FXC, or Austrailian Dollar - symbol FXA). Gold/silver purchases serve this purpose also.
4) Pray that the mess our government is getting us deeper and deeper into doesn't explode.
I could go on and on about this, but if you want to talk about it more, just give me a call.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Fun Days
Today marks the beginning of my favorite week of sports - the first four days of March Madness. This is by far the best format of any championship event out there.
However, there is something else out there on my sports horizon: the St. Louis Blues. I have always been a huge Blues fan, but since the lockout, they have been the league's cellar dwellar. Yet in the last couple years under new management, a dramtaic turnaround is in the works. Earlier this year they were at least 10 points out of the playoffs and in last place in the conference. This wasn't totally unexpected as one of the youngest and most injured teams. Their two best defenseman, and one of their top offensive players are out for the year. Throw in a bunch of other top line players who have missed a handful of games and your starting goalie getting placed on waivers, you have the recipe for a long year with the young guys getting their feet wet in the NHL.
Nevertheless, coach Andy Murray has them playing their asses off every game. Now they are one of the hottest teams in the league, and sit a mere 1 point out of the playoffs with less than 15 games left for all the teams. The Blues youngsters are a blast to watch. TJ Oshie (age 22 and easily my favorite player to watch - picture the tasmanian devil from cartoons on skates), Patrik Berglund (age 20), David Backes (age 24), and David Perron (age 20) have Blues fans salivating at the future of this team. In addition, Eric Johnson (age 20) is our top defenseman and one of the guys out for the year. They may not make the playoffs this year because their upcoming schedule is ridiculously tough, but I will be surprised if this team doesn't make a serious run for the Cup within the next three years. If they can keep these guys together for a while, you may be seeing the beginning of the next dynasty in the NHL.
However, there is something else out there on my sports horizon: the St. Louis Blues. I have always been a huge Blues fan, but since the lockout, they have been the league's cellar dwellar. Yet in the last couple years under new management, a dramtaic turnaround is in the works. Earlier this year they were at least 10 points out of the playoffs and in last place in the conference. This wasn't totally unexpected as one of the youngest and most injured teams. Their two best defenseman, and one of their top offensive players are out for the year. Throw in a bunch of other top line players who have missed a handful of games and your starting goalie getting placed on waivers, you have the recipe for a long year with the young guys getting their feet wet in the NHL.
Nevertheless, coach Andy Murray has them playing their asses off every game. Now they are one of the hottest teams in the league, and sit a mere 1 point out of the playoffs with less than 15 games left for all the teams. The Blues youngsters are a blast to watch. TJ Oshie (age 22 and easily my favorite player to watch - picture the tasmanian devil from cartoons on skates), Patrik Berglund (age 20), David Backes (age 24), and David Perron (age 20) have Blues fans salivating at the future of this team. In addition, Eric Johnson (age 20) is our top defenseman and one of the guys out for the year. They may not make the playoffs this year because their upcoming schedule is ridiculously tough, but I will be surprised if this team doesn't make a serious run for the Cup within the next three years. If they can keep these guys together for a while, you may be seeing the beginning of the next dynasty in the NHL.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
KK
I never knew I'd hate KK so much. In seven NLH tourneys today I ran KK into AA four times. Three times it busted me (with two being late in fairly big tourneys for a big stack) and once it crippled me in the Sunday Million. I lost with it a couple times vs Ax hands also. On a good note (I guess), I've gone from not cashing at all to inconsequential cashes. Next step ???????????
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Tailspin
Since the beginning of February, I have basically lost money almost every single day I've played poker. I am still up on the year due to my one nice win, but what was once a great start to the year has turned into the SOS (same old .....) I've been struggling through for the better part of nine months or more. I wish I could get a grip on what I may be doing wrong, or if this is just one massive semi-cold streak. I haven't cashed in 24 straight tourneys. This comes right after my streak of 27 straight. Cash games haven't been any better.
For example, today I played four hours of PLO on 2 tables (2/4 and 3/6). I did not win one large pot the entire time. In fact, the largest pot I did win was a triple barrel bluff. I made a fair amount of moves and almost all of them worked, and yet at the end of the session I was down nearly $1500 because every single big pot got pushed to my opponent. It was one of the more frustrating sessions I've ever played due to the fact I felt I played really well and didn't land one big pot. Keep in mind this is PLO. Big pots happen very regularly. This is how it seems things have been going for a while. The problem is - is my objectivity objective enough. I keep feeling I must be doing something wrong even though it doesn't seem so to me. Any concrete help is very welcome.
For example, today I played four hours of PLO on 2 tables (2/4 and 3/6). I did not win one large pot the entire time. In fact, the largest pot I did win was a triple barrel bluff. I made a fair amount of moves and almost all of them worked, and yet at the end of the session I was down nearly $1500 because every single big pot got pushed to my opponent. It was one of the more frustrating sessions I've ever played due to the fact I felt I played really well and didn't land one big pot. Keep in mind this is PLO. Big pots happen very regularly. This is how it seems things have been going for a while. The problem is - is my objectivity objective enough. I keep feeling I must be doing something wrong even though it doesn't seem so to me. Any concrete help is very welcome.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Gold/Silver Update
I first mentioned gold on here on October 24. I then outright pleaded for people to get some in their investment portfolios on November 6th. Here is what has happened since then in the S&P 500 and the five gold/silver holding I have in many portfolios:
_______10/24__11/6__Today_____Returns
S&P 500 870.4__ 908.6_ 791.30__ -9.09% -12.91%
Gold____ 737___ 737___ 975____ 32.29% 32.29%
Silver___ 9.23__ 10.00_ 14.18___ 53.63% 41.80%
GDX___ 17.80__ 21.93_ 36.66 ___105.96% 67.17%
AUY___ 4.03___ 4.67__ 9.40___ 133.25% 101.29%
SLW ___3.44___ 3.73__ 7.33____ 113.08% 96.52%
Who knows what will happen tomorrow. Maybe all of these will plummet, but I will say I still hold all of these. I don't plan on selling them for the foreseeable future due to the governments continued efforts to throw money at anything they see as troubled. While gold, silver and their stocks may have a pullback due to the incredible runs they've had recently, I fully believe they all have much higher to go. I hope everyone took my recommendation, but if you still have yet to get into them, the best way to do so at this point is probably to average in.
_______10/24__11/6__Today_____Returns
S&P 500 870.4__ 908.6_ 791.30__ -9.09% -12.91%
Gold____ 737___ 737___ 975____ 32.29% 32.29%
Silver___ 9.23__ 10.00_ 14.18___ 53.63% 41.80%
GDX___ 17.80__ 21.93_ 36.66 ___105.96% 67.17%
AUY___ 4.03___ 4.67__ 9.40___ 133.25% 101.29%
SLW ___3.44___ 3.73__ 7.33____ 113.08% 96.52%
Who knows what will happen tomorrow. Maybe all of these will plummet, but I will say I still hold all of these. I don't plan on selling them for the foreseeable future due to the governments continued efforts to throw money at anything they see as troubled. While gold, silver and their stocks may have a pullback due to the incredible runs they've had recently, I fully believe they all have much higher to go. I hope everyone took my recommendation, but if you still have yet to get into them, the best way to do so at this point is probably to average in.
Monday, February 16, 2009
NCAA Bball
I've been thinking over the past couple days what the top 5 programs are historically in NCAA hoops. You can use whatever criteria you think are most important. However, this isn't a current list, but a historical list. My top five are:
1) Kansas
2) UCLA
3) North Carolina
4) Indiana
5) Kentucky
Ironically, I don't like any of these teams. There is a good chance I missed a team because I didn't look anything up. I just tried to think through the various conferences. Let me know what you think.
1) Kansas
2) UCLA
3) North Carolina
4) Indiana
5) Kentucky
Ironically, I don't like any of these teams. There is a good chance I missed a team because I didn't look anything up. I just tried to think through the various conferences. Let me know what you think.
Friday, February 13, 2009
Hall of Shame
Play while you read this post (2008 House of Pain people will understand)
What do the following all have in common (this should be easy for any halfway decent sports trivia buff):
Mexico 9 (FIFA World CUP)
Washington Capitols/San Jose Sharks 17 (NHL)
Cleveland Indians 24 (MLB)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 (NFL)
Anthony Young 27 (MLB - P)
PiMaster 25 (FTOPS)
The answer, of course, is they all are the longest losing streaks in their respective sports (ties not included). Yes, I have gone an incredible 25 straight FTOPS events without a cash. Four occurred last series, and the first twenty-one events of this series. To be honest, I haven't even gotten close to a cash. Given my historical cash rate of about 20%, this has approximately a 0.38% (.8^25) chance of occurring during any 25 tourneys (or about 1 in 265). So while it is very improbable, it will occur on rare occasion. I have about the same likelihood of cashing 11 times (0.40%) during any 25 events (I won't explain that math for you - it's a little more detailed).
The good news (I guess) is that it is unlikely to occur again in my lifetime for the FTOPS. However, it will likely happen again through just regular tournament play online. Interestingly, if your cash rate is around 15% (still decent), this has a 1.72% chance of happening (merely 1 in 58). This shows how streaky poker can be.
The last time I had a series go this poorly to start was the 2007 WSOP. I bricked out on the first 16 events that year, but I bailed myself out in the Main Event to only end the series down a tad. It would be a nice de ja vu if it could happen again. I have three events left I plan on playing - PLO w/ Rbs, NLH Bounty, and the Main Event.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Detroit Lions or House of Pain?
---Guest Writer------
Tom Fuller recently wrote a blog on 2010 Super Bowl Odds. The Detroit Lions are getting 100/1 to win the Super Bowl next year. The Lions turned in a terrible season in 09 and it doesn't look too promising in the future.
On a similar note, House of Pain is now 1/39 in cashes in the FTOPs. I have no clue where the team standsin the Pocket 5s contest, being that this is Matt Viox writing this blog, but I would give the House of Pain a slight edge over the Detroit Lions. I more importantly hope this team can just finish strong with their heads high as this has been an embarrassment to all friends and family. With Ben Lamb having the only cash for the squad, I'm sure he is looking to jump ship after his free agency is up in March. I don't know how much other teams will be looking at him, with the underperforming season he is currently having, but Pi and J will have a much tougher time finding someone to join them next FTOPS. The market for players is already competitive, and considering Pi's social skills and J's sleeping habits, the House of Pain faces a huge hurdle. It is necessary that this team finish with at least 2 final tables out of the remaining tournaments in order to attract players in the future. Yes, this team is in shambles, but I think they can do it. I bet on House of Pain.
Tom Fuller recently wrote a blog on 2010 Super Bowl Odds. The Detroit Lions are getting 100/1 to win the Super Bowl next year. The Lions turned in a terrible season in 09 and it doesn't look too promising in the future.
On a similar note, House of Pain is now 1/39 in cashes in the FTOPs. I have no clue where the team standsin the Pocket 5s contest, being that this is Matt Viox writing this blog, but I would give the House of Pain a slight edge over the Detroit Lions. I more importantly hope this team can just finish strong with their heads high as this has been an embarrassment to all friends and family. With Ben Lamb having the only cash for the squad, I'm sure he is looking to jump ship after his free agency is up in March. I don't know how much other teams will be looking at him, with the underperforming season he is currently having, but Pi and J will have a much tougher time finding someone to join them next FTOPS. The market for players is already competitive, and considering Pi's social skills and J's sleeping habits, the House of Pain faces a huge hurdle. It is necessary that this team finish with at least 2 final tables out of the remaining tournaments in order to attract players in the future. Yes, this team is in shambles, but I think they can do it. I bet on House of Pain.
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Now Exactly How I Imagined It
FTOPS Summary:
Me 0-10
J 0-10
Ben 1-10
Now we are not out of it yet because there are still 15 events left. However, we are definitely behind the 8-ball. We sit in 7th place. I will say right now, things could not have gone worse, and I expect a big week. Will it be enough? I'm not sure. Check back and see.
Me 0-10
J 0-10
Ben 1-10
Now we are not out of it yet because there are still 15 events left. However, we are definitely behind the 8-ball. We sit in 7th place. I will say right now, things could not have gone worse, and I expect a big week. Will it be enough? I'm not sure. Check back and see.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Update through 3 Events
The good news - we are in first place in total points. The bad news - we really only have two scores that are any good. In reality, we are more likely in about 4th place when you look at the top 3 scores. We have to use 24 scores and their are 25 events. So essentially 1 score on average per event is used. The reason we are leading is our bad scores (scores that eventually won't be used once enough scores are in) are better than the other teams, but they are pointless in the whole scheme of things.
I have yet to cash. I haven't really been close, nor has J. However, Ben has had one deep run and another decent run. He has our two scores that are good so far.
By the way, here are the other 10 teams:
1) mig.com, apestyles, peachymer
2) jse81, TheFatFish, The_D__RY
3) NEONPILS99, captinbiskut, shipitobv
4) bigdogpckt5s, imabigkidnow, dipthrong
5) ckingusc, ScoopandStack, Thay3r
6) titantom32, UFMan2, mjr2369
7) govshark2, gimmeda1time, chicagocards1
8) JCarver, Moorman1, GetPWN3d
9) GeoffRas22, tedsfishfry, Bussa Bus
10) rusostreet, sampson724, truesylose
The first 2 teams are the ones I think are the biggest competition.
I have yet to cash. I haven't really been close, nor has J. However, Ben has had one deep run and another decent run. He has our two scores that are good so far.
By the way, here are the other 10 teams:
1) mig.com, apestyles, peachymer
2) jse81, TheFatFish, The_D__RY
3) NEONPILS99, captinbiskut, shipitobv
4) bigdogpckt5s, imabigkidnow, dipthrong
5) ckingusc, ScoopandStack, Thay3r
6) titantom32, UFMan2, mjr2369
7) govshark2, gimmeda1time, chicagocards1
8) JCarver, Moorman1, GetPWN3d
9) GeoffRas22, tedsfishfry, Bussa Bus
10) rusostreet, sampson724, truesylose
The first 2 teams are the ones I think are the biggest competition.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
FTOPS XI
Once again I have gotten in the Pocket 5's team event. This time my teammates are Jason Dewitt and Ben Lamb (TheMasterJ33 and benba). It looks like it will have around 12-15 teams I think. I would lay our odds at about 4 to 1 to win even though we are facing some perceived stiff competition. They will be paying 2 spots (unless we reach 20 teams), and I would think our chances of "cashing" are 33%. Despite the big names in the contest, a handful of teams will not play enough events (this always happens and unless they go off, they have no real shot), and another handful are just NLH specialists (this group has a small edge in the NLH events, but a huge disadvantage in the other games). You can follow the contest here:
http://ftops.pocketfives.com/ I will also likely provide updates every day or two.
My tentative schedule will include every event but the 5K event (unless I get a big score or satellite in). This will be 24 events and I'd like 5 cashes minimum. A final table is always one of my goals, and a win would be the icing on the cake to continue the solid start I've had in 2009.
http://ftops.pocketfives.com/ I will also likely provide updates every day or two.
My tentative schedule will include every event but the 5K event (unless I get a big score or satellite in). This will be 24 events and I'd like 5 cashes minimum. A final table is always one of my goals, and a win would be the icing on the cake to continue the solid start I've had in 2009.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
A Good Start
Yesterday capped off my a very good month in poker when I placed 3rd in a $200 PLO tourney on Full Tilt for $5200. I really should have won this thing considering I had over 70% of the chips in play with 3 of us left, and the other two guys were fairly bad. However, PLO is still PLO and when you miss two wraps and get AA cracked twice a good thing can turn sour quickly. In the 50 MTT's I played during the month I had 4 second tables and 3 final tables (placing 1st, 3rd and 6th).
Cash games also went well for me. I have been focusing almost solely on PLO. Even though I am playing fairly low limits (2/4 to 5/10), I have been consistently making about 20 big bets an hour/table. I don't know how long this will continue, but I feel like the games are fairly easy and am completely in a comfort zone right now.
January of '09 was my 7th best month ever. More significantly though, it was my 2nd best month since the summer of '07. Interestingly, 6 of my top 10 months occurred in the magical year of '06 capped off by Paul's 2nd place finish in the big one. I doubt I will ever have a year like that again where everything went right from day 1 until day 365. I'm not saying I won't ever make more money in a year because there is some likelihood I will have a major score one day that eclipses that year all in one fell swoop.
In any case, I hope January is a harbinger for the year. The "Year of the Ox" is off to a good start.
Cash games also went well for me. I have been focusing almost solely on PLO. Even though I am playing fairly low limits (2/4 to 5/10), I have been consistently making about 20 big bets an hour/table. I don't know how long this will continue, but I feel like the games are fairly easy and am completely in a comfort zone right now.
January of '09 was my 7th best month ever. More significantly though, it was my 2nd best month since the summer of '07. Interestingly, 6 of my top 10 months occurred in the magical year of '06 capped off by Paul's 2nd place finish in the big one. I doubt I will ever have a year like that again where everything went right from day 1 until day 365. I'm not saying I won't ever make more money in a year because there is some likelihood I will have a major score one day that eclipses that year all in one fell swoop.
In any case, I hope January is a harbinger for the year. The "Year of the Ox" is off to a good start.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
A Changing Tide???
The two following rulings may be the start of something good for the online poker industry:
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/article/5939/pennsylvania-judge-rules-poker-is-a-game-of-skill
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/article/5940/kentucky-appeals-court-says-dont-touch-domain-names
1) Finally a judge that doesn't use outdated historical precedent to make a ruling
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/article/5939/pennsylvania-judge-rules-poker-is-a-game-of-skill
2) Well this one is and has been completely ridiculous from the beginning
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/article/5940/kentucky-appeals-court-says-dont-touch-domain-names
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Massive Relief
I just took down a 4000+ player $55 tourney in Stars for 26K. I'm wasn't even feeling happy right afterwards. It was like a weight was lifted off my shoulders, and I just felt very relieved. I haven't made much money for a while, and even though this isn't a huge score, it sure goes a long way for me right now. To say I needed it is an understatement. Hopefully, this is a sign of a change going forward.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Courtesy Poker Blog
Semi standard hand but I enjoyed the talking afterwards:
Stage #1410839822 Tourney ID 2118847 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament Pot Limit $40 - 2009-01-15 21:17:55 (ET)Table: 14 (Real Money) Seat #7 is the dealer
Seat 1 - ASSEENONTV ($3137.50 in chips)
Seat 2 - PIMASTER ($4227.50 in chips)
Seat 3 - HEAVENSMONEY ($3460 in chips)
Seat 4 - ZILEX69 ($742.50 in chips)
Seat 5 - MYNINETOFIVE ($2360 in chips)
Seat 6 - 3BARRELEDU ($4325 in chips)
Seat 7 - BLUEBAYOU17 ($3140 in chips)
Seat 8 - 2DIMES ($2810 in chips)
Seat 9 - LUCKYACES08 ($2747.50 in chips)
2DIMES - Posts small blind $20
LUCKYACES08 - Posts big blind $40
*** POCKET CARDS ***Dealt to PIMASTER [10d 10h]
ASSEENONTV - Folds
PIMASTER - Raises $100 to $100
HEAVENSMONEY - Calls $100 (cant fold pre)
ZILEX69 - Folds
MYNINETOFIVE - Folds
3BARRELEDU - Folds
BLUEBAYOU17 - Folds
2DIMES - Folds
LUCKYACES08 - Folds
*** FLOP *** [8s Kd 9c]
PIMASTER - Bets $150
HEAVENSMONEY - Calls $150
*** TURN *** [8s Kd 9c] [3d]
PIMASTER - Checks (he cant help bluffing)
HEAVENSMONEY - Bets $280
PIMASTER - Calls $280
*** RIVER *** [8s Kd 9c 3d] [6s]
PIMASTER - Checks
HEAVENSMONEY - Bets $1120
PIMASTER - Calls $1120
*** SHOW DOWN ***HEAVENSMONEY - Shows [10s Qd] (king high)
PIMASTER - Shows [10d 10h] (One pair, tens)
PIMASTER Collects $3360 from main pot
HEAVENSMONEY: man what a bs call
PIMASTER: ty!
PIMASTER: bs means big stud right?
HEAVENSMONEY: keep calling me next time youll double me up punk
PIMASTER: that wont hurt too much anymore
Stage #1410839822 Tourney ID 2118847 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament Pot Limit $40 - 2009-01-15 21:17:55 (ET)Table: 14 (Real Money) Seat #7 is the dealer
Seat 1 - ASSEENONTV ($3137.50 in chips)
Seat 2 - PIMASTER ($4227.50 in chips)
Seat 3 - HEAVENSMONEY ($3460 in chips)
Seat 4 - ZILEX69 ($742.50 in chips)
Seat 5 - MYNINETOFIVE ($2360 in chips)
Seat 6 - 3BARRELEDU ($4325 in chips)
Seat 7 - BLUEBAYOU17 ($3140 in chips)
Seat 8 - 2DIMES ($2810 in chips)
Seat 9 - LUCKYACES08 ($2747.50 in chips)
2DIMES - Posts small blind $20
LUCKYACES08 - Posts big blind $40
*** POCKET CARDS ***Dealt to PIMASTER [10d 10h]
ASSEENONTV - Folds
PIMASTER - Raises $100 to $100
HEAVENSMONEY - Calls $100 (cant fold pre)
ZILEX69 - Folds
MYNINETOFIVE - Folds
3BARRELEDU - Folds
BLUEBAYOU17 - Folds
2DIMES - Folds
LUCKYACES08 - Folds
*** FLOP *** [8s Kd 9c]
PIMASTER - Bets $150
HEAVENSMONEY - Calls $150
*** TURN *** [8s Kd 9c] [3d]
PIMASTER - Checks (he cant help bluffing)
HEAVENSMONEY - Bets $280
PIMASTER - Calls $280
*** RIVER *** [8s Kd 9c 3d] [6s]
PIMASTER - Checks
HEAVENSMONEY - Bets $1120
PIMASTER - Calls $1120
*** SHOW DOWN ***HEAVENSMONEY - Shows [10s Qd] (king high)
PIMASTER - Shows [10d 10h] (One pair, tens)
PIMASTER Collects $3360 from main pot
HEAVENSMONEY: man what a bs call
PIMASTER: ty!
PIMASTER: bs means big stud right?
HEAVENSMONEY: keep calling me next time youll double me up punk
PIMASTER: that wont hurt too much anymore
Thursday, January 1, 2009
Happy New Year!
..............and #$^%^& 2008.
Hopefully, a year from now I won't be regretting that statement and longing for the glory(?) days of 2008.
Hopefully, a year from now I won't be regretting that statement and longing for the glory(?) days of 2008.
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