A Slice of Pi

Mission Accomplished!

2011-06-25T11:22:00.000-07:00

I got me a bracelet.

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/11530-world-series-of-poker-chris-viox-wins-1-500-seven-card-stud-eight-or-better-event

Full Tilt

2010-07-19T18:22:00.000-07:00

The market/government is tilting me
poker is tilting me
and unfortunately I'm even getting tilted by friends

Things better turn around soon....

Good thing I'm on vacation, even though I'm not enjoying as much as I should

Watch Out!!!

2010-06-30T10:44:00.000-07:00

If/when the market drops below current levels many technicians believe we could test last year's lows. We have tested current levels at least 3 times and rebounded every time, but each rebound has been weaker and weaker. As I've said in the past our "economic recovery" was based solely on governments around the world throwing money into the pot and hoping it works somehow. Now the money is spent, debt levels have risen to dangerous levels, and we are worse off as a result. Naturally, a retest is not a sure thing, but each day that passes makes it look more and more likely.

We need to shrink the government and get our fiscal house in order. This is going to be a painful process because so many people are sucking on the government's tit. However, look at virtually every country in history, and you will see that the larger a government gets relative to the private sector, the worse the country does economically. This is not my opinion, do your own research. Our government is getting larger by leaps and bounds. We need to return America to the people, and return to the principles this great country was founded on.

Note: Two hours after I wrote this the market dropped 1% in the last half hour of trading to go below the support levels.

Update from Vegas

2010-06-21T09:59:00.000-07:00

I've been on a bit of a cold streak since my early four cashes. I did have two near cashes in the $2500 PLO and the $1500 HORSE. Surprisingly, I am still very focused and energized, but I am looking forward to seeing my family on the 7th of July. I still have a handful of events left including the big daddy of them all. My next event is tomorrow - $1500 PLO8. This event is one of the ones I've been looking forward to for a while.

World Cup Pool

2010-06-10T02:13:00.000-07:00

Four of us in the house have ponied up some money for a World Cup 2010 pool. We did a snake style draft for all 32 teams using the following scoring system:

Points in pool play = what your team earns (3 pts for a win, 1 for a tie)
Bonus pts if your team wins its pool = 3 pts, gets 2nd in its pool = 2 pts
Round of 16 and quarter final wins = 4 pts
Semifinal and Finals win = 5 pts

These are the teams with pick # in ( ):

Seth: odds to win 3.2:1
(1) Spain
(8) France
(9) Portugal
(16) Chile
(17) Paraguay
(24) Switzerland
(25) South Korea
(32) North Korea

While Spain may be the best team on paper they may have the toughest draw once the knockout phase begins where they will likely face Brazil or Portugal right off the bat followed by Italy. If Portugal and Spain face each other in the round of 16 Seth will imediately lose a title contender. France getting deep is critical for this team unless Spain or Portugal wins it all (which is a strong possibility). Paraguay is a potential sleeper given their soft pool. No real bad picks except maybe South Korea (but that one isn't a big deal).

Samenole: odds to win 2.8:1
(2) Brazil
(7) Germany
(10) Serbia
(15) Ivory Coast
(18) Mexico
(23) Slovakia
(26) Australia
(31) New Zealand

Brazil's analysis is similar to Spain's - great team shitty draw. While they should get out of pool play it isn't a guarantee. Earning first is critical so they won't likely have to face Spain in the round of 16. This was a well picked team in general though except for one: Ivory Coast. This team is solid and may even be a sleeper in most years. However, this year they are in a pool with Brazil and Portugal, and even if they survive that, they will likely be the 2nd place team in the pool and face Spain in the round of 16. To win this team needs the middle of its order to step up with 2-3 round of 16 apperances and a surprise quarterfinal appearance because the bottom of his order may get some much needed unexpected points that make the difference.

Chris: odds to win 2:1
(3) England
(6) Argentina
(11) USA
(14) Nigeria
(19) Uruguay
(22) Denmark
(27) Slovenia
(30) Honduras

Obviously I have to think my own team is the best. Drafting third, I obviously could not get one of the two big guns, but that may be a good thing because I was able to take teams that have much easier draws to the semifinals. The top 5 teams in FIFA's rankings are all in groups E-H meaning anyone in the top half of the draw does not have to face these teams until the semifinals. With that in mind, I think I need to get 3 teams into the quarters to have a chance because it is less likely I will have the overall champion like Seth or Samenole or Tom. I'm almost certain I will have two quarterfinalists - Argentina and one of my group C teams (England/USA/Slovenia-unlikely). Thus, Nigeria or Uruguay could be critical for me. If I do get a team into the finals, my chances skyrocket.

Tom: odds to win 4:1
(4) Italy
(5) Netherlands
(12) Greece
(13) Cameroon
(20) South Africa
(21) Ghana
(28) Algeria
(29) Japan

Tom's team has the most boom or bust potential. I'm just leaning towards bust. Italy and Netherlands have easy rides to the quarterfinals - unless they face each other in the round of 16. However, then they will face likely Brazil, Portugal, or Spain. A critcal win here by either team will enhance his chances mightily. I don't know much about Greece or Cameroon, but the bookmakers seem to really hate these two teams despite their fairly high FIFA ranking. Therefore, I don't like them either. Home teams usually play out of their minds. For South Africa that would be getting 1 win. That makes this a pick a stretch. The key to Tom's picking seemed to be to get as many African teams as possible. This may be a great strategy because they all should be pumped up to play on their home continent (also usually a bonus). However most of these teams are inferior to the Euro and South American teams. So, even with the added boost of adrenalin their results might not be good enough. As Tom said after his first couple picks, he wanted teams he can root for. He got them, but just like in a march madness contest, this strategy usually fails miserably...yet it is one I secretly hope works out.

Update after 7 events:

2010-06-08T23:56:00.000-07:00

I have now played seven events out here after busting 38th out of 1663 players in the $1500 6-max NLH for another smallish score. This follows my 18th place finish out of 250 in the 2-7 NL Single Draw event. I now have 3 cashes. I'm running pretty well, and I'm playing pretty well (although I am still making some critical mistakes that need to be cut out). I have roughly 1/2 of my outlay for the trip covered now. I JUST NEED TO FINISH OFF ONE OF THESE THINGS!

I get my first day off tomorrow since I arrived in Vegas, which simply means I will be working on my other job. Then it is time for the $1500 PLO on Thursday.

WSOP Update

2010-06-02T10:12:00.000-07:00

I got out here last Friday to some bad news which I will spare you the details. I played event #3 $1000 NLH on Saturday and busted a few levels in with really no chance. On Sunday, I decided at the last minute to play event #4 $1500 Omaha H/L (good decision). I ended up making it to the final day, and ultimately, I finished in 14th place for a decent payday. I grinded a short stack for the better part of day 2 and all of day 3. So I was satisfied with my finish. I have loftier goals obviously, and this just wet my appetite for bigger things.

On a side note: Matt Smith cashed decent in the $1000 NLH and is in day 2 of the $2500 2-7 Triple Draw event. Tom Fuller cashed in the $1500 NLH, and Toph Moore is onto his 2nd table (and in the money) of the $5000 NLH Shootout. Overall our group is off to a great start. I told Tom a few days ago despite the bad start to the summer campaign (and maybe because of it), I have a real good feeling big things are ahead.

Online Review

2010-05-17T07:33:00.000-07:00

Over the past 2 weeks, I have been immersed in online poker whenever I could be due to two online poker series running concurrently (SCOOP on Pokerstars and Mini FTOPS on Full Tilt). I'm not sure how I feel yet about my results. I did turn a little profit which is always nice. However, I really felt like I was on top of my game for the vast majority of time, and I thought I ran below expectations to only turn a small profit. This is obviously disappointing, but with the WSOP just around the corner, I am very encouraged with my game.

Here are some of the numbers:

Cashed in 5/23 SCOOP-Lows, 5/20 SCOOP-Mediums, 0/1 SCOOP High, 3/9 Mini FTOPS.
In total I cashed in 13 of the 53 events I played (just under 25%).

Most importantly though is some of the deep finishes:
2nd of 697 in Pot Limit 5 Card Draw
37th of 8504 in No Limit Shootout
43rd of 2004 in 8 Game Mixed
54th of 2041 in Pot Limit Omaha H/L
35th of 687 in Pot Limit Omaha H/L

This is what has me encouraged and disappointed at the same time. Five deep runs in 53 tournaments is outstanding. But I have to turn more of these deep runs into big scores otherwise it doesn't mean too much. The WSOP is the perfect venue for me to breakout. If I can keep playing this way, and catch just a bit of luck, I will come home a big winner this summer.

Stepping Stone

2010-05-05T10:08:00.000-07:00

Last night I went very deep in SCOOP #6 $109 Pot Limit 5 Card Draw ultimately finishing 2nd. While I hate to play the game, it did get interesting as we got deep and the metagame got more developed. The guy I faced HU was very solid, and I think I made some errors of not adjusting well to how he was playing resulting in me calling some hands I should have folded. Here is an article on pokerstars about the final table:

http://www.pokerstarsblog.com/scoop/2010/scoop-scooter-scoots-past-champ-to-claim-069564.html

There are some bad errors because obviously the guy writing it doesn't understand the game, but they make me sound great (so I encourage you to read it :) ).

During the tourney, I looked up my historical results in 5 Card Draw. I only play the game during the SCOOP and WCOOP, but I remembered doing fairly well when I did play. The results are kind of interesting. I have played 9 tournies in my life - 3 super sat, 2 WCOOPs, and 4 SCOOPs. I have cashed in all 3 supers, both WCOOPs, and 2 of the 4 SCOOPs (7 out of 9 ain't too shabby). However, this was my first significant cash. While I don't look forward to the next time I play this game, I nevertheless will be in the mix again I hope.

Important Issue

2010-04-29T15:44:00.000-07:00

Listen to this please, and if you agree with please spread it around however you deem fit.

Huh?

2010-04-08T14:14:00.000-07:00

This just in Chris "PiMaster" Viox took third again at a live event....

Hold on just a sec.... What? - I am mistaken. It looks like he won. Is this a misprint? No?!?!

It is now confirmed Pi actually won.

Yes I actually won a live event yesterday. It was a $350 NLH 6 max event at the WSOP Circuit Series in St. Louis. The win was worth $8998, so I can't complain. It only had 107 entries, and was the smallest prize pool I've ever played in live. It may also have been as unlikely of a win as I'll ever get given the circumstances that occurred. So here is the summary:

We started with 5k in chip at 25/50 blinds. The blinds were only 30 minutes long because this was basically the 2nd chance event of the day. Therefore some gambling was going to be necessary. With the first 45 minutes, I had bluffed off most of my stack to a guy that I found out would never fold any draw or top pair. I was down to 1500 at the 50/100 level. Over the next 2 1/2 levels I would get up to 12500 without getting allin and called or busting anyone. This was pretty ridiculous given my stack and the blinds. I made some good bluffs and my allins were never called.

I stayed around 12-18k for a couple hours before an crazy hand came up. I was on my 3rd table of the day. I had been playing fairly snug (due to my stack, the stacks at my table, and the blinds). The only "player" at my table raised my big blind for 2.3x from the cutoff. He had raised my big blind every time it folded to him. I had already decided to reraise with any big or bad hand. However, I looked down at T9. With this hand, I preferred the call with the intention of check-raising allin any decent flop (his cbet % was 100%). The flop came a beautiful T(63d). He bet 2700ish and I shoved for 14 or 15k. He tanked for a while, and it looked like he wanted to call. I had not done this once though, and had been not taking any chances. So he had to respect it. I was worried about a hand like JT. He finally called with Ad5 (wtf?!?!). Sure enough I get a great sweat when the 4 rolls off, but fortunately I dodge his 11 outer.

After that hand, I lost a big pot with AQd vs 66 leaving me with around 19k. Then a young kid got sat on my right with a big stack. He proceeded to lose a big pot to get about even with me. Then at the 400/800 level, he raised UTG to 2400 and I looked down at JJ. I reraised to 7500, and when it folded around to him he shipped the rest in (Sidenote - in this structure I can't rationalize calling here too often especially against a perceived agro player who just lost a bigt pot.). I obviously called and lost to his KK. This left me with 1525, or less than 2 big blinds.

At this point, things got insane for the next hour. The next hand after getting crippled, I look down at JJ UTG, and I triple up against the blinds to around 4800. The ensuing hand folds to the SB (perceived agro internet kid) and he raises to 2400 (red alert). I look at K5 and figure with only 6bbs why not? He flips over AA - game over. The board runs out A23 5 (at which point I said "damn now I can only chop"). As the river is dealt the dealer starts laughing before I even see the card, and I know it's the 4. Freeroll!!!!!!! I fold a round of hands not better than 8 high. Then I get a walk with only 4k. I steals from the cutoff with 97 and the next hand with KT. I fold through the blinds, and then shove from the button with A8. The big blind insta calls with 55. The board rolls out 367 2 8 (I annouce "bink" when it hits). Now I'm up to 12kish. I buy some blinds to get to around 15k. When my big blind comes around, it folds to the small blind again. He looks at his cards and sticks in a bunch of chips. It is about 8 or 9k. It is also obvious he didn't realize I had much more than that. I think his range is much bigger than would be normal for commitikng 12-13 big blinds. I look at A9, and figure this is an easy hand to go with. He looks a little pissed as he has to call off 6 or 7k more with Q2. I flop a 9, and it holds - 30kish. Four hands later, the same guy raises UTG to 3600. I look down at KK and reraise to 10500. He ships it in barely having me covered. His TT never catches up and amazingly about 45 minutes after being crippled to 1500, I have around 60k and may be the chip leader in the tourney with 20 left. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!

I get moved once again. I stay between 50-70k until the money hits. From 10 players on down, I pretty much owned the tourney. When we combined at 7 players, I had 200k+ and the other two guys on my table had 15k and 50k at the 3k/6k level. The guy I had just eliminated 8th had 10k. I simply ran over the table. Of the final 9 players (not including me), I eliminated 8 of them (I also doubled guys up probably about 6 times). The final table allins up until heads up were J9 vs KJ (lost), A8 vs QJ (won) A9 vs J7s (lost), AJ vs A3 (lost), one I forgot where I busted a shortie in 6th, AA vs A6 (won), 77 vs Q8 (won), KQ vs Ax (won).

When I got heads up, I had about a 2 to 1 chip lead. I whittled him down a little, then lost T5s vs A3. He eventually took a small chip lead before the pot that basically decided it came up. He limped the button and I checked my 65. The flop came 7(89h). I led into him, and he insta shoved. After my call, he showed KT. At this point, Adam Friedman yells something like "you've got him dead." It was eerily reminiscent of his comment at the WSOP Razz final table when he shouted "you got him almost drawing dead." At which point the guy hit perfect perfect to bust me. However, this time my straight held and Adam's life was preserved. He later stated he thought the guy had K9. Whatever! I was destined to win when I avoided that amazing premature celebration. The guy was left with under 2 big bets. He doubled up the first hand when I shoved blind, but I finished off a couple hands later with T7 vs KJ.

Health Care "Reform" (sigh)

2010-03-22T08:49:00.000-07:00

With the near certainty of this health care bill being signed into law, our politicians continue to say one thing and do another. Do we need health care reform? - without a doubt, but this plan does nothing to reform the major problems.

The main talking point the proponents have used is that it helps reduce the deficit by some fairly large number over the next ten years (BTW take note that they always say the next 10 years, never longer), and it does do this. But do you know why? Because for the first 4 years they payout nothing. All they do is collect in new taxes to "fund" the program. Then after the first 4 years they finally start to enact the program. Now I ask you, if you were given a business where you had absolutely no expenses (aka claims) for 4 years but you had tons of revenue (aka taxes), could you make a profit (aka have a surplus)? Of course. However, if you look at any numbers over the following ten years, the true cost of this program adds tremendously to our already ever bludgeoning debt.

So what are some of the major problems of our current health care system that have led to skyrocketing costs and premiums for Americans?

1) Medicare/medicaid: Currently the government forces doctors/hospitals to accept below market rates for medicare patients because the program is essentially broke. The government cannot afford to pay market rate because the fund is empty. So what do these entities then do? Obviously they pass the costs on to everyone else. As baby boomers get older and more people enter the poverty zone, medicare/medicaid has grown tremendously. This means everyone else has had to pick up a larger and larger portion of the health care costs that medicare/medicaid do not pay for. This leads to higher and higher premiums. Why does the government get to negotiate (force) a better price for itself than the average health plan can get for its clients. Does this health care bill address this? NO

2) Tort Reform: Americans sue over everything. EVERYTHING. We are the leading country in lawsuits by an unimaginable percentage, and the lawsuits get larger and more ridiculous every year. It is called practicing medicine for a reason. Mistakes happen, side effects happen. There is no other country I'd trust my life to doctors than America, but sometimes shit happens. Now if a doctor amputates the wrong arm, I can understand suing him, but if someone you loves dies in an operation where there is an 80% chance of survival, then pray that he/she has gone to a better place. Don't blame the doctor/hospital. What this has led to are doctors prescribing all sorts of tests to cover there asses when a patient comes in for a fairly routine issue. Also E&O (errors and omission- aka lawsuit protection) insurance has skyrocketed. Both of these items have led to ever increasing insurance costs also. Does this health care bill address this? NO

3) Drug costs: Right now drug companies charge Americans far more for drugs here than in any other country. Why is this the case? Oh yeah, because the lobbyists for drug companies have gotten our politicians to set extremely tough standards for generic drugs. Drug patents last for a long time and often get extended for a variety of reasons. Go to Canada, Europe, Asis and you can get the same drugs there for pennies on the dollar than it costs Americans here (even though a vast majority of the drugs get created here). Drug companies can't charge ridiculous prices overseas because generics would crush them, so they sell them at tiny margins there, and jack them up here. Essentially Americans are fitting the bill for the rest of the world. So why don't Americans just buy the drugs overseas and ship them here in bulk to keep down costs? Oh yeah (another law passed by our politicians looking out for us) it is illegal and we'd get fined or face jail time. Does this health care bill address this? NO

So do I want health care reform? Desparately, but not this health care reform. It just does not address the issues that are causing the problems. Address the above issues, and then we can talk. Until then, costs will keep rising. This bill is essentially just another tax that gives our government some extra revenue to fund their spending habits under the guise of health care reform.

Best Day 1 Ever?

2010-03-18T21:49:00.000-07:00

I'm not sure if this was the best day 1 of the NCAA tournament ever, but it definitely has to rank right up there.

First group of games - incredible:

Old Dominion won a squeaker over Notre Dame by 1. This game was back and forth most of the way, and Notre Dame had a 3 pointer go in and out as time basically ran out.

BYU (this year's Davidson?) then won a double overtime thriller over Florida as the world was introduced to BYU point guard Jimmer Fredette and his 37 points. This kid has it all including an uncanny ability to get to the rim. I will be rooting for these guys for as long as they can go no matter who they face.

Lastly, Villanova stole a victory from a game Robert Morris team in overtime. Robert Morris led almost the entire regulation before 'Nova sent the game into overtime. This victory saved a little face for the Big East in what was easily the most embarrsing day in a long time for the conference. Yet Villanova had no right to win it. They were outhustled big time, but the disappointing end didn't take too much away from this exciting game.

The second group of games were overall not as great, but had the most exciting buzzer beater of the day.

Kansas St handled their business efficiently, and Butler, St. Mary's, and Baylor all had close halftime games before late runs gave them victories. However...........how about Murray St?!?! Danero Thomas hit a 15 footer at the buzzer to send the 13 seed into the second round after Vanderbilt had done the same at the other end with 13 seconds left.

Third group - awesome:

Kentucky's massive blow out was the only dud, unless you count 14th seeded Ohio's pounding of Georgetown????? What happened here? The mighty Hoyas must have thought this was the preseason, and ironically their next game will be. There is nothing better than watching a highly rated team from the "#1 conference" just get it handed to them by a 9th place finisher from a mid major.

Northern Iowa won another great game on a 3 pointer by Ali Farokhmanesh (don't ask me to pronounce that one) from well beyond the arc with 5 seconds remaining to break a tie ballgame. Northern Iowa came into the game with the number 1 defense in the land, and their gritty effortshowed why. I love watching lesser athletic teams play with great fundamentals to win. This is UNI in a nutshell. This is another team I will definitely be watching in the next round to see how they can handle the Jayhawks.

Finally, Marquette ended a putrid day for the Big East by blowing a 15 point 2nd half lead over Washington to lose by 2 in another close exciting game. Washington scored on last second shot breaking a tie ballgame and leaving Marquette standing on the wall on a shot by Pondexter.

So the final set of games surely would be a letdown, right? Uh, not exactly.

Sure KU pounded Lehigh, but only after Lehigh hung tough for just over a half. However, the other three games were a continuation of the rest of the day.

Tennessee hung on against San Diego St. SD St. had a chance to tie it at the buzzer with a three, but unfortunately it didn't go down for basketball fans.

Then in a game that rivaled the Murray St. game, Wake Forest beat Texas by 1 in overtime on a shot with 2 seconds left. This after Texas missed multiple free throws that could have iced the game including 2 misses with 10 seconds left.

In the last game of the night, 14th seeded Montana led at half before falling behind by 14 points in the second half against New Mexico. Then they stormed back to get within 1 before finally succumbing by 5.

So in summary:

3 overtime games which eclipsed the total for the entire tourney last year
4 games decided by shots in the last 5 seconds
5 double digit seeds winning (the most on day 1 since 1991)
7 games decided by 3 pts or less

Day 2 anyone?

Go Tom GO!

2010-02-24T06:55:00.000-08:00

Watch Tom Fuller try to take down his first live event (and not too shabby of one at that) at 4PM cst.

http://www.pokerstars.tv/channels/TPI/live.html

1st prize is over 800k!

Take no prisoners Tom! It's your time!

Quick Update

2010-02-22T07:22:00.000-08:00

Jason Dewitt (5th) & Tom Fuller (9th) both crushing the NAPT Venetian Deep Stack heading to day 3 (148 runners left). Matt Smith also in the mix with an under avg stack.

I had a stressful semi successful week in poker (that I felt could have been a huge week). I feel things are turning in the right direction, especially my PLO/PLO8 cash game.

USA/Canada hockey game was phenomenal. Up and down, back and forth, unbelievable effort given.

USA Curling needs some new blood, who's in?

Things are HOPping

2010-02-15T13:39:00.000-08:00

In the past couple weeks, a couple friends of mine have had some nice successes. Paul Wasicka won the Tunica WSOP Circuit Main Event. He beat out 90+ entrants in the $5K event to take down his 2nd live victory (the other being the NBC Heads Up Championship in 2007 I believe). Also Tom Fuller had two deep Heads Up No Limit runs (one live and one online). He made a 4 way deal at the Borgata $2K Heads Up (essentially taking 2nd/3rd place money), and yesterday he took 3rd/4th in the FTOPS $500 Heads Up. Congrat to both of you - very well deserved.

Bring On the Curling!

2010-02-12T13:17:00.000-08:00

Most people agree that the Summer Olympics are far superior to the Winter Olympics. However, with the Winter Olympics starting tonight, two of my favorite sports to watch are highlighted: hockey and curling. Yes I said curling! Shuffleboard on ice. I love the strategy and the subtleties. It has to be one of the harder "sports" to control your nerves to do a precise speed and direction type motion. I will watch other events as I love most sports played on the highest platform, but I will try to catch as much of the two aforementioned ones as possible.

Pstars WBCOOP

2010-01-19T13:10:00.001-08:00

I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker! The WBCOOP is a free online Poker tournament open to all Bloggers, so register on WBCOOP to play.
Registration code: 722151

Good Ole UB

2010-01-16T10:24:00.000-08:00

So I got an email from UB on January 14th, and in it, it had a link advertising discounted entries into the upcoming UB series if you registered in December through their store. Notice what day I received it. Anyway I wrote them this back:

Nice to get this email in January after the December discounts.

and this is their cleverly constructed reply:

Dear Christopher,

Thank you for contacting us.

Your kind words and loyalty to the Ultimatebet family are very much appreciated.

We are happy to hear that you are pleased with the quality of service received, games and promotions. Rest assured that your feedback is always welcome, since we are aware that it is our customer's critiques and suggestions what helps us improve every day.

Please do not hesitate to contact us again if you require any type of assistance in the future. It is our main concern to provide you with the best poker experience and the most helpful customer support available!

Best regards,

Vern

Customer Support Department

Be berry berry careful....

2010-01-05T12:28:00.000-08:00

There are some signs in the markets that perilous times may be in the near (next quarter) future. None of them are blatantly apparent (mainly because hype TV usually refrains from talking in depth about potential danger signs. However, investor sentiment is at very high levels (usually very bearish signal). Interest rates keep sneaking higher, and with government sales of treasuries expected to be even higher this year than last year's ridiculous numbers, this could be very dangerous. If rates keep increasing, beware, this will instantly bring a halt to the "recovery." Recently, several large closed end high yield bond funds have had major selloffs. The last two times this happened - fall 2007 and winter 2008-2009. Also, the long awaited (but hardly ever mentioned on TV) flow of ARMs and Alt-A mortgages that were the rage at the end of the housing boom to entice financially less stable players into houses they likely shouldn''t have bought, will start resetting their interest rates early this year. The peak of these resets probably won't occur until 2011 though. However, people that were previously making very minimal payments on their houses will be in for a rude awakening very shortly. Given a high percentage of these players are either out of a job, on a reduced work schedule or shouldn't have bought the thing in the first place, another (potentially crippling) downswing in the real estate markets is very possible. Throw in increasing interest rates, an already weak economy, a government stretched to and maybe beyond its capacity in debt, and you have a recipe for disaster.

Do not be fooled by the "great" numbers that have been flooding the markets. This has been completely fueled by the government's ridiculous spending habits. The liquidity has been propping our economy up now for some time. However, how can we keep growing without free money (keep in mind nothing is really free)? Yet how can we continue to keep adding on more debt? Herein lies the problem. Out of the 2 TRILLION dollars of debt the government issued last year, only 1/10 of it (200 billion) was purchased by someone other than our own government or agencies of it. So you see there is hardly any desire to purchase our debt by investors or foriegn entities, and in essence we created 1.8 TRILLION dollars out of thin air last year.

If our economy is doing so well, why is the fed keeping interest rates artificially so low? They know raising rates would be deadly because our economy is still in extremely bad shape. They can only keep rates artificially low for some time. Eventually the market will say no more. At that point the only way that rates will be able to stay low is if the fed essentially begins to buy up more and more and more of the outstanding treasury market, ie create more money out of thin air. At this point, the dollar would begin to plummet.

The three scenarios I see at this point are: 1) The market forces our government to it's senses in the form of a bond dislocation (essentially rates spike up). The market would likely crash. As long as the government doesn't try to solve this with some extremely massive spending bill, the dollar would likely rally hard. 2) Our government continues the status quo. The dollar continues to get weaker over time (with a possibilty of rapid decline). The stock market continues to rise, but day-to-day living will become much more expensive over time. This could last for a few years, but eventually it can't go on, and scenario one comes into play anyway. 3) The government gets spending under control, the fed walks the tight rope perfectly, housing rebounds, GDP growth gets to about the 5-6% and unemployment gets down to 6% for the next 10 years (these are the assumptions the White House used for what is needed to pay off our national debt and budget outlays), and we come out of this all happy. The problem with this scenario - government and fiscally responsible together is a joke, the fed rarely ever is on top of things until it is too late, bubbles (housing) rarely rebound in under a decade (the Nasdaq is still 50% below its 2000 highs), and GDP growth of 5-6% would be about 3% above historical norms. Throw in that it would have to occur for 10 years and we have a very unlikely scenario.

I know I have been rambling, but this is very complex. I've tried to simplify it. I could probably write for another hour or more on this. Life is good right now on Wall Street, but in Main Street America things haven't changed much.

The Good Old Days

2009-12-15T13:34:00.000-08:00

So I decided to watch some good St. Louis football today. Of course, that meant going back a while. I went to youtube and searched for some 1999 video. I wanted to watch a game (instead of just highlights) just to get a feel of how good they were again. I came upon the 4th game of the season against the 49ers. The Rams had lost 17 straight to them, but we came in 3-0 and they were 3-1. Talk about two loaded offenses. The Rams were led by 4 probable Hall of Famers at the skill positions: Kurt Warner, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, and Marshall Faulk. The 49ers countered with 3 of their own: Terrell Owens, Jerry Rice, and Steve Young (although Young is out in this game). It is still amazing to watch the continual precision passing Warner exhibited and the pure speed at every offensive position including the return game. I still don't remember a team that went from so bad for so long (3-13 the year before plus MANY losing seasons in a row) to so good in one year. The time from the 2-3 minute mark in the 4th part of the game with Bruce showed the inexplicable change that occurred seemingly overnight. Man was that a fun watch for me (even though it will make watching the current Rams even more painful)!

There was one painful thing to see: Near the end of the game they showed some stuff on "today" vs what was happening the last time the Rams beat the Niners in 1990. The Dow was all the way up to 10,649. Unfortunately as I write this over 10 years later it sits at virtually the same place 10,452. I guess some things never change.............

Number 11

2009-11-27T08:55:00.000-08:00

Today is my 11th wedding anniversary with my wonderful wife Julie. Each year gets better for us, and I love her more now than the day we married. This is a hard phenomenom to explain to someone who hasn't experienced it, but it is something to look forward to for a newly married couple. Each year you gain a better understanding and a deeper love for your spouse.

By the way belated Happy Thanksgiving to all! I hope everyone was able to get together with friends and family to celebrate everything that is good in your life.

Day 1 Main Event

2009-10-24T02:21:00.001-07:00

It's very late (or early), but I made it through to day 2 w/ 145k. The avg is around 80k with 90 or so left. Top 27 make the money.

Horseshoe Hammond Update

2009-10-21T01:20:00.000-07:00

I got up here on Monday to play the 2k PLO, but there weren't enough people in it for me to play. So I dabbled in some cash games. Today, I played the $500 NLH 6-max, but I busted pretty early in it making a big call down against a nutty guy. I then entered the $200 PLO w/ $100 RBs. Talk about a crazy rb period!!! Some drunk guy was in for at least 20 rebuys. Anyways, I come back tomorrow (today) with 122k in chips with avg around 100k and 12 people left. 14 people cashed, and 1st prize is 18k and change plus a main event seat.

The Comeback

2009-10-17T03:14:00.000-07:00

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch is reporting that sure-fire Hall of Fame Flower Girl Ellie Viox is coming out of retirement today to participate in her Godmother Julie Viox's wedding. There had been speculation of this for some time. In the end, it was an offer she couldn't refuse. Both sides of the wedding party are led by all-Pro caliber participants. Most importantly though, it was a chance to be able to lead the best young ring bearer (Joey Viox) to come along in years. Many predict he has the chance to participate in a record number of weddings given his wonderful smile and exuberant demeanor.

As a side note, Maureen Dempsey (bride of Ellie's most memorable flower girl wedding and cousin of the current bride) is rumored to be furious with Ellie's decision. To make it worse, Maureen is a current bridesmaid in this wedding where she will half to just sit back and watch as her former flower girl lights up the church. While half of the relatives are just happy to see Ellie still in the game, the other half can barely stand to watch. Ellie is quoted as saying "Having (Maureen) in the wedding had nothing to do with my decision. Some of my best smiles were in Maureen's wedding and I will always be her flower girl. However, I still enjoy the feeling you can only get at a wedding. This does nothing to diminish what I did in her wedding." At age 7, many experts feel she may be too old, but she said, "If I didn't feel I could still perform, I wouldn't be back."

Another Reason Pokerstars is Considered The Best Online Site

2009-10-12T12:49:00.000-07:00

I just received this email from Stars (I deleted a little of the letter that was irrelevant.):

Dear WCOOP Champion,

Congratulations on your success in the 2009 World Championship of Online Poker! Making your way through the tough field found in any WCOOP event to earn the bracelet is a major achievement few will ever experience.

I'm contacting you today to provide details on the WCOOP Champion's Bracelet presentation, which we will be conducting at the Atlantis Resort on Paradise Island in the Bahamas, during the PokerStars Caribbean Adventure.

Each WCOOP Champion will receive the following:
* $1,000 credited to your account to help with travel and other expenses
* 4 nights stay at the Atlantis Resort for you and a guest
* invitation to Champions' Reception (location to be determined) on January 9th

Please note that just one trip will be awarded to each WCOOP Champion, regardless of the number of bracelets won or Player of the Series standing.

You should arrive in the Bahamas on January 8th and fly out on January 12th, as the hotel nights reserved for you will be the nights of the 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th. If you wish to play in the Main Event of the 2010 PokerStars Caribbean Adventure, you can of course try your luck in the satellites or buy a package directly, and if you do so we will adjust your credit accordingly.

Thanks again for participating in the 2009 World Championship of Online Poker. I hope that you're looking forward to receiving your bracelet at least as much as we're looking forward to presenting it to you!

See you in the Bahamas!

All the best,

Bryan Slick
Tournaments Team Leader
PokerStars Poker Room Management

g g g g g g g g g GOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2009-10-06T08:00:00.000-07:00

Gold just hit all-time highs today. After breaking through the previous resistence in the low $1020's/oz, it met further small resistence at the previous all-time high of $1033/oz (hit in early 2007). As I write this, it is sitting at $1040/oz (up 2% on the day). Furthermore, the gold/silver mining stocks are up an incredible 7.5% on the day so far. Breaking through all-time highs is a pretty significant event, and many people thought that if gold could do it, $1300 isn't out of the question in a fairly short time (a few months to a yr).

The dollar keeps getting weaker. There are more and more rumblings around the world of the dollar losing it's reserve standard. Unless the government changes it's ways soon, the dollar will keep getting weaker, assets will keep getting more expensive, and inflation will ruin many people's standard of living. In the past year, the dollar has lost 20%! Yet the government says there has been no inflation?!?!?! Don't believe them. Food costs are up, gas prices are up, etc. Real inflation is running at around 6% or so according to most real estimates. Protect yourself.

Poker Television Debut (Sort Of)

2009-09-22T07:05:00.000-07:00

Tonight, I should be on ESPN's coverage of the WSOP Main Event. This will be my first television coverage ever (if you don't count me being in the background of Paul Wasicka's deep runs :) doing my best rail bird). I'm excited yet a little worried about the hand(s) they might show. Nonetheless it will be cool to see.

WCOOP Champ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2009-09-19T01:13:00.000-07:00

I just took down the WCOOP NLO8 $215 tourney on pokerstars for 42K+. WOWOWOWOW did I need this!!!!!! Interestingly, I got HU with benba (Ben Lamb) for the bracelet. Congrats to him on his 2nd place finish (30K+). I pretty much dominated the whole final table (which basically meant I ran well because the structure weas fast). I don't know what else to say, but thank GOD!

A couple market updates....

2009-09-16T08:25:00.000-07:00

The first is on my gold/silver recommendations done last year in October and November. Now one would think with the market's huge rally that maybe it would have been better to be in "regular" stocks.

Here is the link to the original article:

http://asliceofpi-cviox.blogspot.com/2009/02/gold-update_18.html

and here is the updated returns using the 11/6/8 date (which is more favorable for the S&P 500):

S&P 500 16.18%
Gold 37.99%
Silver 72.90%
GDX 119.24% (mining stock etf)
AUY 144.33%
SLW 255.50%

So if you put an equal amount into each of my five recommended holdings your return would have averaged merely 126%. Incidently, gold is just under alltime highs as I write this. The S&P 500 is still nearly 50% under it's alltime highs. The fundamentals for gold and silver remain strong while the fundamentals for the market as a whole are tenuous at best.

This leads to the second update:

http://asliceofpi-cviox.blogspot.com/2008/11/precipice.html

In this one I preditcted a pattern for the Dow Jones. So far the pattern has been almost perfect. I will say my timing was off by a couple months (I thought the bottom would be in December not March, and I thought the rally would be sharper and end in about 4 months). The Dow is just below my predicted top of between 10000 and 10500. I still hope I am wrong about all of this. However, I really believe this drop will happen at some point unless the fed keeps printing money like it's going out of style.

Right now the biggest threat for a massive blowup "lies" in the banks. As of now most banks have tremendous amounts of bad debt sitting on their balance sheets at false levels. The fed and the accounting board are allowing the banks to put these "assets" on their books at full value. Who out there really believes all these Alt A laons, sub prime loans, ARMs, etc will be fully recovered. In fact, recently a major bank that was forced to be taken over had their assets wrote off at 37% (a mere 63% below where our government was allowing them to show)!!!!! The reason our government is doing this: if the banks are forced to mark these assets to market (like has always been the case), most would be bankrupt. This was why the gov bailed them out, and this is why we are likely screwed. Despite the huge bailout, only a small part of the huge canyon was filled.

A new wave of mortgage blowups are expected to hit in 2010 and 2011 on the same scale that has happen the past 2 years due to ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages) resetting. ARMs were the huge fad towards the end of the housing boom as a way to get people that had no business getting homes, or second homes, or investment homes into the market. Banks quoted teaser rates as low as 1% for 5 yrs. They also signed these people up with no financial records because they got paid for each loan finished. Volume equaled huge profits. Screw the long-term. Well the long-term is almost here, and all these people that signed up are in deep shit. Already the default rates on these loans are high and the intereset rate reset hasn't even occurred on most. The estimated default rate on these loans are over 50%!!!! I haven't even gotten into commercial loans which typically trail consumer mortgages. These size of this market isn't as large as consumer but it is expected to be extremelky weak also.

Can this be fixed? It's a catch 22. If the government steps aside as they should in a true capitalistic economy, the financial sector (and as a result the entire economy) will be %^#^**. However, we will recover fairly quickly as the strong players will come out stronger, and the weak will be gone. If the government keeps trying to prop up every weak player, then our country's debt will continue to skyrocket, and the dollar will continue to get weaker.... and our economy will still be %^*%&$ (just in a different fashion with huge inflation and impossible debt loads). The strong players will get punished because the incentive to do things the right way will be gone. The idiot's that took on too much risk or flat out cheated will be bailed out at the expense of those that went about things the right way. This would sacrifice our country's future for the present. Currently, our government is choosing the latter option. It's pretty sad......

I'm not sure when or what may be the cause that starts the downturn, but I truly believe it will happen (pending the printing press). It could be sudden or just a rolling over of the market that slowly picks up steam. Please tread carefully everyone, and do not get caught up in the propaganda getting spewed out of Washington or Wall St.

Puke

2009-09-15T15:36:00.000-07:00

Example of why I may be gray within a week or two:

This is my bustout hand from the $300 PLO w/ RB's and is extremely gross. I knew Mercier would make a move with anything here if I just made a weak looking call. However, when you can hit your 10%'s I guess I would make crazy moves too.

PokerStars Game #32886089940: Tournament #200909031, $300+$20 USD Omaha Pot Limit - Level IX (80/160) - 2009/09/15 18:07:04 ET

Table '200909031 32' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: JasonMercier (31620 in chips)
Seat 2: veg777 (3945 in chips)
Seat 3: Skint Paddy (32167 in chips)
Seat 4: grindnitout (3944 in chips)
Seat 5: PiMaster (15226 in chips)
Seat 6: MUSTAFABET (23548 in chips)
Skint Paddy: posts small blind 80
grindnitout: posts big blind 160
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PiMaster [Jh 2c 2h Jd]
PiMaster: calls 160
MUSTAFABET: folds
JasonMercier: calls 160
veg777: folds
Skint Paddy: calls 80
grindnitout: raises 640 to 800
PiMaster: calls 640
JasonMercier: calls 640
Skint Paddy: folds
*** FLOP *** [2s 8d Tc]
grindnitout: bets 2560
PiMaster: calls 2560
JasonMercier: raises 10240 to 12800
grindnitout: calls 584 and is all-in
PiMaster: raises 1626 to 14426 and is all-in
JasonMercier: calls 1626
*** TURN *** [2s 8d Tc] [Jc]
*** RIVER *** [2s 8d Tc Jc] [9c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PiMaster: shows [Jh 2c 2h Jd] (three of a kind, Jacks)
JasonMercier: shows [7c Td Ks Qc] (a flush, Queen high)
JasonMercier collected 22564 from side pot
grindnitout: shows [3s Ah 2d Ad] (a pair of Aces)
JasonMercier collected 11992 from main pot
cognex is connected

For those who care....

2009-09-14T20:07:00.000-07:00

I have gone the whole last week without a cash in the WCOOP. I am now 2 -18 and have skipped numerous events due to my frustration. The frustration has come about because I have now bubbled 5 events (2 were basically on the exact bubble while 3 others were very close). In addition, I have messed up a couple tournaments by botching a critical hand. It gets really old playing for six hours straight only to finish just outside the money. Here's hoping something changes in the next week because there are some biggies coming up. Tomorrow's Stud H/L event may be the launching point. I've always felt Stud H/L is my strongest online tourney game.

How to Snow in 2 to 7.....

2009-09-10T16:30:00.002-07:00

The hand history isn't pasting here for some reason so I'll write it out.

I am dealt 732xx and raise from the cutoff. The big blind calls. We both draw 2, and I end up w/ 77332. He checks calls my bet. At this point he draws 2 so I decide to stay pat. He check calls another bet from me and draws 1. Once again he checks and I bet. Fold fold fold fold. Nope he calls, and ...... the pot gets pushed .... to me! ?????

He immediately writes oops, and says he thought there was a draw left. Still I had 2 pair!!!!!! He had 87654 lol. So now I get caught snowing, and I won the hand. Best case scenario because I had just sat down at the table and I rarely ever do that. Now guys will be calling me down with all sorts of stuff.

How to Snow in 2 to 7.....

2009-09-10T16:30:00.001-07:00

A Slice of Pi

WCOOP Update

2009-09-07T06:06:00.000-07:00

Through the first weekend I have played 8 of the 11 tournaments, and cashed in 2: $215 PL 5-Card Draw and $215 NL Holdem. Neither cash was huge and I am about even for the series. I was especially proud of the NL tourney. It was one of my finer performances. I had a stack under 25 bbs for 2 to 3 hours mid way through the tournament highlighted by a hand where I raised preflop and then pulled off a double barrel bluf on the river. The kicker: I started the hand with 12bbs and had 97h in 2nd pos on a KJT 5 3 board. I finished 124th out of more than 11,000 players.

WCOOP Begins Today

2009-09-03T06:08:00.000-07:00

My 2nd favorite tournament series of the year begins today (behind only the WSOP). The phenomenal structures and wide range of events are the best seen anywhere online. I am hoping to add a WCOOP bracelet to the SCOOP title (and watch) I won this past spring. I currently rank 14th all-time in cashes in the WCOOP, but I have yet to really make a good score. I am hoping this changes this year. I expect to play somewhere from 35-40 of the 45 events.

WSOP Coverage

2009-08-29T10:23:00.000-07:00

This coming Tuesday there is a decent chance I will appear on the coverage during any hand involving Eric Seidel. I am directly across the table from him sitting next to Kevin Stammen. However, if I do not appear in the coverage I am surely likely to on the Day 4 (or bubble day) coverage at the secondary feature table with Peter Eastgate, Joe Hachem, and Burt Boutin. This will be in 2-4 weeks from now.

Nationals Update

2009-08-21T06:45:00.000-07:00

We got smoked in the final 3 games yesterday (the previous day got rained out). Our team was outmatched in pretty much every conceivable way. Honestly, it wasn't too much fun getting your ass kicked every game, but I did get to see fastpitch played at the highest levels.

On a side note this may have been may last truly competitive game. My desire has been dwindling this past year as I have been more focused on other aspects of my life. This may change when next spring comes around, but I don't know. I probably will play at some point in the future, but more than likely, it would be more just for fun or if someone needed me for a weekend. The only thing that kept me around this long is the guys on my team. As most of you know, my summers are crazy hectic, and I usually miss half of the season anyways. However, the comraderie of these guys has kept me around. That's what I would miss the most.

Nationals

2009-08-18T10:14:00.000-07:00

It will be hard to match last year's NAFA national tourney where we won the whole damn thing. First of all, we haven't been playing nearly as well as we did last year. More importantly, this is a much higher quality tourney. The comparison is like the difference between A and AAA baseball I would think.

40 teams qualified for the ISC II tourney. They have the top 30 of these teams ranked (we are not in that group). The format is 8 5-team round robin pools. The top 3 teams from each pool advance to a 24 team single elimination bracket with all the 1 seeds getting byes. Our bracket has the 8th, 9th, 15th, and 25th ranked teams.

Our first game was against the 8th seed and we lost 6-1. Most likely we will need to win 2 of the last 3 games to advance. I would consider this a successful tourney if we can. I will keep you updated. Our next game is tomorrow at 12:30.

Soooooo Close!

2009-08-16T21:20:00.000-07:00

I finished 8th in the Sunday Warmup on Stars today. This seems to be my money tournament this year (if you look back a couple posts ytou can see why). I had a great shot at some really big money for the first time online in a looooonnnngggg time, but it was not meant to be this time. I am out of the hole on the year; so that's good.

I really like where my game is right now. I seem to be making a lot of good reads that are minimizing my losing hands, maximizing my monsters, and picking up pots that shouldn't be mine. Yet, I know I am making a couple bad plays here and there that I need to cleanup.

Oh and Wolf - you still owe me some :)

FT (R U KIDDING ME?)

2009-08-07T21:06:00.000-07:00

1 for my last 47 FTOPS.

I really think Fu(ck)ll Tilt has it out for me. I've started tracking my allins there in the NLH tourneys (just for info purposes to see if I'm crazy). My results there over time are ridiculously bad.

Tournies
ROI (courtesy of official poker rankings)

2009 FT -59% Stars 70%
2008 FT -12% Stars 8%
2007 FT 48% Stars 105%
Overall FT -7% Stars 32%
My stats (which go back 1 yr further) FT 5% Stars 32%
other sites Party 4% Live 67% UB 83% Cake 68%

Cash Games

2009 FT -6k Stars -10k (stars double the hrs & higher limits)
2008 FT -56k Stars +75k (stars about 25% more)
2007 FT -4k Stars +24k (stars more than doublte the time)
Overall (includes some pre 2007) FT -58K Stars +94K
other sites UB +44K Party +81k (this one's dubious pre-uigea) Bodog -10k Cake +9k

The disparity among Tilt and pretty much every other site is crazy. The fact that cash games and tournies pretty much look the same is odd too. I first started to notice this during my short -term short stacking phase. I played Tilt and Stars during it, and I used Poker Tracker which you could load into some software to measure your allin luck (to see how you ran during allins, this was all that mattered really for a short stacker). On Tilt I ran so far below expectations that I was a slight loser. On Stars, I ran slightly above expectations, but this meant I absolutely crushed the games.

I know the disparity on Tilt could be mathematically explained through standard deviations from the mean. At the same time, eventually reversion to the mean is expected if your sample size gets large enough. As time continues to go by, I am really beginning to wonder............................

Sunday Blues

2009-07-27T09:08:00.000-07:00

In the Sunday majors (all $200+ buyin tournies plus some FTOPS and SCOOPs) this year:

3/62 (all 3 cashes in the Sunday Warmup on Pokerstars)
-$15,323

Yes I am 0 for the Stars Sunday Million, the FT Sunday Brawl, the FT 750k, and the UB 200K plus some HORSE, Razz and FTOPS/SCOOPs.

That's the bad news.

The good news: my big score of the year was in a $55 NLH on Stars back in January (which happened to be on a Sunday). As a result, my overall net on Sundays is actually positive. It just doesn't feel like it.

Someone's 30!

2009-07-26T10:59:00.000-07:00

377th

2009-07-12T16:47:00.000-07:00

Out early today. I played only two hands. My bustout occurred with JJ vs AK aipf. Amazingly, it was only my 3rd allin pot of the whole tourney, and my first with me at risk. Not so amazingly, I lost the flip. The only day I wish I could play over again was day 4. I messed up two or three hands that day that put me behind the 8 ball coming into today.

To say this series was a disappointment would be a large understatement. I felt I played very well for the most part (although I did botch some hands as would be expected with the amount of poker I played). However, the allins just hammered me. I ran so far below expectation that it was hard to ever get a stack unless my timing on bluffs was phenomenal. This is basically how I went so far in the Main Event - a couple big hands, and tons of small to medium pots taken down with cbets and creative bluffs.

I basically broke even on the trip in poker including online action. Considering I was down almost 30k at one point, that could be considered a small victory. I fly home tomorrow, and I can't wait to see my family. Also, a good shave might do me wonders (the facial hair is out of control).

Good Luck to Mr. Joel Patchell! He is currently sporting a large stack, and I would love to see him make some major waves in this tourney.

Day 4

2009-07-11T22:45:00.000-07:00

I played fairly well in this shortened version of a day. I did botch one hand but got lucky, and I made a big, but incorrect fold on another hand when I went with my read. The latter hand, in particular, was extremely strange and sickening. By tomorrow, it won't matter though. I have 201k with the average somewhere in the mid 400s I think. 407 players remain, so I will see what I can do tomorrow with my 25 big blind stack. I have plenty of time (and patience), and hopefully I can catch a few breaks and get a hold of some chips.

On a side note I played at my 1st feature table (it was the secondary feature table). I was seated with Joe Hachem, Peter Eastgate, Surindar Sunar, and Burt Boutin. So look for me when they do Day 4 coverage on ESPN. However, I fear the only hand they may show of me is the one I incorrectly folded :( So if that happens I won't look too good (weeeeeeee!).

WSOP Contest

Doyle - Phil Ivey, Dan Harrington
Nick/Matt - Chris Viox, Joe Sebok
Joel - Phil Hellmuth (3 pts), Chris Ferguson (2 pts - somehow missed him previously) Elky
Tom - JC Tran
Chris - Joe Hachem

Joe - Justin Bonomo (3pts)

Matt S - none
Jason - none

Day 4 Anyone?

2009-07-11T02:11:00.000-07:00

I am on to day 4 of the WSOP Main Event (somehow). All day it was like pulling teeth until finally with 30 minutes left in the day I finally won a big hand with AA vs QQ. It was easily my toughest day yet, despite the fact the table wasn't all that difficult. I wasn't getting any hands to speak of, and these guys were not the easiest to win a pot off of without actually having something.

Nonetheless, I move on with 233,500. Average is slightly above this. Also Paul (293k) and Joel (313K) are still kicking. We should hit the money sometime early in the day (maybe 3 hrs in or so).

Doyle - Phil Ivey 371k Dan Harrington 181k
Jason - Isaac Baron 208k
Nick/Matt - Chris Viox 234k, Joe Sebok 298k
Joe - Justin Bonomo 518k
Joel - Phil Hellmuth 485k, Elky 1.4mil
Tom - JC Tran 119k
Chris - Joe Hachem 240k
Matt S - done

WSOP Contest Update

2009-07-09T14:51:00.000-07:00

Players Remaining w/ chip counts

Edited

Doyle: Phil Ivey 346k, Harrington 181k
Jason: Isaac Baron 82k, Jason Somerville 290k
Nick/Matt: Chris Viox 114k, Joe Sebok 123k
Joe: Greg Raymer 96k, John Juanda 39k, Justin Bonomo 223k
Joel: Phil Hellmuth 143k, Elky 208k
Tom: JC Tran 285k, Nam Le 38k, Erik Seidel 56k, Carlos Mortensen 58k
Chris: Joe Hachem 139k
Matt S: 0 0k, nobody 0k zilch 0k

Ideal Day

2009-07-08T01:25:00.000-07:00

I am on to Day 3 of the Main Event with a slightly above average chip stack of 114K. Given the fact I was working on 3 to 4 hours sleep, I am very pleased with how the day went climbing from 43K to where I ended. I had a very tough table draw, and to increase my stack by more than 2.5x is more than I hoped for.

I now play Friday when all the remaining players are finally combined for the first time.

Good Luck on Wednesday for the following: Tom Fuller, Matt Viox, Matt Doyle, Seth Fischer, Paul Wasicka, Joel Patchell, and Matt Smith. Hopefully most of these guys can make it through to Friday also.

On to Day 2

2009-07-04T23:23:00.000-07:00

I will be playing on day 2 of the Main Event with a starting stack of 43550. This should be just about average. I had what I would call a very "professional" day. I was pretty much flop dead all day, except for a few hands. I made the most out of what I got, and picked my spots well at a bad table. The guy on my left was super laggy, but ran about as bad as I've seen. When he got knocked out a big stack sat down. He was very good, and wasn't afraid to make big bluffs. Then the guy 3 to my left was the biggest floater ever. He hated to fold post and made some insane call downs. I never hit anything of note against him to take him to value town. Then the guy 3 to my right was apparently Gbmantis (an extremely good online player). He came to the table in level 2 with 60k already.

So a laggy bludgeoner to my right, a lag then huge bluffer to my left, and a super call station to my left made for many difficult spots. I will therefore take my stack with a smile and hope for a better draw for day 2. Good luck to virtually all my friends tomorrow. Almost everyone I know is playing except for a couple playing on Monday.

Main Event Contest

2009-07-03T00:02:00.001-07:00

At dinner tonight, 8 of us decided to have a small ($20) contest for the main event of the WSOP.

The Rules:

1) 6 man teams
2) Points are earned as follows: Every pay jump a player of yours moves up you earn 1 pt (ie a minimum cash is worth 1 pt, the next pay jump up is worth 2 pts, etc)
3) Most pts wins - winner take all

Teams:

Doyle- Phil Ivey, Chino Rheem, Dan Harrington, Erick Lindgren, Scotty Nguyen, Alex Kamberis
Jason- Gus Hansen, Isaac Baron, Mike Sowers, Vitaly Lundkin, Eric Baldwin, Jason Somerville
Nick/Matt V- Allen Cunningham, Chris Viox, Maria Ho, Toph Moore, Joe Sebok, Mike Binger
Joe- Phil Galfond, Greg Raymer, Dario Mineiri, John Juanda, Justin Bonomo, Justin Smith
Joel- Phil Hellmuth, Elky, John Little, Chris Ferguson, Tom Dwan, Gavin Smith
Matt S- Mike Matusow, David Pham, Antonio Esfandari, Brandon Cantu, Barry Greenstein, Michael Banducci
Tom- JC Tran, Nam Le, Erik Seidel, Carlos Mortensen, Mike Mizrachi, Steve Sung
Chris- Jason Dewitt, Daniel Negreanu, Isaac Haxton, Joe Hachem, Danny Wong, Adam Freidman

I Can Shave

2009-07-02T01:03:00.000-07:00

This is for those of you who know what that means :)

New Event Same Result

2009-06-25T15:14:00.000-07:00

I got cripppled right before the 1st break of the 1500 PLO8 as a 60/40 favorite (and only a 23% of getting scooped). I made one mistake in this tourney costing me 1100, and I got somewhat unlucky on another hand I was bluffing (I knew the guy was on a draw) costing me a medium pot (and 2300 of my stack) when a guy hit a weak draw on the river against me. I was firing the river, but he hit his 12 outer.

I have yet to win an allin for my tourney life in any tourney out here unless I was at least a 60% favorite. I have four tourneys left including the Main Event.

Out

2009-06-22T18:57:00.000-07:00

I couldn't have been much colder. I was at an aggressive two tables, so the few pots I did win were big, but they were few and far between. In 3 1/2 levels I managed to bringin 5 total pots. I don't have too much else to say.

So This Is What Day 2 Is.....

2009-06-22T03:58:00.000-07:00

I just made it to the second day of the 8 Mixed Game (HORSE + 2 to 7, NLH, and PLO) at the WSOP. I finished the day at 39,400 with the average in the low 20s. Two big PLO hands kept me going early on before I finally hit a rush in the limit games. We are still a good ways away from the money (avg will be over 75k then). I have lots of work to still do.

Happy Fathers Day all dads!!!!!

Today's $1500

2009-06-20T18:04:00.000-07:00

Loved my play, hated my luck. I chipped up early on with shit for hands. Cbets and easy to read bluffing opportunities got my chips up to 8500 or so. Then I lost a big pot where I turned my hand into a bluff on a 4 flush board where I knew the guy could only go with the A of the suit. Too bad he had it. Then I patiently grinded a 3500-4500 stack before an internet donk who had shoved big anytime there were limpers, did it again for the 3rd straight hand (for 4050 at the 100/200 level) after a guy limped. I wake up with QQ. He has 88 and dinks an 8 on the river for a 8700 pot. Next hand I'm allin blind for 75 plus my ante. I get AA (no joke!). 55 runs me down though lol. I'm surprisingly calm with the whole ordeal given the way everything has gone.

I play the 8 Game Mixed $2500 tomorrow. Things will turn eventually....right? :)

A Start, But Not Much Else

2009-06-19T21:40:00.000-07:00

I played the $560 PLO at the Venetian the last 2 days. My low risk limping style was working beautifully, and for the most part I was playing perfectly. I had doubled up 2 or 3 times and busted 3 or 4 players, and the worst I had gotten it in the entire time was as a 60/40 favorite. Given that I had played 5-7 allin pots in PLO without being even in a coin flip situation is pretty amazing. Furthermore, I was sitting on 405k with 12 left (probably in 4th place or so) and had never really been a short stack. The bustout hand went down as follows. Six handed the UTG player raised to 45K at 8k/16k. He had never gotten out of line, and given the position of the raise I was fairly confident he had KK or AA. I called in the BB with (34d)25. The flop came (T4s)3. I led for 60K and he thought for a bit before potting it effectively putting me allin. I went with it virtually assured he had AxsAx, and knowing I was basically flipping depending on his other two cards. I knew his AA weren't immediate outs because of my straight draw. Sure enough he turned over AJsAJh. I was a 53% favorite, but the 8s hit the river. Moral of the story - avoid coin flips in PLO (just joking).

The cash was for a fairly meaningless $1586 due to the ridiculously top heavy structure employed by the Venetian. I really think if I won the hand I would have been about 3 to 1 to win it. As it was, I got my first cash for the trip. A few more to come hopefully.

Chicken or the Egg

2009-06-16T13:28:00.000-07:00

Simple question: If you are a poker player, why did you start playing?

Simple answer: To have fun.

Now some of you may have said to make money, but I would argue initially it was to have fun either online or with some friends and to hopefully come out ahead at the end of the day. Then when you found out you could really make some good money, it became far more interesting. Nevertheless, in the beginning it was for fun.

Why do I bring this up? Because I have been miserable of late. Losing day after day for weeks or months on end is horrible on one's spirit. This isn't just in poker. If you do any competitive activity and you lose repeatedly, it isn't going to be fun. This doesn't mean you don't still love to play the game.

So here is my theory, hypothesis, or whatever: I will play poker to have fun so that I will win. I will not play poker to win money so that I have fun.

The Master and Toph

2009-06-12T23:33:00.000-07:00

Original House of Pain members, Toph Moore and Jason Dewitt, have each had final table appearances the past two days. Jason finished 3rd in the $1500 Pot Limit Holdem while Toph just finished 4th in the $1500 NLH Shootout. Congrats to both of them on some phenomenal play. Interestingly, in the past 4 years, our house has had a final table appearance 3 times in the $1500 shootout (Jason 6th in 2006 and Tom 4th in 2007).

3K HORSE

2009-06-10T03:44:00.001-07:00

I got everything I wanted almost - a soft table that wasn't breaking and I played well, but the deck was unkind as I was pretty card dead after the first level (where I picked up 20 big bets). I grinded as long as I could while I watched some pretty weak play. However, in the last level of the night I ran pretty poorly. I lost 99 to AJ and 55 to 62 in holdem before tripling up in O8. My last hand typified the day though as I lost a 6543A to 6532A in Razz with three hands remaining in the day. Winning that pot would have given me some chips (7K) to play with entering day 2.

As long as I keep playing well something has to turn around soon (at least that's what I keep telling myself). As it is, I am still 0 for the series. My next event is the Stud 8/Omaha 8 tourney on Thursday.

Emotionally Crushed

2009-06-08T22:22:00.000-07:00

Pokerwise my confidence is possibly at all-time lows. It feels like everything I do turns out bad or unlucky. I have tried to remain as positive as I can, but it is a constant up hill battle. Desparation can only be useful if funneled into an intense focus. This is where I feel I am. I am focused at the tables as much as I can be. However, each and every bust out takes me just a little lower.

Not a Stud

2009-06-06T22:46:00.000-07:00

In the $1500 Stud, you would expect an easy table in general. Nope, not right now for me. Eli Elezra (big game regular) in seat 8; a donk in seat 7 and 6; Paul Darden in 5 (former world champ in stud), some 50/100 regular from AC in seat 5, a donk in 3, and some guy Eli described as one of the few guys who played bigger Stud games than him in seat 1. So out of 7 seats at my table 4 were either world class or extremely good. Then you throw in the fact that the 3 donks were running hot as hell, and I won 3 hands total in 3 hours, you know the result. WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dave Matthews Would Be Proud

2009-06-04T01:26:00.000-07:00

So I am playing some of my best poker in recent times in today's NLH 6-max, when I decide to hike up my skirt and ruin a good day. I wasn't hitting anything all day long, but I had built up my starting stack of 4500 to 8500 through floats and various bluffs at risk of my whole stack by using my image and reads to perfection. Then in one hand, I don't go with my initial instinct (which would have been to make a huge correct call for my tournament life), and instead of having 17-18k, I was left with 4600. Soon after I ran 77 into KK.

A Series of Unfortunate Events

2009-05-31T09:14:00.000-07:00

0-2

I was very happy with the way yesterday's $1K NLH was going until the last hour of the night. I had grinded a middle to below average stack for a good 4 hours before tripling up over the course of one round to over 30k (the average at the money). I was out about an hour later, after nothing went my way. I busted with 430ish of the 3000 players still left. There are way too many interesting hands to post (basically b/c I'm not really in the mood to take the time :) ).

I also busted in the $1500 O8 on Friday in the middle of the pack. I thought I played pretty well in it, but there is only so much you can do in a limit tourney if the cards aren't falling your way. I grinded it as best as I could, but it wasn't to be.

I get back in action on Monday in the $1500 PLO.

2009 Dubaya Ess Oh Pee

2009-05-25T12:58:00.000-07:00

Make or Break, Do or Die, Shit or Get Off the Pot - whatever phrase you want to use to describe a critical time in one's life or career. Over the course of the last 20 months or so my income from poker has dwindled mightily. I'm not sure if this is due to a long stretch of running bad or if I have some leaks I just can't figure out. This is the dilemma almost all poker players face when not making money for any extended period of time, and it is extremely tough emotionally/mentally.

Now I haven't lost money over that time, but I do have a family that I need to support. So I can't just break even forever. My outlay for the series is large enough that a horrible month and a half could make me reconsider my current direction in life. At the same time, the WSOP provides the opportunity to set my family up for years. Obviously the most likely scenario is somewhere in between (win or lose something that isn't too life changing).

As I arrive in Las Vegas this Thursday, my head is not where I want it pokerwise due to my aforementioned results. I have been quick to get down on myself or when bad beats occur. I am working hard to change this, but I admit I haven't been very successful. Everytime I think I have things going in the right direction again, a couple of bad weeks put me right back where I was. It has literally been months on end of 1 or 2 steps forward 1 or 2 steps back. I know one big score can change this. However, I would rather have my emotional outlook fixed internally rather than from an external source. For obvious reasons, this will serve me much better in the long run.

I'm staying with a good group of people (5 of us) in a house for the entire time. Julie and the kids will be coming out for 2 weeks about halfway through the series. My brother will be out for the main event. I expect the support and knowledge of my friends out there to be a big boost. I expect our house to do well. I expect myself to have a good series including a big score. I expect this to be the turn around I have been looking for.

Financial Update

2009-05-18T18:10:00.000-07:00

Over the course of last week, I moved most of my clients assets around. For the last 6 months, I have been trying to prepare for this. As some of you have known, I have been waiting for this monstrous rally since October. While it occurred a couple months later than I thought, it nonetheless has been fast and strikingly strong (roughly 35-40% in just over 2 months). Furthermore, I thought that once this rally peetered out, we could find ourselves in the midst of another major leg down. Whether this rally is done or not is yet to be seen, but we are very close to where I thought we would get to (the 200 day moving averages or between 9000-10000 on the Dow Jones). As a result, I have started to get very nervous. I am officially in my uber-conservative portfolio preparing for a potential major downswing. I believe the current risk/reward in the markets is horrible (meaning the upside potential from here is dwarfed by the downside).

Despite my feelings, I have told my clients we could continue to be in an up market maybe even two more years simply due to the massive stimulus the government has supplied. However because I feel this stimulus is nothing more than a short-term jolt (with probably zero potential for long-term GDP growth), once the money runs dry we will be in an even worse position than before. Higher debt levels and higher interest rates will likely be the case. At the point this occurs and the market rolls over, watch out! It could be in the next few weeks or a couple years out. I truly feel the only way we will not go far lower from here in the markets is if the fed allows inflation to run rampant. This will help stocks go up (because earnings will be higher due to the cheapening dollar), but with inflation super high everyone's purchasing power will likely drop substantialy. While the markets will look different under the two scenarios, the end result will be relatively the same. Most people will be far worse off at the end.

My odds:

We don't drop significantly lower from here: 20%
We retest the March lows (mid 6000s on the Dow) within the next 2 years, but they hold: 35%
We break down through the March lows within the next couple years: 45%

The Streak is Over!!!!

2009-05-12T17:35:00.000-07:00

No we aren't talking about Moon's days as a Single Man, or J's days in a row not waking up before noon. We are talking about my cashless streak in the FTOPS. In an embarrassing admission, I had failed to cash in 36 straight FTOPS events (0 for my last 4 back in November, 0-23 this February, and 0-9 until today in this version). The blind hog found an acorn!!!!!

FTOPS (LOL)!

2009-05-06T13:56:00.000-07:00

Usually I write about my goals for a series such as this, but after the last FTOPS where I shot a blistering 0-24, I have decided to just see what happens. However, to increase my chances of an ever elusive cash I will also be playing most of the mini-FTOPS as well. I won't be playing every event due to some scheduling conflicts, but most will be played. To say I could use a bankroll jump going into the WSOP is an understatement. I was hoping to be up 50k going into the WSOP, and while I am up on the year, I have a ways to go to get to that goal.

The Worst Play Ever?!?!

2009-04-23T10:36:00.000-07:00

The Situation: A super-satellite with 15 guys moving on. 16 guys remain. ACEHILL69 is in the top 5.

The Hand:

PokerStars Game #27408180382: Tournament #156609625, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (2000/4000) - 2009/04/23 13:32:47 ETTable '156609625 10' 9-max
Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: jack1oo (6450 in chips)
Seat 2: kajjorg (17230 in chips)
Seat 4: Noctambulist (20355 in chips)
Seat 5: neela (54878 in chips)
Seat 6: budman1 (21570 in chips)
Seat 7: ACEHILL93 (32462 in chips)
Seat 8: gofast111 (13230 in chips)
jack1oo: posts the ante 400
kajjorg: posts the ante 400
Noctambulist: posts the ante 400
neela: posts the ante 400
budman1: posts the ante 400
ACEHILL93: posts the ante 400
gofast111: posts the ante 400
neela: posts small blind 2000
budman1: posts big blind 4000
*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to budman1 [Qs 3c]
ACEHILL93: raises 4000 to 8000
gofast111: folds
jack1oo: folds
kajjorg: folds
Noctambulist: folds
neela: calls 6000
budman1: folds
*** FLOP *** [2c 4h 4d]
neela: checks
ACEHILL93: checks
*** TURN *** [2c 4h 4d] [5d]
neela: bets 12000
ACEHILL93: calls 12000
*** RIVER *** [2c 4h 4d 5d] [6c]
neela: bets 12000
ACEHILL93: calls 12000 (leaving himself 63 in chips)
*** SHOW DOWN ***
neela: shows [5s 7s] (two pair, Fives and Fours)
ACEHILL93: mucks hand
neela collected 70800 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 70800 Rake 0
Board [2c 4h 4d 5d 6c]
Seat 5: neela (small blind) showed [5s 7s] and won (70800) with two pair, Fives and Fours
Seat 7: ACEHILL93 mucked [Jh Ah]

Eye of the Hurricane

2009-04-17T09:24:00.000-07:00

Like standing in the eye of the hurricane, to the uneducated it may seem like the worst is done. The sun may come out for a time; the wind dies down almost completely; and for a moment hope takes over. However to the knowledgable, this is only a small respite with the worst possibly still to come.

The long awaited bear market rally I thought would come late last year has been in place for over a month now. Could this be the start of a new bull market?...yes. However, the likelihood of that in my opinion is definitely less than 50%. All that has happened is the government has thrown trillions of dollars into the economy and into banks to try to stop the tidal wave. This will obviously help, but probably only short-term. For one thing, the great majority of this money has not been used for anything that will help the economy over the long-run. Just like in '02 when the fed dropped interest rates drastically, the market rallied. However, giving easy money to people and the United States as a whole, is a horrible approach when the debt levels are already at historic highs. There are no free lunches! If I gave a person with 100k of debt and an annual income of 20K another 100k that he must spend; he will have some fun for a while and may even feel more wealthy. Yet, when the debt has to be repaid and his job still pays the same, he isn't better off. In fact, he is far worse off! Where we are right now is in the midst of the fun money spending.

I could see this lasting anywhere from a couple more months to maybe a year or more. However, when it does end, it will be ugly with a capital U G L Y. My high end expectation on the DJIA is around 10,000. So I think this rally could have a ways to go. During this time, gold will likely continue to suffer (with a max downside target of $700/oz, it is currently at $870/oz) as people believe the worst is behind us. I expect this to be the last great buying opportunity for it for some time (for silver too). By the end of the market's bounce, most individuals and market professionals will believe the bear market is long gone and start putting all their cash back into play. The overall mood will probably be borderline exuberant again despite that the underlying fundamentals of the economy will have not improved much or at all.

Remember, this is just my best guess. I would put my estimate at maybe 60-70% likelihood. Another scenraio is just a retest of the March lows in the 6500 range on the DJIA (10-20%). The last and best case scenario would be that we already hit the lows and the future is bright (10-20%).

Amendment: I just listened to a great interview talking about economics and the current state of the economy. I would strongly recommend this not just for a learning tool, but also as a must know for anyone concerned about the direction of our government and in particular the fed.

Here is the link (it is the April 11th episode 2nd Hour): http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

da Blues!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2009-04-10T22:10:00.001-07:00

A few weeks back, I wrote about the St. Louis Blues and the ridiculous run they've been on. Well, tonight they clinched a playoff birth for the first time since the lockout. This had to be one of the most improbable scenarios the NHL has seen in years. At the midway point of the season, the Blues were 16-22-3 for a mere 35 points. They were anywhere from 8 to 12 points behind the playoff contenders and sat in last place (15th) in the conference. In the last 40 games (they still have 1 left on Sunday), they have gone 24-8-7 for 55 points. This is tops in the league over that time, and they did it without their top 2 defensemen (Brewer and Johnson) and arguably their top offensive player (Kariya). Half the players on the roster are 25 or younger. This video is just one reason the fans love these young guns. I can't wait to watch them in the playoffs starting next week.

SCOOPilicious!

2009-04-08T00:09:00.000-07:00

I just scooped a SCOOP. I won the $30 Stud H/L tourney in Pokerstars SCOOP for just under 10k. I beat out over 3000 people for the title. I ran pretty well, but the competition was so soft it didn't really matter. There were only a handful of decent players I even saw the whole way. However, I am really tired so that's all I got.

How Geitner, the Fed and the Government continue to try to @#$% us!

2009-04-01T07:27:00.001-07:00

The following is a very good explanation of what Geitner's new bank plan will likely do to the American taxpayer:

Toph Cooks Up a Pi

2009-03-21T06:58:00.000-07:00

Congrats to Chris (Toph) Moore on his 3rd place finish at the Shooting Star. In what has been a recurring dream for him, every mid March he plays a 10K event and finishes in the top 3. In 2007, it was a 3rd at the Wynn Classic. Last year, it was a win in the same Wynn Classic. So why didn't he play the Wynn Classic again this year? It started on the same day as this tourney, and because of that they weren't expecting much more than 50 players. Toph opted for the Shooting Star instead. I guess this means next year, he will win this tourney if history repeats.

In addition, about a month ago Toph got 2nd in the 10k HU tourney at the LAPC. With both of these finishes, he should move into 5th or 6th in card players POY standings.

KABOOM!!!!!

2009-03-18T14:40:00.000-07:00

Today the fed dropped a bomb on the markets. They announced basically that they are going to be purchasing $1.1 trillion dollars of agency debt and treasuries. This is called monetizing the debt, and essentially is creating money out of thin air. Upon announcing this interest rates plummeted (refinance if you can BTW), the dollar plummeted (get rid of your dollars), and gold skyrocketed (getcha some). Short-term this will likely provide a boost to the economy because of the liquidity it will provide, but long-term this is very bad for the US unless the government/fed is extremely careful. Historically the government has never been good at pulling out of the market effectively. When they do try to withdraw the liquidity, our economy will likely freeze up again, and if they don't withdraw it, inflation will likely spike much higher. In the meantime, we continue to go more and more into debt.

Ironically, the people on CNBC pretty much called Bernanke a genius, and seemed to think this was the best thing since sliced bread (or at least the best thing since the last time the fed did something similar). They are so short-sighted it is unbelievable. If the potential effects of any action are further than a few months out, they ignore it. Did anyone talk about what this may do 3 years from now? Give me a break! Kramer about blew his wad talking about how everyone can refinance their mortgages now at even better rates (which they can and I would advise), but as before this is what led us into the current problem - EASY MONEY! Throw money at it! What did Greenspan do everytime there was a problem? Throw money at it! What has Bernanke done every time? Throw money at it! Give the drunk his drink - that'll solve the problem.

The only (I repeat only) way to grow an economy is to actually produce something or provide some useful service. You can't create money out of thin air to grow an economy. Sure everyone will have more of it, but each additional dollar purchases less goods due to inflation. So you aren't any better off. In fact, the economy is actually worse off because the government (or better put - the taxpayer, you and I) has a larger interest payment each year.

Here is my advice:

1) Refinance if you can.
2) Instead of spending the money you save each month from refinancing (which is what the government hopes everyone will do, but will just make you worse off), put it in precious metals or pay off any debt (if you have some). Essentially make your self wealthier. Another idea is to buy nonperishable goods. I expect food prices may rise substantially in the next couple years. Stockpiling some food that doesn't go bad can't hurt you, but may help.
3) Do not keep alot of US Dollars. This can be done by buying ETFs that invest in foreign currencies (such as the Canadian Dollar - symbol FXC, or Austrailian Dollar - symbol FXA). Gold/silver purchases serve this purpose also.
4) Pray that the mess our government is getting us deeper and deeper into doesn't explode.

I could go on and on about this, but if you want to talk about it more, just give me a call.

Fun Days

2009-03-16T07:21:00.000-07:00

Today marks the beginning of my favorite week of sports - the first four days of March Madness. This is by far the best format of any championship event out there.

However, there is something else out there on my sports horizon: the St. Louis Blues. I have always been a huge Blues fan, but since the lockout, they have been the league's cellar dwellar. Yet in the last couple years under new management, a dramtaic turnaround is in the works. Earlier this year they were at least 10 points out of the playoffs and in last place in the conference. This wasn't totally unexpected as one of the youngest and most injured teams. Their two best defenseman, and one of their top offensive players are out for the year. Throw in a bunch of other top line players who have missed a handful of games and your starting goalie getting placed on waivers, you have the recipe for a long year with the young guys getting their feet wet in the NHL.

Nevertheless, coach Andy Murray has them playing their asses off every game. Now they are one of the hottest teams in the league, and sit a mere 1 point out of the playoffs with less than 15 games left for all the teams. The Blues youngsters are a blast to watch. TJ Oshie (age 22 and easily my favorite player to watch - picture the tasmanian devil from cartoons on skates), Patrik Berglund (age 20), David Backes (age 24), and David Perron (age 20) have Blues fans salivating at the future of this team. In addition, Eric Johnson (age 20) is our top defenseman and one of the guys out for the year. They may not make the playoffs this year because their upcoming schedule is ridiculously tough, but I will be surprised if this team doesn't make a serious run for the Cup within the next three years. If they can keep these guys together for a while, you may be seeing the beginning of the next dynasty in the NHL.

KK

2009-03-08T18:56:00.000-07:00

I never knew I'd hate KK so much. In seven NLH tourneys today I ran KK into AA four times. Three times it busted me (with two being late in fairly big tourneys for a big stack) and once it crippled me in the Sunday Million. I lost with it a couple times vs Ax hands also. On a good note (I guess), I've gone from not cashing at all to inconsequential cashes. Next step ???????????

Tailspin

2009-03-04T16:24:00.000-08:00

Since the beginning of February, I have basically lost money almost every single day I've played poker. I am still up on the year due to my one nice win, but what was once a great start to the year has turned into the SOS (same old .....) I've been struggling through for the better part of nine months or more. I wish I could get a grip on what I may be doing wrong, or if this is just one massive semi-cold streak. I haven't cashed in 24 straight tourneys. This comes right after my streak of 27 straight. Cash games haven't been any better.

For example, today I played four hours of PLO on 2 tables (2/4 and 3/6). I did not win one large pot the entire time. In fact, the largest pot I did win was a triple barrel bluff. I made a fair amount of moves and almost all of them worked, and yet at the end of the session I was down nearly $1500 because every single big pot got pushed to my opponent. It was one of the more frustrating sessions I've ever played due to the fact I felt I played really well and didn't land one big pot. Keep in mind this is PLO. Big pots happen very regularly. This is how it seems things have been going for a while. The problem is - is my objectivity objective enough. I keep feeling I must be doing something wrong even though it doesn't seem so to me. Any concrete help is very welcome.

Gold/Silver Update

2009-02-18T10:19:00.000-08:00

I first mentioned gold on here on October 24. I then outright pleaded for people to get some in their investment portfolios on November 6th. Here is what has happened since then in the S&P 500 and the five gold/silver holding I have in many portfolios:

_______10/24__11/6__Today_____Returns

S&P 500 870.4__ 908.6_ 791.30__ -9.09% -12.91%

Gold____ 737___ 737___ 975____ 32.29% 32.29%

Silver___ 9.23__ 10.00_ 14.18___ 53.63% 41.80%

GDX___ 17.80__ 21.93_ 36.66 ___105.96% 67.17%

AUY___ 4.03___ 4.67__ 9.40___ 133.25% 101.29%

SLW ___3.44___ 3.73__ 7.33____ 113.08% 96.52%

Who knows what will happen tomorrow. Maybe all of these will plummet, but I will say I still hold all of these. I don't plan on selling them for the foreseeable future due to the governments continued efforts to throw money at anything they see as troubled. While gold, silver and their stocks may have a pullback due to the incredible runs they've had recently, I fully believe they all have much higher to go. I hope everyone took my recommendation, but if you still have yet to get into them, the best way to do so at this point is probably to average in.

NCAA Bball

2009-02-16T11:26:00.000-08:00

I've been thinking over the past couple days what the top 5 programs are historically in NCAA hoops. You can use whatever criteria you think are most important. However, this isn't a current list, but a historical list. My top five are:

1) Kansas
2) UCLA
3) North Carolina
4) Indiana
5) Kentucky

Ironically, I don't like any of these teams. There is a good chance I missed a team because I didn't look anything up. I just tried to think through the various conferences. Let me know what you think.

Hall of Shame

2009-02-13T21:57:00.001-08:00

Play while you read this post (2008 House of Pain people will understand)

What do the following all have in common (this should be easy for any halfway decent sports trivia buff):

Mexico 9 (FIFA World CUP)
Washington Capitols/San Jose Sharks 17 (NHL)
Cleveland Indians 24 (MLB)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 (NFL)
Anthony Young 27 (MLB - P)
PiMaster 25 (FTOPS)

The answer, of course, is they all are the longest losing streaks in their respective sports (ties not included). Yes, I have gone an incredible 25 straight FTOPS events without a cash. Four occurred last series, and the first twenty-one events of this series. To be honest, I haven't even gotten close to a cash. Given my historical cash rate of about 20%, this has approximately a 0.38% (.8^25) chance of occurring during any 25 tourneys (or about 1 in 265). So while it is very improbable, it will occur on rare occasion. I have about the same likelihood of cashing 11 times (0.40%) during any 25 events (I won't explain that math for you - it's a little more detailed).

The good news (I guess) is that it is unlikely to occur again in my lifetime for the FTOPS. However, it will likely happen again through just regular tournament play online. Interestingly, if your cash rate is around 15% (still decent), this has a 1.72% chance of happening (merely 1 in 58). This shows how streaky poker can be.

The last time I had a series go this poorly to start was the 2007 WSOP. I bricked out on the first 16 events that year, but I bailed myself out in the Main Event to only end the series down a tad. It would be a nice de ja vu if it could happen again. I have three events left I plan on playing - PLO w/ Rbs, NLH Bounty, and the Main Event.

Detroit Lions or House of Pain?

2009-02-10T13:59:00.000-08:00

---Guest Writer------

Tom Fuller recently wrote a blog on 2010 Super Bowl Odds. The Detroit Lions are getting 100/1 to win the Super Bowl next year. The Lions turned in a terrible season in 09 and it doesn't look too promising in the future.

On a similar note, House of Pain is now 1/39 in cashes in the FTOPs. I have no clue where the team standsin the Pocket 5s contest, being that this is Matt Viox writing this blog, but I would give the House of Pain a slight edge over the Detroit Lions. I more importantly hope this team can just finish strong with their heads high as this has been an embarrassment to all friends and family. With Ben Lamb having the only cash for the squad, I'm sure he is looking to jump ship after his free agency is up in March. I don't know how much other teams will be looking at him, with the underperforming season he is currently having, but Pi and J will have a much tougher time finding someone to join them next FTOPS. The market for players is already competitive, and considering Pi's social skills and J's sleeping habits, the House of Pain faces a huge hurdle. It is necessary that this team finish with at least 2 final tables out of the remaining tournaments in order to attract players in the future. Yes, this team is in shambles, but I think they can do it. I bet on House of Pain.

Now Exactly How I Imagined It

2009-02-08T20:38:00.000-08:00

FTOPS Summary:

Me 0-10
J 0-10
Ben 1-10

Now we are not out of it yet because there are still 15 events left. However, we are definitely behind the 8-ball. We sit in 7th place. I will say right now, things could not have gone worse, and I expect a big week. Will it be enough? I'm not sure. Check back and see.

Update through 3 Events

2009-02-06T07:09:00.000-08:00

The good news - we are in first place in total points. The bad news - we really only have two scores that are any good. In reality, we are more likely in about 4th place when you look at the top 3 scores. We have to use 24 scores and their are 25 events. So essentially 1 score on average per event is used. The reason we are leading is our bad scores (scores that eventually won't be used once enough scores are in) are better than the other teams, but they are pointless in the whole scheme of things.

I have yet to cash. I haven't really been close, nor has J. However, Ben has had one deep run and another decent run. He has our two scores that are good so far.

By the way, here are the other 10 teams:

1) mig.com, apestyles, peachymer
2) jse81, TheFatFish, The_D__RY
3) NEONPILS99, captinbiskut, shipitobv
4) bigdogpckt5s, imabigkidnow, dipthrong
5) ckingusc, ScoopandStack, Thay3r
6) titantom32, UFMan2, mjr2369
7) govshark2, gimmeda1time, chicagocards1
8) JCarver, Moorman1, GetPWN3d
9) GeoffRas22, tedsfishfry, Bussa Bus
10) rusostreet, sampson724, truesylose

The first 2 teams are the ones I think are the biggest competition.

FTOPS XI

2009-02-04T15:55:00.000-08:00

Once again I have gotten in the Pocket 5's team event. This time my teammates are Jason Dewitt and Ben Lamb (TheMasterJ33 and benba). It looks like it will have around 12-15 teams I think. I would lay our odds at about 4 to 1 to win even though we are facing some perceived stiff competition. They will be paying 2 spots (unless we reach 20 teams), and I would think our chances of "cashing" are 33%. Despite the big names in the contest, a handful of teams will not play enough events (this always happens and unless they go off, they have no real shot), and another handful are just NLH specialists (this group has a small edge in the NLH events, but a huge disadvantage in the other games). You can follow the contest here:

http://ftops.pocketfives.com/ I will also likely provide updates every day or two.

My tentative schedule will include every event but the 5K event (unless I get a big score or satellite in). This will be 24 events and I'd like 5 cashes minimum. A final table is always one of my goals, and a win would be the icing on the cake to continue the solid start I've had in 2009.

A Good Start

2009-02-01T08:55:00.000-08:00

Yesterday capped off my a very good month in poker when I placed 3rd in a $200 PLO tourney on Full Tilt for $5200. I really should have won this thing considering I had over 70% of the chips in play with 3 of us left, and the other two guys were fairly bad. However, PLO is still PLO and when you miss two wraps and get AA cracked twice a good thing can turn sour quickly. In the 50 MTT's I played during the month I had 4 second tables and 3 final tables (placing 1st, 3rd and 6th).

Cash games also went well for me. I have been focusing almost solely on PLO. Even though I am playing fairly low limits (2/4 to 5/10), I have been consistently making about 20 big bets an hour/table. I don't know how long this will continue, but I feel like the games are fairly easy and am completely in a comfort zone right now.

January of '09 was my 7th best month ever. More significantly though, it was my 2nd best month since the summer of '07. Interestingly, 6 of my top 10 months occurred in the magical year of '06 capped off by Paul's 2nd place finish in the big one. I doubt I will ever have a year like that again where everything went right from day 1 until day 365. I'm not saying I won't ever make more money in a year because there is some likelihood I will have a major score one day that eclipses that year all in one fell swoop.

In any case, I hope January is a harbinger for the year. The "Year of the Ox" is off to a good start.

Chinese New Year

2009-01-26T14:44:00.000-08:00

All potential opponents on the felt beware!!!! The year of (V-) Ox has begun!

A Changing Tide???

2009-01-21T06:39:00.000-08:00

The two following rulings may be the start of something good for the online poker industry:

1) Finally a judge that doesn't use outdated historical precedent to make a ruling

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/article/5939/pennsylvania-judge-rules-poker-is-a-game-of-skill

2) Well this one is and has been completely ridiculous from the beginning

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/article/5940/kentucky-appeals-court-says-dont-touch-domain-names

Massive Relief

2009-01-18T21:12:00.000-08:00

I just took down a 4000+ player $55 tourney in Stars for 26K. I'm wasn't even feeling happy right afterwards. It was like a weight was lifted off my shoulders, and I just felt very relieved. I haven't made much money for a while, and even though this isn't a huge score, it sure goes a long way for me right now. To say I needed it is an understatement. Hopefully, this is a sign of a change going forward.

Courtesy Poker Blog

2009-01-15T18:39:00.000-08:00

Semi standard hand but I enjoyed the talking afterwards:

Stage #1410839822 Tourney ID 2118847 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament Pot Limit $40 - 2009-01-15 21:17:55 (ET)Table: 14 (Real Money) Seat #7 is the dealer
Seat 1 - ASSEENONTV ($3137.50 in chips)
Seat 2 - PIMASTER ($4227.50 in chips)
Seat 3 - HEAVENSMONEY ($3460 in chips)
Seat 4 - ZILEX69 ($742.50 in chips)
Seat 5 - MYNINETOFIVE ($2360 in chips)
Seat 6 - 3BARRELEDU ($4325 in chips)
Seat 7 - BLUEBAYOU17 ($3140 in chips)
Seat 8 - 2DIMES ($2810 in chips)
Seat 9 - LUCKYACES08 ($2747.50 in chips)
2DIMES - Posts small blind $20
LUCKYACES08 - Posts big blind $40
*** POCKET CARDS ***Dealt to PIMASTER [10d 10h]
ASSEENONTV - Folds
PIMASTER - Raises $100 to $100
HEAVENSMONEY - Calls $100 (cant fold pre)
ZILEX69 - Folds
MYNINETOFIVE - Folds
3BARRELEDU - Folds
BLUEBAYOU17 - Folds
2DIMES - Folds
LUCKYACES08 - Folds
*** FLOP *** [8s Kd 9c]
PIMASTER - Bets $150
HEAVENSMONEY - Calls $150
*** TURN *** [8s Kd 9c] [3d]
PIMASTER - Checks (he cant help bluffing)
HEAVENSMONEY - Bets $280
PIMASTER - Calls $280
*** RIVER *** [8s Kd 9c 3d] [6s]
PIMASTER - Checks
HEAVENSMONEY - Bets $1120
PIMASTER - Calls $1120
*** SHOW DOWN ***HEAVENSMONEY - Shows [10s Qd] (king high)
PIMASTER - Shows [10d 10h] (One pair, tens)
PIMASTER Collects $3360 from main pot

HEAVENSMONEY: man what a bs call
PIMASTER: ty!
PIMASTER: bs means big stud right?
HEAVENSMONEY: keep calling me next time youll double me up punk
PIMASTER: that wont hurt too much anymore

Happy New Year!

2009-01-01T16:38:00.000-08:00

..............and #$^%^& 2008.

Hopefully, a year from now I won't be regretting that statement and longing for the glory(?) days of 2008.

Merry Christmas

2008-12-24T06:45:00.001-08:00

In what has been a historic year in the world, many people have had difficult years financially due to their jobs or their savings. However, as long as you still have your friends and family, no year is ever truly bad. Appreciate what you have! I know I am blessed beyond measure because of this, and nothing will take this away from me. Here is a link to a friend of mine's blog. I think he states things very well: http://www.straight108.blogspot.com/

Merry Christmas from the Viox's!

I Challenge Thee

2008-12-10T19:16:00.000-08:00

I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker!

The WBCOOP is an online Poker tournament open to all Bloggers.

Registration code:
document.write(paramCode)
291661

Precipice

2008-11-20T11:11:00.000-08:00

11
10.5
10 ..........................................few months
9.5 ...................................next................. if
9 ...................y ha.en..the......................... thi
8.5................a... pp. in................................. ngs...pen
8 ..This......m.................................................... hap...as
7.5......is...at...................................................................I...in
7 ..........wh...................................................................... th. k
6.5.......................................................................................... it
6 ...............................................................................................wi
5.5 ...............................................................................................ll
5

However the other likely scenarios are: 1) we don't have big rally I expect after falling from where we at 2) we hold this level for the long term and go sideways in a wide range for some time

Once again, I hope I'm wrong, but things are still getting worse despite the governments best (worst?) efforts. We are definitely hanging on by a thread. The greed and lying of our political and financial leaders have led us to this point, and more than likely they will lead America and the world over the precipice like a bunch of lemmings.

FTOPS Over and Done

2008-11-16T23:21:00.001-08:00

Another FTOPS is finished, and once again I have had a poor monetary series (which is all that matters). I didn't play the full slate of tournies this time due to other commitments, but I did manage 17 of the 25 events. I had 3 cashes (18%), and once again I got teased with a big finish only to come up short. I had a 26th in PLO, and a 40th in PLO8. Neither paid too much, and this has become a reoccuring theme for me in the FTOPS. I actually went back to look at all my FTOPS results because I am ranked 50th or so in their all-time rankings, but I feel like I have done very poorly in them.

I have 24 cashes; 16 of which qualify for their point system (top 72). However, my top 4 finishes are a 7th, a 17th, and two 26ths. THAT IS PATHETIC! Either I am doing something fundamentally wrong late in tournies, or I am just running like $%#$% at the wrong times.

This weekend I did have two final tables and another 15th in some $200 Pokerstars tournies. Unfortunately, they were small fields. I got the 15th in O8; I had a 6th in PLO8, and a 4th in Razz. These three finishes got me to about breakeven for the weekend in tournies.

Oh, and BTW please read the blog below on gold. I truly believe this is VERY important for anyone with a decent amount of assets.

Piece of Advice

2008-11-06T14:13:00.000-08:00

Buy some gold.....................

If I'm wrong about what possibly lies ahead, this will be a small mistake. If I'm right, then it will rise substantially. Gold stocks are an idea too, although they will be far more volatile than physical gold (at least 4 times more volatile currently). This is great if gold increases. FWIW, I am becoming more and more invested in some form of gold at about a 2:1 ratio of stocks vs. physical.

If you want to discuss any ideas, I will be more than pleased to talk with you.

Difficult Day

2008-11-02T05:21:00.000-08:00

Yesterday, we had to put our family dog, Abby, to sleep. She had been in our family for about 13 years, first with my parents, then with my brother, and finally with us the last year or two. This was hard in itself, but it was really difficult explaining it to my daughter. She's definitely old enough to know what's going on. To say the least, all of us shed many tears. Ellie is extremely caring and empathetic, and these are great traits for someone so young. Her major concern with all of this made us smile and cry all at the same time. She was worried when we go to heaven that we would never be able to find Abby because someone else would have already taken her from the pet store. Also, as kids often do, she drew many pictures to help deal with the loss. It's probably why kids are so resilient. They do not hold anything back.

Actually writing this has been difficult. So I'll make it short. As my dad said when he said his good-byes, "Abby you were a good dog." Thank you.

The Truth About Paulson

2008-10-31T12:50:00.000-07:00

Back when he worked for Goldman Sachs, he testified before Congress that getting rid of the 12:1 leverage laws for financial institutions would be a good thing. This law had been in place for a long time to protect from overleveraging. Essentially the more leverage a person or business is, the smaller cushion there is for a downturn. Sure in good times, it ramps up profits, but if things turn sour you have a bankruptcy in the making. After the law was passed to get rid of limits on leverage. Many of the financial institutions that you see everyday in the news ramped up their leverage to 40 and 50:1. This meant that even a miniscule 2 to 2.5% move to the negative would jeopardize the financial staility of these companies. Thus, when defaults started to roll in on mortgages that never should have been lended, the companies were in deep %#&*! Especially given the fact that they were heavy into unregulated financial deritives (that were once again mainly used by firms like ......Goldman Sachs and the other big investment brokerage houses).

So what does Paulson do? He rides in to save them by lying to the American public with the infamous bailout bill. The $700 million bill was supposed to be used to buy up toxic securities to clear out the bad debt. How has it been used? Well $125 billion has gone to large banks with basically no strings attached. In fact, many of these same banks are still paying out large bonuses to their employees. More has been used to set up lines of credit with many emerging market countries. However, not one penny has been used as Paulson sold it to CONgress and America. He's used most so far to bailout his former coworkers so they can keep their nice lifestyles. Most people would consider this a crime worthy of a long time in jail. America needs to rise up and demand culpability for everyone involved in this lynching of the future of America. Hopefully, the damage will be limited to what we've seen so far (which is massive), but it likely is just the start.

For what it's worth, Bernanke, Congress, Bush, and Wall Street are all largely to blame also, but Paulson is the posterchild.

Here We Go!

2008-10-24T10:13:00.000-07:00

Last Wednesday, I wrote within the next couple weeks we could easily see 7000-7500 on the Dow Jones. If things continue to go as I think are possible based on my best guess, we should end today somwhere near the lows and then hit a short term low sometime next Monday or Tuesday at the aforementioned level. At that point, I would look for a 3-5 month rally into the 10000-11000 range. At that point I would put a bunch of limit sell orders under many of my positions because if things continue to go as I see, that could be the point where things go down for a while.

Once again, this is just my best guess. However, for the last couple weeks things have been going almost exactly as I thought would happen. While this is confirming my beliefs of the extreme danger our economy faces, what lies ahead is still to be determined. Nothing has been fixed yet, and if this is still the case a few months out, be very very careful. Hopefully, the economy will start to become stronger over the winter. If it does, the 7000's may be far into the rearview mirror, but don't count on it.

Besides the strong cash heavy stocks with good dividends, I am currently very bullish on gold/gold stocks, and very bearish on the US dollar and US Treasury Bonds. Gold may not have hit a near-term bottom yet, but I think is a very good play over the next 3 year time frame. In the same respect the Dollar and Treasuries have rallied hard recently. This may continue for the near-term, but I see them much lower in value a few years out. All of this is based on my best guess belief that things will not get better soon. For what it's worth, I would put this at about 30-40% likelihood of happening (I'm not talking exact numbers, but rather a low hit early next week followed by a strong rally, followed by a sell-off to even lower lows sometime next year).

Hollywood Studios

2008-10-21T06:03:00.000-07:00

This was easily my favorite place even though it had the fewest attractions. However, most of the attractions are good. We saw two different stunt shows: one based on Indiana Jones and the other on car chases. Other top-notch attractions were the Star Wars flight simulator and the Toy Story ride. The Toy Story "interactive experience" is the most popular attraction, and it's easy to see why: Joe actually liked it (and it involved a tunnel ride)!! It's a 3-d shooting game. They keep your score and we rode it 3 times during the day.

We come home today, and despite the fun, I am ready. Joe is getting sick and my back is very sore (this is not unusual lately, but it's getting worse).

Animal Kingdom/Epcot

2008-10-18T18:31:00.000-07:00

Today went much smoother than yesterday despite not obeying rule number one. In fact, not obeying it may have been the only problem as Joe got grumpy as dinner time approached. Extremely grumpy! However, once we got some food in him and the various princesses came around for photos, he got rather happy:)

At Animal Kingdom, Ellie found her favorite ride: essentially a white water rapid ride similar to Thunder River at Six Flags. She went on it twice, once with me and once with Julie. We also went on a fairly cool Safari adventure attraction where you ride among many African animals in an open air vehicle. Ellie once again surprised me by riding the Expedition Everest roller coaster and enjoying it, but "not as much as Space Mountain." Joe once again surprised me by being afraid of anything and everything loud, dark, or having sharp teeth.

At Epcot, one of the coolest attractions (even though designed mainly for kids) is the Turtle Talk(?) with Crush from Finding Nemo. It uses a fairly new technology that recognizes speech so that the animals on the large computer screen can actually interact with the audience. It does so flawlessly, and is designed with a decent amount of humor. Joe almost enjoyed it, if it wasn't for the whale that comes on at the end of the show. Oh well.

Tomorrow, will be a far less busy day. We have an early dinner at the Coral Reef in Epcot. We may stay there late to see the show at the end of the day or go over to Hollywood Studios to see its nightly show.