The Situation: A super-satellite with 15 guys moving on. 16 guys remain. ACEHILL69 is in the top 5.
The Hand:
PokerStars Game #27408180382: Tournament #156609625, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (2000/4000) - 2009/04/23 13:32:47 ETTable '156609625 10' 9-max
Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: jack1oo (6450 in chips)
Seat 2: kajjorg (17230 in chips)
Seat 4: Noctambulist (20355 in chips)
Seat 5: neela (54878 in chips)
Seat 6: budman1 (21570 in chips)
Seat 7: ACEHILL93 (32462 in chips)
Seat 8: gofast111 (13230 in chips)
jack1oo: posts the ante 400
kajjorg: posts the ante 400
Noctambulist: posts the ante 400
neela: posts the ante 400
budman1: posts the ante 400
ACEHILL93: posts the ante 400
gofast111: posts the ante 400
neela: posts small blind 2000
budman1: posts big blind 4000
*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to budman1 [Qs 3c]
ACEHILL93: raises 4000 to 8000
gofast111: folds
jack1oo: folds
kajjorg: folds
Noctambulist: folds
neela: calls 6000
budman1: folds
*** FLOP *** [2c 4h 4d]
neela: checks
ACEHILL93: checks
*** TURN *** [2c 4h 4d] [5d]
neela: bets 12000
ACEHILL93: calls 12000
*** RIVER *** [2c 4h 4d 5d] [6c]
neela: bets 12000
ACEHILL93: calls 12000 (leaving himself 63 in chips)
*** SHOW DOWN ***
neela: shows [5s 7s] (two pair, Fives and Fours)
ACEHILL93: mucks hand
neela collected 70800 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 70800 Rake 0
Board [2c 4h 4d 5d 6c]
Seat 5: neela (small blind) showed [5s 7s] and won (70800) with two pair, Fives and Fours
Seat 7: ACEHILL93 mucked [Jh Ah]
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Friday, April 17, 2009
Eye of the Hurricane
Like standing in the eye of the hurricane, to the uneducated it may seem like the worst is done. The sun may come out for a time; the wind dies down almost completely; and for a moment hope takes over. However to the knowledgable, this is only a small respite with the worst possibly still to come.
The long awaited bear market rally I thought would come late last year has been in place for over a month now. Could this be the start of a new bull market?...yes. However, the likelihood of that in my opinion is definitely less than 50%. All that has happened is the government has thrown trillions of dollars into the economy and into banks to try to stop the tidal wave. This will obviously help, but probably only short-term. For one thing, the great majority of this money has not been used for anything that will help the economy over the long-run. Just like in '02 when the fed dropped interest rates drastically, the market rallied. However, giving easy money to people and the United States as a whole, is a horrible approach when the debt levels are already at historic highs. There are no free lunches! If I gave a person with 100k of debt and an annual income of 20K another 100k that he must spend; he will have some fun for a while and may even feel more wealthy. Yet, when the debt has to be repaid and his job still pays the same, he isn't better off. In fact, he is far worse off! Where we are right now is in the midst of the fun money spending.
I could see this lasting anywhere from a couple more months to maybe a year or more. However, when it does end, it will be ugly with a capital U G L Y. My high end expectation on the DJIA is around 10,000. So I think this rally could have a ways to go. During this time, gold will likely continue to suffer (with a max downside target of $700/oz, it is currently at $870/oz) as people believe the worst is behind us. I expect this to be the last great buying opportunity for it for some time (for silver too). By the end of the market's bounce, most individuals and market professionals will believe the bear market is long gone and start putting all their cash back into play. The overall mood will probably be borderline exuberant again despite that the underlying fundamentals of the economy will have not improved much or at all.
Remember, this is just my best guess. I would put my estimate at maybe 60-70% likelihood. Another scenraio is just a retest of the March lows in the 6500 range on the DJIA (10-20%). The last and best case scenario would be that we already hit the lows and the future is bright (10-20%).
Amendment: I just listened to a great interview talking about economics and the current state of the economy. I would strongly recommend this not just for a learning tool, but also as a must know for anyone concerned about the direction of our government and in particular the fed.
Here is the link (it is the April 11th episode 2nd Hour): http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html
The long awaited bear market rally I thought would come late last year has been in place for over a month now. Could this be the start of a new bull market?...yes. However, the likelihood of that in my opinion is definitely less than 50%. All that has happened is the government has thrown trillions of dollars into the economy and into banks to try to stop the tidal wave. This will obviously help, but probably only short-term. For one thing, the great majority of this money has not been used for anything that will help the economy over the long-run. Just like in '02 when the fed dropped interest rates drastically, the market rallied. However, giving easy money to people and the United States as a whole, is a horrible approach when the debt levels are already at historic highs. There are no free lunches! If I gave a person with 100k of debt and an annual income of 20K another 100k that he must spend; he will have some fun for a while and may even feel more wealthy. Yet, when the debt has to be repaid and his job still pays the same, he isn't better off. In fact, he is far worse off! Where we are right now is in the midst of the fun money spending.
I could see this lasting anywhere from a couple more months to maybe a year or more. However, when it does end, it will be ugly with a capital U G L Y. My high end expectation on the DJIA is around 10,000. So I think this rally could have a ways to go. During this time, gold will likely continue to suffer (with a max downside target of $700/oz, it is currently at $870/oz) as people believe the worst is behind us. I expect this to be the last great buying opportunity for it for some time (for silver too). By the end of the market's bounce, most individuals and market professionals will believe the bear market is long gone and start putting all their cash back into play. The overall mood will probably be borderline exuberant again despite that the underlying fundamentals of the economy will have not improved much or at all.
Remember, this is just my best guess. I would put my estimate at maybe 60-70% likelihood. Another scenraio is just a retest of the March lows in the 6500 range on the DJIA (10-20%). The last and best case scenario would be that we already hit the lows and the future is bright (10-20%).
Amendment: I just listened to a great interview talking about economics and the current state of the economy. I would strongly recommend this not just for a learning tool, but also as a must know for anyone concerned about the direction of our government and in particular the fed.
Here is the link (it is the April 11th episode 2nd Hour): http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html
Friday, April 10, 2009
da Blues!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
A few weeks back, I wrote about the St. Louis Blues and the ridiculous run they've been on. Well, tonight they clinched a playoff birth for the first time since the lockout. This had to be one of the most improbable scenarios the NHL has seen in years. At the midway point of the season, the Blues were 16-22-3 for a mere 35 points. They were anywhere from 8 to 12 points behind the playoff contenders and sat in last place (15th) in the conference. In the last 40 games (they still have 1 left on Sunday), they have gone 24-8-7 for 55 points. This is tops in the league over that time, and they did it without their top 2 defensemen (Brewer and Johnson) and arguably their top offensive player (Kariya). Half the players on the roster are 25 or younger. This video is just one reason the fans love these young guns. I can't wait to watch them in the playoffs starting next week.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
SCOOPilicious!
I just scooped a SCOOP. I won the $30 Stud H/L tourney in Pokerstars SCOOP for just under 10k. I beat out over 3000 people for the title. I ran pretty well, but the competition was so soft it didn't really matter. There were only a handful of decent players I even saw the whole way. However, I am really tired so that's all I got.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
How Geitner, the Fed and the Government continue to try to @#$% us!
The following is a very good explanation of what Geitner's new bank plan will likely do to the American taxpayer:
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