World Cup Pool

Four of us in the house have ponied up some money for a World Cup 2010 pool.  We did a snake style draft for all 32 teams using the following scoring system:

Points in pool play = what your team earns (3 pts for a win, 1 for a tie)
Bonus pts if your team wins its pool = 3 pts, gets 2nd in its pool = 2 pts
Round of 16 and quarter final wins = 4 pts
Semifinal and Finals win = 5 pts

These are the teams with pick # in ( ):

Seth: odds to win 3.2:1
(1) Spain
(8) France
(9) Portugal
(16) Chile
(17) Paraguay
(24) Switzerland
(25) South Korea
(32) North Korea

While Spain may be the best team on paper they may have the toughest draw once the knockout phase begins where they will likely face Brazil or Portugal right off the bat followed by Italy.  If Portugal and Spain face each other in the round of 16 Seth will imediately lose a title contender.  France getting deep is critical for this team unless Spain or Portugal wins it all (which is a strong possibility).  Paraguay is a potential sleeper given their soft pool.  No real bad picks except maybe South Korea (but that one isn't a big deal).

Samenole: odds to win 2.8:1
(2) Brazil
(7) Germany
(10) Serbia
(15) Ivory Coast
(18) Mexico
(23) Slovakia
(26) Australia
(31) New Zealand

Brazil's analysis is similar to Spain's - great team shitty draw.  While they should get out of pool play it isn't a guarantee.  Earning first is critical so they won't likely have to face Spain in the round of 16.  This was a well picked team in general though except for one: Ivory Coast.  This team is solid and may even be a sleeper in most years.  However, this year they are in a pool with Brazil and Portugal, and even if they survive that, they will likely be the 2nd place team in the pool and face Spain in the round of 16.  To win this team needs the middle of its order to step up with 2-3 round of 16 apperances and a surprise quarterfinal appearance because the bottom of his order may get some much needed unexpected points that make the difference.

Chris: odds to win 2:1
(3) England
(6) Argentina
(11) USA
(14) Nigeria
(19) Uruguay
(22) Denmark
(27) Slovenia
(30) Honduras

Obviously I have to think my own team is the best.  Drafting third, I obviously could not get one of the two big guns, but that may be a good thing because I was able to take teams that have much easier draws to the semifinals.  The top 5 teams in FIFA's rankings are all in groups E-H meaning anyone in the top half of the draw does not have to face these teams until the semifinals.  With that in mind, I think I need to get 3 teams into the quarters to have a chance because it is less likely I will have the overall champion like Seth or Samenole or Tom.  I'm almost certain I will have two quarterfinalists - Argentina and one of my group C teams (England/USA/Slovenia-unlikely).  Thus, Nigeria or Uruguay could be critical for me.  If I do get a team into the finals, my chances skyrocket.

Tom: odds to win 4:1
(4) Italy
(5) Netherlands
(12) Greece
(13) Cameroon
(20) South Africa
(21) Ghana
(28) Algeria
(29) Japan

Tom's team has the most boom or bust potential.  I'm just leaning towards bust.  Italy and Netherlands have easy rides to the quarterfinals - unless they face each other in the round of 16.  However, then they will face likely Brazil, Portugal, or Spain.  A critcal win here by either team will enhance his chances mightily.  I don't know much about Greece or Cameroon, but the bookmakers seem to really hate these two teams despite their fairly high FIFA ranking.  Therefore, I don't like them either.  Home teams usually play out of their minds.  For South Africa that would be getting 1 win.  That makes this a pick a stretch.  The key to Tom's picking seemed to be to get as many African teams as possible.  This may be a great strategy because they all should be pumped up to play on their home continent (also usually a bonus).  However most of these teams are inferior to the Euro and South American teams. So, even with the added boost of adrenalin their results might not be good enough.  As Tom said after his first couple picks, he wanted teams he can root for.  He got them, but just like in a march madness contest, this strategy usually fails miserably...yet it is one I secretly hope works out.