Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Poker Television Debut (Sort Of)
Tonight, I should be on ESPN's coverage of the WSOP Main Event. This will be my first television coverage ever (if you don't count me being in the background of Paul Wasicka's deep runs :) doing my best rail bird). I'm excited yet a little worried about the hand(s) they might show. Nonetheless it will be cool to see.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
WCOOP Champ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I just took down the WCOOP NLO8 $215 tourney on pokerstars for 42K+. WOWOWOWOW did I need this!!!!!! Interestingly, I got HU with benba (Ben Lamb) for the bracelet. Congrats to him on his 2nd place finish (30K+). I pretty much dominated the whole final table (which basically meant I ran well because the structure weas fast). I don't know what else to say, but thank GOD!
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
A couple market updates....
The first is on my gold/silver recommendations done last year in October and November. Now one would think with the market's huge rally that maybe it would have been better to be in "regular" stocks.
Here is the link to the original article:
http://asliceofpi-cviox.blogspot.com/2009/02/gold-update_18.html
and here is the updated returns using the 11/6/8 date (which is more favorable for the S&P 500):
S&P 500 16.18%
Gold 37.99%
Silver 72.90%
GDX 119.24% (mining stock etf)
AUY 144.33%
SLW 255.50%
So if you put an equal amount into each of my five recommended holdings your return would have averaged merely 126%. Incidently, gold is just under alltime highs as I write this. The S&P 500 is still nearly 50% under it's alltime highs. The fundamentals for gold and silver remain strong while the fundamentals for the market as a whole are tenuous at best.
This leads to the second update:
http://asliceofpi-cviox.blogspot.com/2008/11/precipice.html
In this one I preditcted a pattern for the Dow Jones. So far the pattern has been almost perfect. I will say my timing was off by a couple months (I thought the bottom would be in December not March, and I thought the rally would be sharper and end in about 4 months). The Dow is just below my predicted top of between 10000 and 10500. I still hope I am wrong about all of this. However, I really believe this drop will happen at some point unless the fed keeps printing money like it's going out of style.
Right now the biggest threat for a massive blowup "lies" in the banks. As of now most banks have tremendous amounts of bad debt sitting on their balance sheets at false levels. The fed and the accounting board are allowing the banks to put these "assets" on their books at full value. Who out there really believes all these Alt A laons, sub prime loans, ARMs, etc will be fully recovered. In fact, recently a major bank that was forced to be taken over had their assets wrote off at 37% (a mere 63% below where our government was allowing them to show)!!!!! The reason our government is doing this: if the banks are forced to mark these assets to market (like has always been the case), most would be bankrupt. This was why the gov bailed them out, and this is why we are likely screwed. Despite the huge bailout, only a small part of the huge canyon was filled.
A new wave of mortgage blowups are expected to hit in 2010 and 2011 on the same scale that has happen the past 2 years due to ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages) resetting. ARMs were the huge fad towards the end of the housing boom as a way to get people that had no business getting homes, or second homes, or investment homes into the market. Banks quoted teaser rates as low as 1% for 5 yrs. They also signed these people up with no financial records because they got paid for each loan finished. Volume equaled huge profits. Screw the long-term. Well the long-term is almost here, and all these people that signed up are in deep shit. Already the default rates on these loans are high and the intereset rate reset hasn't even occurred on most. The estimated default rate on these loans are over 50%!!!! I haven't even gotten into commercial loans which typically trail consumer mortgages. These size of this market isn't as large as consumer but it is expected to be extremelky weak also.
Can this be fixed? It's a catch 22. If the government steps aside as they should in a true capitalistic economy, the financial sector (and as a result the entire economy) will be %^#^**. However, we will recover fairly quickly as the strong players will come out stronger, and the weak will be gone. If the government keeps trying to prop up every weak player, then our country's debt will continue to skyrocket, and the dollar will continue to get weaker.... and our economy will still be %^*%&$ (just in a different fashion with huge inflation and impossible debt loads). The strong players will get punished because the incentive to do things the right way will be gone. The idiot's that took on too much risk or flat out cheated will be bailed out at the expense of those that went about things the right way. This would sacrifice our country's future for the present. Currently, our government is choosing the latter option. It's pretty sad......
I'm not sure when or what may be the cause that starts the downturn, but I truly believe it will happen (pending the printing press). It could be sudden or just a rolling over of the market that slowly picks up steam. Please tread carefully everyone, and do not get caught up in the propaganda getting spewed out of Washington or Wall St.
Here is the link to the original article:
http://asliceofpi-cviox.blogspot.com/2009/02/gold-update_18.html
and here is the updated returns using the 11/6/8 date (which is more favorable for the S&P 500):
S&P 500 16.18%
Gold 37.99%
Silver 72.90%
GDX 119.24% (mining stock etf)
AUY 144.33%
SLW 255.50%
So if you put an equal amount into each of my five recommended holdings your return would have averaged merely 126%. Incidently, gold is just under alltime highs as I write this. The S&P 500 is still nearly 50% under it's alltime highs. The fundamentals for gold and silver remain strong while the fundamentals for the market as a whole are tenuous at best.
This leads to the second update:
http://asliceofpi-cviox.blogspot.com/2008/11/precipice.html
In this one I preditcted a pattern for the Dow Jones. So far the pattern has been almost perfect. I will say my timing was off by a couple months (I thought the bottom would be in December not March, and I thought the rally would be sharper and end in about 4 months). The Dow is just below my predicted top of between 10000 and 10500. I still hope I am wrong about all of this. However, I really believe this drop will happen at some point unless the fed keeps printing money like it's going out of style.
Right now the biggest threat for a massive blowup "lies" in the banks. As of now most banks have tremendous amounts of bad debt sitting on their balance sheets at false levels. The fed and the accounting board are allowing the banks to put these "assets" on their books at full value. Who out there really believes all these Alt A laons, sub prime loans, ARMs, etc will be fully recovered. In fact, recently a major bank that was forced to be taken over had their assets wrote off at 37% (a mere 63% below where our government was allowing them to show)!!!!! The reason our government is doing this: if the banks are forced to mark these assets to market (like has always been the case), most would be bankrupt. This was why the gov bailed them out, and this is why we are likely screwed. Despite the huge bailout, only a small part of the huge canyon was filled.
A new wave of mortgage blowups are expected to hit in 2010 and 2011 on the same scale that has happen the past 2 years due to ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages) resetting. ARMs were the huge fad towards the end of the housing boom as a way to get people that had no business getting homes, or second homes, or investment homes into the market. Banks quoted teaser rates as low as 1% for 5 yrs. They also signed these people up with no financial records because they got paid for each loan finished. Volume equaled huge profits. Screw the long-term. Well the long-term is almost here, and all these people that signed up are in deep shit. Already the default rates on these loans are high and the intereset rate reset hasn't even occurred on most. The estimated default rate on these loans are over 50%!!!! I haven't even gotten into commercial loans which typically trail consumer mortgages. These size of this market isn't as large as consumer but it is expected to be extremelky weak also.
Can this be fixed? It's a catch 22. If the government steps aside as they should in a true capitalistic economy, the financial sector (and as a result the entire economy) will be %^#^**. However, we will recover fairly quickly as the strong players will come out stronger, and the weak will be gone. If the government keeps trying to prop up every weak player, then our country's debt will continue to skyrocket, and the dollar will continue to get weaker.... and our economy will still be %^*%&$ (just in a different fashion with huge inflation and impossible debt loads). The strong players will get punished because the incentive to do things the right way will be gone. The idiot's that took on too much risk or flat out cheated will be bailed out at the expense of those that went about things the right way. This would sacrifice our country's future for the present. Currently, our government is choosing the latter option. It's pretty sad......
I'm not sure when or what may be the cause that starts the downturn, but I truly believe it will happen (pending the printing press). It could be sudden or just a rolling over of the market that slowly picks up steam. Please tread carefully everyone, and do not get caught up in the propaganda getting spewed out of Washington or Wall St.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Puke
Example of why I may be gray within a week or two:
This is my bustout hand from the $300 PLO w/ RB's and is extremely gross. I knew Mercier would make a move with anything here if I just made a weak looking call. However, when you can hit your 10%'s I guess I would make crazy moves too.
PokerStars Game #32886089940: Tournament #200909031, $300+$20 USD Omaha Pot Limit - Level IX (80/160) - 2009/09/15 18:07:04 ET
Table '200909031 32' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: JasonMercier (31620 in chips)
Seat 2: veg777 (3945 in chips)
Seat 3: Skint Paddy (32167 in chips)
Seat 4: grindnitout (3944 in chips)
Seat 5: PiMaster (15226 in chips)
Seat 6: MUSTAFABET (23548 in chips)
Skint Paddy: posts small blind 80
grindnitout: posts big blind 160
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PiMaster [Jh 2c 2h Jd]
PiMaster: calls 160
MUSTAFABET: folds
JasonMercier: calls 160
veg777: folds
Skint Paddy: calls 80
grindnitout: raises 640 to 800
PiMaster: calls 640
JasonMercier: calls 640
Skint Paddy: folds
*** FLOP *** [2s 8d Tc]
grindnitout: bets 2560
PiMaster: calls 2560
JasonMercier: raises 10240 to 12800
grindnitout: calls 584 and is all-in
PiMaster: raises 1626 to 14426 and is all-in
JasonMercier: calls 1626
*** TURN *** [2s 8d Tc] [Jc]
*** RIVER *** [2s 8d Tc Jc] [9c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PiMaster: shows [Jh 2c 2h Jd] (three of a kind, Jacks)
JasonMercier: shows [7c Td Ks Qc] (a flush, Queen high)
JasonMercier collected 22564 from side pot
grindnitout: shows [3s Ah 2d Ad] (a pair of Aces)
JasonMercier collected 11992 from main pot
cognex is connected
This is my bustout hand from the $300 PLO w/ RB's and is extremely gross. I knew Mercier would make a move with anything here if I just made a weak looking call. However, when you can hit your 10%'s I guess I would make crazy moves too.
PokerStars Game #32886089940: Tournament #200909031, $300+$20 USD Omaha Pot Limit - Level IX (80/160) - 2009/09/15 18:07:04 ET
Table '200909031 32' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: JasonMercier (31620 in chips)
Seat 2: veg777 (3945 in chips)
Seat 3: Skint Paddy (32167 in chips)
Seat 4: grindnitout (3944 in chips)
Seat 5: PiMaster (15226 in chips)
Seat 6: MUSTAFABET (23548 in chips)
Skint Paddy: posts small blind 80
grindnitout: posts big blind 160
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PiMaster [Jh 2c 2h Jd]
PiMaster: calls 160
MUSTAFABET: folds
JasonMercier: calls 160
veg777: folds
Skint Paddy: calls 80
grindnitout: raises 640 to 800
PiMaster: calls 640
JasonMercier: calls 640
Skint Paddy: folds
*** FLOP *** [2s 8d Tc]
grindnitout: bets 2560
PiMaster: calls 2560
JasonMercier: raises 10240 to 12800
grindnitout: calls 584 and is all-in
PiMaster: raises 1626 to 14426 and is all-in
JasonMercier: calls 1626
*** TURN *** [2s 8d Tc] [Jc]
*** RIVER *** [2s 8d Tc Jc] [9c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PiMaster: shows [Jh 2c 2h Jd] (three of a kind, Jacks)
JasonMercier: shows [7c Td Ks Qc] (a flush, Queen high)
JasonMercier collected 22564 from side pot
grindnitout: shows [3s Ah 2d Ad] (a pair of Aces)
JasonMercier collected 11992 from main pot
cognex is connected
Monday, September 14, 2009
For those who care....
I have gone the whole last week without a cash in the WCOOP. I am now 2 -18 and have skipped numerous events due to my frustration. The frustration has come about because I have now bubbled 5 events (2 were basically on the exact bubble while 3 others were very close). In addition, I have messed up a couple tournaments by botching a critical hand. It gets really old playing for six hours straight only to finish just outside the money. Here's hoping something changes in the next week because there are some biggies coming up. Tomorrow's Stud H/L event may be the launching point. I've always felt Stud H/L is my strongest online tourney game.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
How to Snow in 2 to 7.....
The hand history isn't pasting here for some reason so I'll write it out.
I am dealt 732xx and raise from the cutoff. The big blind calls. We both draw 2, and I end up w/ 77332. He checks calls my bet. At this point he draws 2 so I decide to stay pat. He check calls another bet from me and draws 1. Once again he checks and I bet. Fold fold fold fold. Nope he calls, and ...... the pot gets pushed .... to me! ?????
He immediately writes oops, and says he thought there was a draw left. Still I had 2 pair!!!!!! He had 87654 lol. So now I get caught snowing, and I won the hand. Best case scenario because I had just sat down at the table and I rarely ever do that. Now guys will be calling me down with all sorts of stuff.
I am dealt 732xx and raise from the cutoff. The big blind calls. We both draw 2, and I end up w/ 77332. He checks calls my bet. At this point he draws 2 so I decide to stay pat. He check calls another bet from me and draws 1. Once again he checks and I bet. Fold fold fold fold. Nope he calls, and ...... the pot gets pushed .... to me! ?????
He immediately writes oops, and says he thought there was a draw left. Still I had 2 pair!!!!!! He had 87654 lol. So now I get caught snowing, and I won the hand. Best case scenario because I had just sat down at the table and I rarely ever do that. Now guys will be calling me down with all sorts of stuff.
Monday, September 7, 2009
WCOOP Update
Through the first weekend I have played 8 of the 11 tournaments, and cashed in 2: $215 PL 5-Card Draw and $215 NL Holdem. Neither cash was huge and I am about even for the series. I was especially proud of the NL tourney. It was one of my finer performances. I had a stack under 25 bbs for 2 to 3 hours mid way through the tournament highlighted by a hand where I raised preflop and then pulled off a double barrel bluf on the river. The kicker: I started the hand with 12bbs and had 97h in 2nd pos on a KJT 5 3 board. I finished 124th out of more than 11,000 players.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
WCOOP Begins Today
My 2nd favorite tournament series of the year begins today (behind only the WSOP). The phenomenal structures and wide range of events are the best seen anywhere online. I am hoping to add a WCOOP bracelet to the SCOOP title (and watch) I won this past spring. I currently rank 14th all-time in cashes in the WCOOP, but I have yet to really make a good score. I am hoping this changes this year. I expect to play somewhere from 35-40 of the 45 events.
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