A Series of Unfortunate Events

0-2

I was very happy with the way yesterday's $1K NLH was going until the last hour of the night. I had grinded a middle to below average stack for a good 4 hours before tripling up over the course of one round to over 30k (the average at the money). I was out about an hour later, after nothing went my way. I busted with 430ish of the 3000 players still left. There are way too many interesting hands to post (basically b/c I'm not really in the mood to take the time :) ).

I also busted in the $1500 O8 on Friday in the middle of the pack. I thought I played pretty well in it, but there is only so much you can do in a limit tourney if the cards aren't falling your way. I grinded it as best as I could, but it wasn't to be.

I get back in action on Monday in the $1500 PLO.

2009 Dubaya Ess Oh Pee

Make or Break, Do or Die, Shit or Get Off the Pot - whatever phrase you want to use to describe a critical time in one's life or career. Over the course of the last 20 months or so my income from poker has dwindled mightily. I'm not sure if this is due to a long stretch of running bad or if I have some leaks I just can't figure out. This is the dilemma almost all poker players face when not making money for any extended period of time, and it is extremely tough emotionally/mentally.

Now I haven't lost money over that time, but I do have a family that I need to support. So I can't just break even forever. My outlay for the series is large enough that a horrible month and a half could make me reconsider my current direction in life. At the same time, the WSOP provides the opportunity to set my family up for years. Obviously the most likely scenario is somewhere in between (win or lose something that isn't too life changing).

As I arrive in Las Vegas this Thursday, my head is not where I want it pokerwise due to my aforementioned results. I have been quick to get down on myself or when bad beats occur. I am working hard to change this, but I admit I haven't been very successful. Everytime I think I have things going in the right direction again, a couple of bad weeks put me right back where I was. It has literally been months on end of 1 or 2 steps forward 1 or 2 steps back. I know one big score can change this. However, I would rather have my emotional outlook fixed internally rather than from an external source. For obvious reasons, this will serve me much better in the long run.

I'm staying with a good group of people (5 of us) in a house for the entire time. Julie and the kids will be coming out for 2 weeks about halfway through the series. My brother will be out for the main event. I expect the support and knowledge of my friends out there to be a big boost. I expect our house to do well. I expect myself to have a good series including a big score. I expect this to be the turn around I have been looking for.

Financial Update

Over the course of last week, I moved most of my clients assets around. For the last 6 months, I have been trying to prepare for this. As some of you have known, I have been waiting for this monstrous rally since October. While it occurred a couple months later than I thought, it nonetheless has been fast and strikingly strong (roughly 35-40% in just over 2 months). Furthermore, I thought that once this rally peetered out, we could find ourselves in the midst of another major leg down. Whether this rally is done or not is yet to be seen, but we are very close to where I thought we would get to (the 200 day moving averages or between 9000-10000 on the Dow Jones). As a result, I have started to get very nervous. I am officially in my uber-conservative portfolio preparing for a potential major downswing. I believe the current risk/reward in the markets is horrible (meaning the upside potential from here is dwarfed by the downside).

Despite my feelings, I have told my clients we could continue to be in an up market maybe even two more years simply due to the massive stimulus the government has supplied. However because I feel this stimulus is nothing more than a short-term jolt (with probably zero potential for long-term GDP growth), once the money runs dry we will be in an even worse position than before. Higher debt levels and higher interest rates will likely be the case. At the point this occurs and the market rolls over, watch out! It could be in the next few weeks or a couple years out. I truly feel the only way we will not go far lower from here in the markets is if the fed allows inflation to run rampant. This will help stocks go up (because earnings will be higher due to the cheapening dollar), but with inflation super high everyone's purchasing power will likely drop substantialy. While the markets will look different under the two scenarios, the end result will be relatively the same. Most people will be far worse off at the end.

My odds:

We don't drop significantly lower from here: 20%
We retest the March lows (mid 6000s on the Dow) within the next 2 years, but they hold: 35%
We break down through the March lows within the next couple years: 45%

The Streak is Over!!!!

No we aren't talking about Moon's days as a Single Man, or J's days in a row not waking up before noon. We are talking about my cashless streak in the FTOPS. In an embarrassing admission, I had failed to cash in 36 straight FTOPS events (0 for my last 4 back in November, 0-23 this February, and 0-9 until today in this version). The blind hog found an acorn!!!!!

FTOPS (LOL)!

Usually I write about my goals for a series such as this, but after the last FTOPS where I shot a blistering 0-24, I have decided to just see what happens. However, to increase my chances of an ever elusive cash I will also be playing most of the mini-FTOPS as well. I won't be playing every event due to some scheduling conflicts, but most will be played. To say I could use a bankroll jump going into the WSOP is an understatement. I was hoping to be up 50k going into the WSOP, and while I am up on the year, I have a ways to go to get to that goal.