If/when the market drops below current levels many technicians believe we could test last year's lows. We have tested current levels at least 3 times and rebounded every time, but each rebound has been weaker and weaker. As I've said in the past our "economic recovery" was based solely on governments around the world throwing money into the pot and hoping it works somehow. Now the money is spent, debt levels have risen to dangerous levels, and we are worse off as a result. Naturally, a retest is not a sure thing, but each day that passes makes it look more and more likely.
We need to shrink the government and get our fiscal house in order. This is going to be a painful process because so many people are sucking on the government's tit. However, look at virtually every country in history, and you will see that the larger a government gets relative to the private sector, the worse the country does economically. This is not my opinion, do your own research. Our government is getting larger by leaps and bounds. We need to return America to the people, and return to the principles this great country was founded on.
Note: Two hours after I wrote this the market dropped 1% in the last half hour of trading to go below the support levels.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Monday, June 21, 2010
Update from Vegas
I've been on a bit of a cold streak since my early four cashes. I did have two near cashes in the $2500 PLO and the $1500 HORSE. Surprisingly, I am still very focused and energized, but I am looking forward to seeing my family on the 7th of July. I still have a handful of events left including the big daddy of them all. My next event is tomorrow - $1500 PLO8. This event is one of the ones I've been looking forward to for a while.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
World Cup Pool
Four of us in the house have ponied up some money for a World Cup 2010 pool. We did a snake style draft for all 32 teams using the following scoring system:
Points in pool play = what your team earns (3 pts for a win, 1 for a tie)
Bonus pts if your team wins its pool = 3 pts, gets 2nd in its pool = 2 pts
Round of 16 and quarter final wins = 4 pts
Semifinal and Finals win = 5 pts
These are the teams with pick # in ( ):
Seth: odds to win 3.2:1
(1) Spain
(8) France
(9) Portugal
(16) Chile
(17) Paraguay
(24) Switzerland
(25) South Korea
(32) North Korea
While Spain may be the best team on paper they may have the toughest draw once the knockout phase begins where they will likely face Brazil or Portugal right off the bat followed by Italy. If Portugal and Spain face each other in the round of 16 Seth will imediately lose a title contender. France getting deep is critical for this team unless Spain or Portugal wins it all (which is a strong possibility). Paraguay is a potential sleeper given their soft pool. No real bad picks except maybe South Korea (but that one isn't a big deal).
Samenole: odds to win 2.8:1
(2) Brazil
(7) Germany
(10) Serbia
(15) Ivory Coast
(18) Mexico
(23) Slovakia
(26) Australia
(31) New Zealand
Brazil's analysis is similar to Spain's - great team shitty draw. While they should get out of pool play it isn't a guarantee. Earning first is critical so they won't likely have to face Spain in the round of 16. This was a well picked team in general though except for one: Ivory Coast. This team is solid and may even be a sleeper in most years. However, this year they are in a pool with Brazil and Portugal, and even if they survive that, they will likely be the 2nd place team in the pool and face Spain in the round of 16. To win this team needs the middle of its order to step up with 2-3 round of 16 apperances and a surprise quarterfinal appearance because the bottom of his order may get some much needed unexpected points that make the difference.
Chris: odds to win 2:1
(3) England
(6) Argentina
(11) USA
(14) Nigeria
(19) Uruguay
(22) Denmark
(27) Slovenia
(30) Honduras
Obviously I have to think my own team is the best. Drafting third, I obviously could not get one of the two big guns, but that may be a good thing because I was able to take teams that have much easier draws to the semifinals. The top 5 teams in FIFA's rankings are all in groups E-H meaning anyone in the top half of the draw does not have to face these teams until the semifinals. With that in mind, I think I need to get 3 teams into the quarters to have a chance because it is less likely I will have the overall champion like Seth or Samenole or Tom. I'm almost certain I will have two quarterfinalists - Argentina and one of my group C teams (England/USA/Slovenia-unlikely). Thus, Nigeria or Uruguay could be critical for me. If I do get a team into the finals, my chances skyrocket.
Tom: odds to win 4:1
(4) Italy
(5) Netherlands
(12) Greece
(13) Cameroon
(20) South Africa
(21) Ghana
(28) Algeria
(29) Japan
Tom's team has the most boom or bust potential. I'm just leaning towards bust. Italy and Netherlands have easy rides to the quarterfinals - unless they face each other in the round of 16. However, then they will face likely Brazil, Portugal, or Spain. A critcal win here by either team will enhance his chances mightily. I don't know much about Greece or Cameroon, but the bookmakers seem to really hate these two teams despite their fairly high FIFA ranking. Therefore, I don't like them either. Home teams usually play out of their minds. For South Africa that would be getting 1 win. That makes this a pick a stretch. The key to Tom's picking seemed to be to get as many African teams as possible. This may be a great strategy because they all should be pumped up to play on their home continent (also usually a bonus). However most of these teams are inferior to the Euro and South American teams. So, even with the added boost of adrenalin their results might not be good enough. As Tom said after his first couple picks, he wanted teams he can root for. He got them, but just like in a march madness contest, this strategy usually fails miserably...yet it is one I secretly hope works out.
Points in pool play = what your team earns (3 pts for a win, 1 for a tie)
Bonus pts if your team wins its pool = 3 pts, gets 2nd in its pool = 2 pts
Round of 16 and quarter final wins = 4 pts
Semifinal and Finals win = 5 pts
These are the teams with pick # in ( ):
Seth: odds to win 3.2:1
(1) Spain
(8) France
(9) Portugal
(16) Chile
(17) Paraguay
(24) Switzerland
(25) South Korea
(32) North Korea
While Spain may be the best team on paper they may have the toughest draw once the knockout phase begins where they will likely face Brazil or Portugal right off the bat followed by Italy. If Portugal and Spain face each other in the round of 16 Seth will imediately lose a title contender. France getting deep is critical for this team unless Spain or Portugal wins it all (which is a strong possibility). Paraguay is a potential sleeper given their soft pool. No real bad picks except maybe South Korea (but that one isn't a big deal).
Samenole: odds to win 2.8:1
(2) Brazil
(7) Germany
(10) Serbia
(15) Ivory Coast
(18) Mexico
(23) Slovakia
(26) Australia
(31) New Zealand
Brazil's analysis is similar to Spain's - great team shitty draw. While they should get out of pool play it isn't a guarantee. Earning first is critical so they won't likely have to face Spain in the round of 16. This was a well picked team in general though except for one: Ivory Coast. This team is solid and may even be a sleeper in most years. However, this year they are in a pool with Brazil and Portugal, and even if they survive that, they will likely be the 2nd place team in the pool and face Spain in the round of 16. To win this team needs the middle of its order to step up with 2-3 round of 16 apperances and a surprise quarterfinal appearance because the bottom of his order may get some much needed unexpected points that make the difference.
Chris: odds to win 2:1
(3) England
(6) Argentina
(11) USA
(14) Nigeria
(19) Uruguay
(22) Denmark
(27) Slovenia
(30) Honduras
Obviously I have to think my own team is the best. Drafting third, I obviously could not get one of the two big guns, but that may be a good thing because I was able to take teams that have much easier draws to the semifinals. The top 5 teams in FIFA's rankings are all in groups E-H meaning anyone in the top half of the draw does not have to face these teams until the semifinals. With that in mind, I think I need to get 3 teams into the quarters to have a chance because it is less likely I will have the overall champion like Seth or Samenole or Tom. I'm almost certain I will have two quarterfinalists - Argentina and one of my group C teams (England/USA/Slovenia-unlikely). Thus, Nigeria or Uruguay could be critical for me. If I do get a team into the finals, my chances skyrocket.
Tom: odds to win 4:1
(4) Italy
(5) Netherlands
(12) Greece
(13) Cameroon
(20) South Africa
(21) Ghana
(28) Algeria
(29) Japan
Tom's team has the most boom or bust potential. I'm just leaning towards bust. Italy and Netherlands have easy rides to the quarterfinals - unless they face each other in the round of 16. However, then they will face likely Brazil, Portugal, or Spain. A critcal win here by either team will enhance his chances mightily. I don't know much about Greece or Cameroon, but the bookmakers seem to really hate these two teams despite their fairly high FIFA ranking. Therefore, I don't like them either. Home teams usually play out of their minds. For South Africa that would be getting 1 win. That makes this a pick a stretch. The key to Tom's picking seemed to be to get as many African teams as possible. This may be a great strategy because they all should be pumped up to play on their home continent (also usually a bonus). However most of these teams are inferior to the Euro and South American teams. So, even with the added boost of adrenalin their results might not be good enough. As Tom said after his first couple picks, he wanted teams he can root for. He got them, but just like in a march madness contest, this strategy usually fails miserably...yet it is one I secretly hope works out.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Update after 7 events:
I have now played seven events out here after busting 38th out of 1663 players in the $1500 6-max NLH for another smallish score. This follows my 18th place finish out of 250 in the 2-7 NL Single Draw event. I now have 3 cashes. I'm running pretty well, and I'm playing pretty well (although I am still making some critical mistakes that need to be cut out). I have roughly 1/2 of my outlay for the trip covered now. I JUST NEED TO FINISH OFF ONE OF THESE THINGS!
I get my first day off tomorrow since I arrived in Vegas, which simply means I will be working on my other job. Then it is time for the $1500 PLO on Thursday.
I get my first day off tomorrow since I arrived in Vegas, which simply means I will be working on my other job. Then it is time for the $1500 PLO on Thursday.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
WSOP Update
I got out here last Friday to some bad news which I will spare you the details. I played event #3 $1000 NLH on Saturday and busted a few levels in with really no chance. On Sunday, I decided at the last minute to play event #4 $1500 Omaha H/L (good decision). I ended up making it to the final day, and ultimately, I finished in 14th place for a decent payday. I grinded a short stack for the better part of day 2 and all of day 3. So I was satisfied with my finish. I have loftier goals obviously, and this just wet my appetite for bigger things.
On a side note: Matt Smith cashed decent in the $1000 NLH and is in day 2 of the $2500 2-7 Triple Draw event. Tom Fuller cashed in the $1500 NLH, and Toph Moore is onto his 2nd table (and in the money) of the $5000 NLH Shootout. Overall our group is off to a great start. I told Tom a few days ago despite the bad start to the summer campaign (and maybe because of it), I have a real good feeling big things are ahead.
On a side note: Matt Smith cashed decent in the $1000 NLH and is in day 2 of the $2500 2-7 Triple Draw event. Tom Fuller cashed in the $1500 NLH, and Toph Moore is onto his 2nd table (and in the money) of the $5000 NLH Shootout. Overall our group is off to a great start. I told Tom a few days ago despite the bad start to the summer campaign (and maybe because of it), I have a real good feeling big things are ahead.
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