Gold/Silver Update

I first mentioned gold on here on October 24. I then outright pleaded for people to get some in their investment portfolios on November 6th. Here is what has happened since then in the S&P 500 and the five gold/silver holding I have in many portfolios:

_______10/24__11/6__Today_____Returns

S&P 500 870.4__ 908.6_ 791.30__ -9.09% -12.91%

Gold____ 737___ 737___ 975____ 32.29% 32.29%

Silver___ 9.23__ 10.00_ 14.18___ 53.63% 41.80%

GDX___ 17.80__ 21.93_ 36.66 ___105.96% 67.17%

AUY___ 4.03___ 4.67__ 9.40___ 133.25% 101.29%

SLW ___3.44___ 3.73__ 7.33____ 113.08% 96.52%

Who knows what will happen tomorrow. Maybe all of these will plummet, but I will say I still hold all of these. I don't plan on selling them for the foreseeable future due to the governments continued efforts to throw money at anything they see as troubled. While gold, silver and their stocks may have a pullback due to the incredible runs they've had recently, I fully believe they all have much higher to go. I hope everyone took my recommendation, but if you still have yet to get into them, the best way to do so at this point is probably to average in.

NCAA Bball

I've been thinking over the past couple days what the top 5 programs are historically in NCAA hoops. You can use whatever criteria you think are most important. However, this isn't a current list, but a historical list. My top five are:

1) Kansas
2) UCLA
3) North Carolina
4) Indiana
5) Kentucky

Ironically, I don't like any of these teams. There is a good chance I missed a team because I didn't look anything up. I just tried to think through the various conferences. Let me know what you think.

Hall of Shame

Play while you read this post (2008 House of Pain people will understand)

What do the following all have in common (this should be easy for any halfway decent sports trivia buff):

Mexico 9 (FIFA World CUP)
Washington Capitols/San Jose Sharks 17 (NHL)
Cleveland Indians 24 (MLB)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 (NFL)
Anthony Young 27 (MLB - P)
PiMaster 25 (FTOPS)

The answer, of course, is they all are the longest losing streaks in their respective sports (ties not included). Yes, I have gone an incredible 25 straight FTOPS events without a cash. Four occurred last series, and the first twenty-one events of this series. To be honest, I haven't even gotten close to a cash. Given my historical cash rate of about 20%, this has approximately a 0.38% (.8^25) chance of occurring during any 25 tourneys (or about 1 in 265). So while it is very improbable, it will occur on rare occasion. I have about the same likelihood of cashing 11 times (0.40%) during any 25 events (I won't explain that math for you - it's a little more detailed).

The good news (I guess) is that it is unlikely to occur again in my lifetime for the FTOPS. However, it will likely happen again through just regular tournament play online. Interestingly, if your cash rate is around 15% (still decent), this has a 1.72% chance of happening (merely 1 in 58). This shows how streaky poker can be.

The last time I had a series go this poorly to start was the 2007 WSOP. I bricked out on the first 16 events that year, but I bailed myself out in the Main Event to only end the series down a tad. It would be a nice de ja vu if it could happen again. I have three events left I plan on playing - PLO w/ Rbs, NLH Bounty, and the Main Event.

Detroit Lions or House of Pain?

---Guest Writer------

Tom Fuller recently wrote a blog on 2010 Super Bowl Odds. The Detroit Lions are getting 100/1 to win the Super Bowl next year. The Lions turned in a terrible season in 09 and it doesn't look too promising in the future.

On a similar note, House of Pain is now 1/39 in cashes in the FTOPs. I have no clue where the team standsin the Pocket 5s contest, being that this is Matt Viox writing this blog, but I would give the House of Pain a slight edge over the Detroit Lions. I more importantly hope this team can just finish strong with their heads high as this has been an embarrassment to all friends and family. With Ben Lamb having the only cash for the squad, I'm sure he is looking to jump ship after his free agency is up in March. I don't know how much other teams will be looking at him, with the underperforming season he is currently having, but Pi and J will have a much tougher time finding someone to join them next FTOPS. The market for players is already competitive, and considering Pi's social skills and J's sleeping habits, the House of Pain faces a huge hurdle. It is necessary that this team finish with at least 2 final tables out of the remaining tournaments in order to attract players in the future. Yes, this team is in shambles, but I think they can do it. I bet on House of Pain.

Now Exactly How I Imagined It

FTOPS Summary:

Me 0-10
J 0-10
Ben 1-10

Now we are not out of it yet because there are still 15 events left. However, we are definitely behind the 8-ball. We sit in 7th place. I will say right now, things could not have gone worse, and I expect a big week. Will it be enough? I'm not sure. Check back and see.

Update through 3 Events

The good news - we are in first place in total points. The bad news - we really only have two scores that are any good. In reality, we are more likely in about 4th place when you look at the top 3 scores. We have to use 24 scores and their are 25 events. So essentially 1 score on average per event is used. The reason we are leading is our bad scores (scores that eventually won't be used once enough scores are in) are better than the other teams, but they are pointless in the whole scheme of things.

I have yet to cash. I haven't really been close, nor has J. However, Ben has had one deep run and another decent run. He has our two scores that are good so far.

By the way, here are the other 10 teams:

1) mig.com, apestyles, peachymer
2) jse81, TheFatFish, The_D__RY
3) NEONPILS99, captinbiskut, shipitobv
4) bigdogpckt5s, imabigkidnow, dipthrong
5) ckingusc, ScoopandStack, Thay3r
6) titantom32, UFMan2, mjr2369
7) govshark2, gimmeda1time, chicagocards1
8) JCarver, Moorman1, GetPWN3d
9) GeoffRas22, tedsfishfry, Bussa Bus
10) rusostreet, sampson724, truesylose

The first 2 teams are the ones I think are the biggest competition.

FTOPS XI

Once again I have gotten in the Pocket 5's team event. This time my teammates are Jason Dewitt and Ben Lamb (TheMasterJ33 and benba). It looks like it will have around 12-15 teams I think. I would lay our odds at about 4 to 1 to win even though we are facing some perceived stiff competition. They will be paying 2 spots (unless we reach 20 teams), and I would think our chances of "cashing" are 33%. Despite the big names in the contest, a handful of teams will not play enough events (this always happens and unless they go off, they have no real shot), and another handful are just NLH specialists (this group has a small edge in the NLH events, but a huge disadvantage in the other games). You can follow the contest here:

http://ftops.pocketfives.com/ I will also likely provide updates every day or two.

My tentative schedule will include every event but the 5K event (unless I get a big score or satellite in). This will be 24 events and I'd like 5 cashes minimum. A final table is always one of my goals, and a win would be the icing on the cake to continue the solid start I've had in 2009.

A Good Start

Yesterday capped off my a very good month in poker when I placed 3rd in a $200 PLO tourney on Full Tilt for $5200. I really should have won this thing considering I had over 70% of the chips in play with 3 of us left, and the other two guys were fairly bad. However, PLO is still PLO and when you miss two wraps and get AA cracked twice a good thing can turn sour quickly. In the 50 MTT's I played during the month I had 4 second tables and 3 final tables (placing 1st, 3rd and 6th).

Cash games also went well for me. I have been focusing almost solely on PLO. Even though I am playing fairly low limits (2/4 to 5/10), I have been consistently making about 20 big bets an hour/table. I don't know how long this will continue, but I feel like the games are fairly easy and am completely in a comfort zone right now.

January of '09 was my 7th best month ever. More significantly though, it was my 2nd best month since the summer of '07. Interestingly, 6 of my top 10 months occurred in the magical year of '06 capped off by Paul's 2nd place finish in the big one. I doubt I will ever have a year like that again where everything went right from day 1 until day 365. I'm not saying I won't ever make more money in a year because there is some likelihood I will have a major score one day that eclipses that year all in one fell swoop.

In any case, I hope January is a harbinger for the year. The "Year of the Ox" is off to a good start.