Full Tilt

The market/government is tilting me
poker is tilting me
and unfortunately I'm even getting tilted by friends

Things better turn around soon....

Good thing I'm on vacation, even though I'm not enjoying as much as I should

Watch Out!!!

If/when the market drops below current levels many technicians believe we could test last year's lows.  We have tested current levels at least 3 times and rebounded every time, but each rebound has been weaker and weaker.  As I've said in the past our "economic recovery" was based solely on governments around the world throwing money into the pot and hoping it works somehow.  Now the money is spent, debt levels have risen to dangerous levels, and we are worse off as a result.  Naturally, a retest is not a sure thing, but each day that passes makes it look more and more likely. 

We need to shrink the government and get our fiscal house in order.  This is going to be a painful process because so many people are sucking on the government's tit.  However, look at virtually every country in history, and you will see that the larger a government gets relative to the private sector, the worse the country does economically.  This is not my opinion, do your own research.  Our government is getting larger by leaps and bounds.  We need to return America to the people, and return to the principles this great country was founded on.

Note:  Two hours after I wrote this the market dropped 1% in the last half hour of trading to go below the support levels.

Update from Vegas

I've been on a bit of a cold streak since my early four cashes.  I did have two near cashes in the $2500 PLO and the $1500 HORSE.  Surprisingly, I am still very focused and energized, but I am looking forward to seeing my family on the 7th of July.  I still have a handful of events left including the big daddy of them all.  My next event is tomorrow - $1500 PLO8.  This event is one of the ones I've been looking forward to for a while.

World Cup Pool

Four of us in the house have ponied up some money for a World Cup 2010 pool.  We did a snake style draft for all 32 teams using the following scoring system:

Points in pool play = what your team earns (3 pts for a win, 1 for a tie)
Bonus pts if your team wins its pool = 3 pts, gets 2nd in its pool = 2 pts
Round of 16 and quarter final wins = 4 pts
Semifinal and Finals win = 5 pts

These are the teams with pick # in ( ):

Seth: odds to win 3.2:1
(1) Spain
(8) France
(9) Portugal
(16) Chile
(17) Paraguay
(24) Switzerland
(25) South Korea
(32) North Korea

While Spain may be the best team on paper they may have the toughest draw once the knockout phase begins where they will likely face Brazil or Portugal right off the bat followed by Italy.  If Portugal and Spain face each other in the round of 16 Seth will imediately lose a title contender.  France getting deep is critical for this team unless Spain or Portugal wins it all (which is a strong possibility).  Paraguay is a potential sleeper given their soft pool.  No real bad picks except maybe South Korea (but that one isn't a big deal).

Samenole: odds to win 2.8:1
(2) Brazil
(7) Germany
(10) Serbia
(15) Ivory Coast
(18) Mexico
(23) Slovakia
(26) Australia
(31) New Zealand

Brazil's analysis is similar to Spain's - great team shitty draw.  While they should get out of pool play it isn't a guarantee.  Earning first is critical so they won't likely have to face Spain in the round of 16.  This was a well picked team in general though except for one: Ivory Coast.  This team is solid and may even be a sleeper in most years.  However, this year they are in a pool with Brazil and Portugal, and even if they survive that, they will likely be the 2nd place team in the pool and face Spain in the round of 16.  To win this team needs the middle of its order to step up with 2-3 round of 16 apperances and a surprise quarterfinal appearance because the bottom of his order may get some much needed unexpected points that make the difference.

Chris: odds to win 2:1
(3) England
(6) Argentina
(11) USA
(14) Nigeria
(19) Uruguay
(22) Denmark
(27) Slovenia
(30) Honduras

Obviously I have to think my own team is the best.  Drafting third, I obviously could not get one of the two big guns, but that may be a good thing because I was able to take teams that have much easier draws to the semifinals.  The top 5 teams in FIFA's rankings are all in groups E-H meaning anyone in the top half of the draw does not have to face these teams until the semifinals.  With that in mind, I think I need to get 3 teams into the quarters to have a chance because it is less likely I will have the overall champion like Seth or Samenole or Tom.  I'm almost certain I will have two quarterfinalists - Argentina and one of my group C teams (England/USA/Slovenia-unlikely).  Thus, Nigeria or Uruguay could be critical for me.  If I do get a team into the finals, my chances skyrocket.

Tom: odds to win 4:1
(4) Italy
(5) Netherlands
(12) Greece
(13) Cameroon
(20) South Africa
(21) Ghana
(28) Algeria
(29) Japan

Tom's team has the most boom or bust potential.  I'm just leaning towards bust.  Italy and Netherlands have easy rides to the quarterfinals - unless they face each other in the round of 16.  However, then they will face likely Brazil, Portugal, or Spain.  A critcal win here by either team will enhance his chances mightily.  I don't know much about Greece or Cameroon, but the bookmakers seem to really hate these two teams despite their fairly high FIFA ranking.  Therefore, I don't like them either.  Home teams usually play out of their minds.  For South Africa that would be getting 1 win.  That makes this a pick a stretch.  The key to Tom's picking seemed to be to get as many African teams as possible.  This may be a great strategy because they all should be pumped up to play on their home continent (also usually a bonus).  However most of these teams are inferior to the Euro and South American teams. So, even with the added boost of adrenalin their results might not be good enough.  As Tom said after his first couple picks, he wanted teams he can root for.  He got them, but just like in a march madness contest, this strategy usually fails miserably...yet it is one I secretly hope works out.

Update after 7 events:

I have now played seven events out here after busting 38th out of 1663 players in the $1500 6-max NLH for another smallish score.  This follows my 18th place finish out of 250 in the 2-7 NL Single Draw event.  I now have 3 cashes.  I'm running pretty well, and I'm playing pretty well (although I am still making some critical mistakes that need to be cut out).  I have roughly 1/2 of my outlay for the trip covered now.  I JUST NEED TO FINISH OFF ONE OF THESE THINGS! 

I get my first day off tomorrow since I arrived in Vegas, which simply means I will be working on my other job.  Then it is time for the $1500 PLO on Thursday.

WSOP Update

I got out here last Friday to some bad news which I will spare you the details.  I played event #3 $1000 NLH on Saturday and busted a few levels in with really no chance.  On Sunday, I decided at the last minute to play event #4 $1500 Omaha H/L (good decision).  I ended up making it to the final day, and ultimately, I finished in 14th place for a decent payday.  I grinded a short stack for the better part of day 2 and all of day 3.  So I was satisfied with my finish.  I have loftier goals obviously, and this just wet my appetite for bigger things.

On a side note:  Matt Smith cashed decent in the $1000 NLH and is in day 2 of the $2500 2-7 Triple Draw event.  Tom Fuller cashed in the $1500 NLH, and Toph Moore is onto his 2nd table (and in the money) of the $5000 NLH Shootout.  Overall our group is off to a great start.  I told Tom a few days ago despite the bad start to the summer campaign (and maybe because of it), I have a real good feeling big things are ahead.

Online Review

Over the past 2 weeks, I have been immersed in online poker whenever I could be due to two online poker series running concurrently (SCOOP on Pokerstars and Mini FTOPS on Full Tilt).  I'm not sure how I feel yet about my results.  I did turn a little profit which is always nice.  However, I really felt like I was on top of my game for the vast majority of time, and I thought I ran below expectations to only turn a small profit.  This is obviously disappointing, but with the WSOP just around the corner, I am very encouraged with my game.

Here are some of the numbers:

Cashed in 5/23 SCOOP-Lows, 5/20 SCOOP-Mediums, 0/1 SCOOP High, 3/9 Mini FTOPS.
In total I cashed in 13 of the 53 events I played (just under 25%).

Most importantly though is some of the deep finishes:
2nd of 697 in Pot Limit 5 Card Draw
37th of 8504 in No Limit Shootout
43rd of 2004 in 8 Game Mixed
54th of 2041 in Pot Limit Omaha H/L
35th of 687 in Pot Limit Omaha H/L

This is what has me encouraged and disappointed at the same time.  Five deep runs in 53 tournaments is outstanding.  But I have to turn more of these deep runs into big scores otherwise it doesn't mean too much.  The WSOP is the perfect venue for me to breakout.  If I can keep playing this way, and catch just a bit of luck, I will come home a big winner this summer.

Stepping Stone

Last night I went very deep in SCOOP #6 $109 Pot Limit 5 Card Draw ultimately finishing 2nd.  While I hate to play the game, it did get interesting as we got deep and the metagame got more developed.  The guy I faced HU was very solid, and I think I made some errors of not adjusting well to how he was playing resulting in me calling some hands I should have folded.  Here is an article on pokerstars about the final table:

http://www.pokerstarsblog.com/scoop/2010/scoop-scooter-scoots-past-champ-to-claim-069564.html

There are some bad errors because obviously the guy writing it doesn't understand the game, but they make me sound great (so I encourage you to read it :) ). 

During the tourney, I looked up my historical results in 5 Card Draw.  I only play the game during the SCOOP and WCOOP, but I remembered doing fairly well when I did play.  The results are kind of interesting.  I have played 9 tournies in my life - 3 super sat, 2 WCOOPs, and 4 SCOOPs.  I have cashed in all 3 supers, both WCOOPs, and 2 of the 4 SCOOPs (7 out of 9 ain't too shabby).  However, this was my first significant cash.  While I don't look forward to the next time I play this game,  I nevertheless will be in the mix again I hope.

Important Issue

Listen to this please, and if you agree with please spread it around however you deem fit.

Huh?

This just in Chris "PiMaster" Viox took third again at a live event....

Hold on just a sec.... What? -  I am mistaken.  It looks like he won.  Is this a misprint? No?!?!

It is now confirmed Pi actually won. 

Yes I actually won a live event yesterday.  It was a $350 NLH 6 max event at the WSOP Circuit Series in St. Louis.  The win was worth $8998, so I can't complain.  It only had 107 entries, and was the smallest prize pool I've ever played in live.  It may also have been as unlikely of a win as I'll ever get given the circumstances that occurred.  So here is the summary:

We started with 5k in chip at 25/50 blinds.  The blinds were only 30 minutes long because this was basically the 2nd chance event of the day.  Therefore some gambling was going to be necessary.  With the first 45 minutes, I had bluffed off most of my stack to a guy that I found out would never fold any draw or top pair.  I was down to 1500 at the 50/100 level.  Over the next 2 1/2 levels I would get up to 12500 without getting allin and called or busting anyone.  This was pretty ridiculous given my stack and the blinds.  I made some good bluffs and my allins were never called.

I stayed around 12-18k for a couple hours before an crazy hand came up.  I was on my 3rd table of the day.  I had been playing fairly snug (due to my stack, the stacks at my table, and the blinds).  The only "player" at my table raised my big blind for 2.3x from the cutoff.  He had raised my big blind every time it folded to him.  I had already decided to reraise with any big or bad hand.  However, I looked down at T9.  With this hand, I preferred the call with the intention of check-raising allin any decent flop (his cbet % was 100%).  The flop came a beautiful T(63d).  He bet 2700ish and I shoved for 14 or 15k.  He tanked for a while, and it looked like he wanted to call.  I had not done this once though, and had been not taking any chances.  So he had to respect it.  I was worried about a hand like JT.  He finally called with Ad5 (wtf?!?!).  Sure enough I get a great sweat when the 4 rolls off, but fortunately I dodge his 11 outer. 

After that hand, I lost a big pot with AQd vs 66 leaving me with around 19k.  Then a young kid got sat on my right with a big stack.  He proceeded to lose a big pot to get about even with me.  Then at the 400/800 level, he raised UTG to 2400 and I looked down at JJ.  I reraised to 7500, and when it folded around to him he shipped the rest in (Sidenote - in this structure I can't rationalize calling here too often especially against a perceived agro player who just lost a bigt pot.).  I obviously called and lost to his KK.  This left me with 1525, or less than 2 big blinds. 

At this point, things got insane for the next hour.  The next hand after getting crippled, I look down at JJ UTG, and I triple up against the blinds to around 4800.  The ensuing hand folds to the SB (perceived agro internet kid) and he raises to 2400 (red alert).  I look at K5 and figure with only 6bbs why not?  He flips over AA - game over.  The board runs out A23 5 (at which point I said "damn now I can only chop").  As the river is dealt the dealer starts laughing before I even see the card, and I know it's the 4.  Freeroll!!!!!!!  I fold a round of hands not better than 8 high.  Then I get a walk with only 4k.  I steals from the cutoff with 97 and the next hand with KT. I fold through the blinds, and then shove from the button with A8.  The big blind insta calls with 55.  The board rolls out 367 2 8 (I annouce "bink" when it hits).  Now I'm up to 12kish.  I buy some blinds to get to around 15k.  When my big blind comes around, it folds to the small blind again.  He looks at his cards and sticks in a bunch of chips.  It is about 8 or 9k.  It is also obvious he didn't realize I had much more than that.  I think his range is much bigger than would be normal for commitikng 12-13 big blinds.  I look at A9, and figure this is an easy hand to go with.  He looks a little pissed as he has to call off 6 or 7k more with Q2.  I flop a 9, and it holds - 30kish.  Four hands later, the same guy raises UTG to 3600.  I look down at KK and reraise to 10500.  He ships it in barely having me covered.  His TT never catches up and amazingly about 45 minutes after being crippled to 1500, I have around 60k and may be the chip leader in the tourney with 20 left.  Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!! 

I get moved once again.  I stay between 50-70k until the money hits.  From 10 players on down, I pretty much owned the tourney.  When we combined at 7 players,  I had 200k+ and the other two guys on my table had 15k and 50k at the 3k/6k level.  The guy I had just eliminated 8th had 10k.  I simply ran over the table.  Of the final 9 players (not including me), I eliminated 8 of them (I also doubled guys up probably about 6 times).  The final table allins up until heads up were J9 vs KJ (lost), A8 vs QJ (won) A9 vs J7s (lost), AJ vs A3 (lost), one I forgot where I busted a shortie in 6th, AA vs A6 (won), 77 vs Q8 (won), KQ vs Ax (won). 

When I got heads up, I had about a 2 to 1 chip lead.  I whittled him down a little, then lost T5s vs A3.  He eventually took a small chip lead before the pot that basically decided it came up.  He limped the button and I checked my 65.  The flop came 7(89h).  I led into him, and he insta shoved.  After my call, he showed KT.  At this point, Adam Friedman yells something like "you've got him dead." It was eerily reminiscent of his comment at the WSOP Razz final table when he shouted "you got him almost drawing dead."  At which point the guy hit perfect perfect to bust me.  However, this time my straight held and Adam's life was preserved.  He later stated he thought the guy had K9. Whatever!  I was destined to win when I avoided that amazing premature celebration.  The guy was left with under 2 big bets.  He doubled up the first hand when I shoved blind, but I finished off a couple hands later with T7 vs KJ.

Health Care "Reform" (sigh)

With the near certainty of this health care bill being signed into law, our politicians continue to say one thing and do another.  Do we need health care reform? - without a doubt, but this plan does nothing to reform the major problems. 

The main talking point the proponents have used is that it helps reduce the deficit by some fairly large number over the next ten years (BTW take note that they always say the next 10 years, never longer), and it does do this.  But do you know why?  Because for the first 4 years they payout nothing.  All they do is collect in new taxes to "fund" the program.  Then after the first 4 years they finally start to enact the program.  Now I ask you, if you were given a business where you had absolutely no expenses (aka claims) for 4 years but you had tons of revenue (aka taxes), could you make a profit (aka have a surplus)?  Of course.  However, if you look at any numbers over the following ten years, the true cost of this program adds tremendously to our already ever bludgeoning debt.

So what are some of the major problems of our current health care system that have led to skyrocketing costs and premiums for Americans?

1)  Medicare/medicaid:  Currently the government forces doctors/hospitals to accept below market rates for medicare patients because the program is essentially broke.  The government cannot afford to pay market rate because the fund is empty.  So what do these entities then do?  Obviously they pass the costs on to everyone else.  As baby boomers get older and more people enter the poverty zone, medicare/medicaid has grown tremendously.  This means everyone else has had to pick up a larger and larger portion of the health care costs that medicare/medicaid do not pay for.  This leads to higher and higher premiums.  Why does the government get to negotiate (force) a better price for itself than the average health plan can get for its clients.  Does this health care bill address this?  NO

2) Tort Reform:  Americans sue over everything.  EVERYTHING.  We are the leading country in lawsuits by an unimaginable percentage, and the lawsuits get larger and more ridiculous every year.  It is called practicing medicine for a reason.  Mistakes happen, side effects happen.  There is no other country I'd trust my life to doctors than America, but sometimes shit happens.  Now if a doctor amputates the wrong arm, I can understand suing him, but if someone you loves dies in an operation where there is an 80% chance of survival, then pray that he/she has gone to a better place. Don't blame the doctor/hospital.  What this has led to are doctors prescribing all sorts of tests to cover there asses when a patient comes in for a fairly routine issue.  Also E&O (errors and omission- aka lawsuit protection) insurance has skyrocketed.  Both of these items have led to ever increasing insurance costs also.  Does this health care bill address this? NO

3) Drug costs:  Right now drug companies charge Americans far more for drugs here than in any other country.  Why is this the case?  Oh yeah, because the lobbyists for drug companies have gotten our politicians to set extremely tough standards for generic drugs.  Drug patents last for a long time and often get extended for a variety of reasons.  Go to Canada, Europe, Asis and you can get the same drugs there for pennies on the dollar than it costs Americans here (even though a vast majority of the drugs get created here).  Drug companies can't charge ridiculous prices overseas because generics would crush them, so they sell them at tiny margins there, and jack them up here.  Essentially Americans are fitting the bill for the rest of the world.  So why don't Americans just buy the drugs overseas and ship them here in bulk to keep down costs?  Oh yeah (another law passed by our politicians looking out for us) it is illegal and we'd get fined or face jail time.  Does this health care bill address this?  NO

So do I want health care reform?  Desparately, but not this health care reform.  It just does not address the issues that are causing the problems.  Address the above issues, and then we can talk.  Until then, costs will keep rising.  This bill is essentially just another tax that gives our government some extra revenue to fund their spending habits under the guise of health care reform.

Best Day 1 Ever?

I'm not sure if this was the best day 1 of the NCAA tournament ever, but it definitely has to rank right up there. 

First group of games - incredible:

Old Dominion won a squeaker over Notre Dame by 1.  This game was back and forth most of the way, and Notre Dame had a 3 pointer go in and out as time basically ran out. 

BYU (this year's Davidson?) then won a double overtime thriller over Florida as the world was introduced to BYU point guard Jimmer Fredette and his 37 points.  This kid has it all including an uncanny ability to get to the rim.  I will be rooting for these guys for as long as they can go no matter who they face.

Lastly, Villanova stole a victory from a game Robert Morris team in overtime.  Robert Morris led almost the entire regulation before 'Nova sent the game into overtime.  This victory saved a little face for the Big East in what was easily the most embarrsing day in a long time for the conference.  Yet Villanova had no right to win it.  They were outhustled big time, but the disappointing end didn't take too much away from this exciting game.

The second group of games were overall not as great, but had the most exciting buzzer beater of the day. 

Kansas St handled their business efficiently, and Butler, St. Mary's, and Baylor all had close halftime games before late runs gave them victories.  However...........how about Murray St?!?!  Danero Thomas hit a 15 footer at the buzzer to send the 13 seed into the second round after Vanderbilt had done the same at the other end with 13 seconds left. 

Third group - awesome:

Kentucky's massive blow out was the only dud, unless you count 14th seeded Ohio's pounding of Georgetown?????  What happened here?  The mighty Hoyas must have thought this was the preseason, and ironically their next game will be.  There is nothing better than watching a highly rated team from the "#1 conference" just get it handed to them by a 9th place finisher from a mid major. 

Northern Iowa won another great game on a 3 pointer by Ali Farokhmanesh (don't ask me to pronounce that one) from well beyond the arc with 5 seconds remaining to break a tie ballgame.  Northern Iowa came into the game with the number 1 defense in the land, and their gritty effortshowed why.  I love watching lesser athletic teams play with great fundamentals to win.  This is UNI in a nutshell.  This is another team I will definitely be watching in the next round to see how they can handle the Jayhawks.

Finally, Marquette ended a putrid day for the Big East by blowing a 15 point 2nd half  lead over Washington to lose by 2 in another close exciting game.  Washington scored on last second shot breaking a tie ballgame and leaving Marquette standing on the wall on a shot by Pondexter.

So the final set of games surely would be a letdown, right?  Uh, not exactly.

Sure KU pounded Lehigh, but only after Lehigh hung tough for just over a half.  However, the other three games were a continuation of the rest of the day.

Tennessee hung on against San Diego St.  SD St. had a chance to tie it at the buzzer with a three, but unfortunately it didn't go down for basketball fans. 

Then in a game that rivaled the Murray St. game, Wake Forest beat Texas by 1 in overtime on a shot with 2 seconds left.  This after Texas missed multiple free throws that could have iced the game including 2 misses with 10 seconds left. 

In the last game of the night, 14th seeded Montana led at half before falling behind by 14 points in the second half against New Mexico.  Then they stormed back to get within 1 before finally succumbing by 5.
 
So in summary:

3 overtime games which eclipsed the total for the entire tourney last year
4 games decided by shots in the last 5 seconds
5 double digit seeds winning (the most on day 1 since 1991)
7 games decided by 3 pts or less

Day 2 anyone?

Go Tom GO!

Watch Tom Fuller try to take down his first live event (and not too shabby of one at that) at 4PM cst.

http://www.pokerstars.tv/channels/TPI/live.html

1st prize is over 800k!

Take no prisoners Tom!  It's your time!

Quick Update

Jason Dewitt (5th) & Tom Fuller (9th) both crushing the NAPT Venetian Deep Stack heading to day 3 (148 runners left).  Matt Smith also in the mix with an under avg stack.

I had a stressful semi successful week in poker (that I felt could have been a huge week).  I feel things are turning in the right direction, especially my PLO/PLO8 cash game.

USA/Canada hockey game was phenomenal.  Up and down, back and forth, unbelievable effort given.

USA Curling needs some new blood, who's in?

Things are HOPping

In the past couple weeks, a couple friends of mine have had some nice successes.  Paul Wasicka won the Tunica WSOP Circuit Main Event.  He beat out 90+ entrants in the $5K event to take down his 2nd live victory (the other being the NBC Heads Up Championship in 2007 I believe).  Also Tom Fuller had two deep Heads Up No Limit runs (one live and one online).  He made a 4 way deal at the Borgata $2K Heads Up (essentially taking 2nd/3rd place money), and yesterday he took 3rd/4th in the FTOPS $500 Heads Up.  Congrat to both of you - very well deserved.

Bring On the Curling!

Most people agree that the Summer Olympics are far superior to the Winter Olympics. However, with the Winter Olympics starting tonight, two of my favorite sports to watch are highlighted: hockey and curling.  Yes I said curling!  Shuffleboard on ice.  I love the strategy and the subtleties.  It has to be one of the harder "sports" to control your nerves to do a precise speed and direction type motion.  I will watch other events as I love most sports played on the highest platform, but I will try to catch as much of the two aforementioned ones as possible.

Pstars WBCOOP

I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker! The WBCOOP is a free online Poker tournament open to all Bloggers, so register on WBCOOP to play.
Registration code: 722151

Good Ole UB

So I got an email from UB on January 14th, and in it, it had a link advertising discounted entries into the upcoming UB series if you registered in December through their store.  Notice what day I received it.  Anyway I wrote them this back:

Nice to get this email in January after the December discounts.


and this is their cleverly constructed reply:
 
Dear Christopher,


Thank you for contacting us.

Your kind words and loyalty to the Ultimatebet family are very much appreciated.

We are happy to hear that you are pleased with the quality of service received, games and promotions. Rest assured that your feedback is always welcome, since we are aware that it is our customer's critiques and suggestions what helps us improve every day.

Please do not hesitate to contact us again if you require any type of assistance in the future. It is our main concern to provide you with the best poker experience and the most helpful customer support available!

Best regards,

Vern

Customer Support Department

Be berry berry careful....

There are some signs in the markets that perilous times may be in the near (next quarter) future.  None of them are blatantly apparent (mainly because hype TV usually refrains from talking in depth about potential danger signs.  However, investor sentiment is at very high levels (usually very bearish signal).  Interest rates keep sneaking higher, and with government sales of treasuries expected to be even higher this year than last year's ridiculous numbers, this could be very dangerous.  If rates keep increasing, beware, this will instantly bring a halt to the "recovery."  Recently, several large closed end high yield bond funds have had major selloffs.  The last two times this happened - fall 2007 and winter 2008-2009.  Also, the long awaited (but hardly ever mentioned on TV) flow of ARMs and Alt-A mortgages that were the rage at the end of the housing boom to entice financially less stable players into houses they likely shouldn''t have bought, will start resetting their interest rates early this year.  The peak of these resets probably won't occur until 2011 though.   However, people that were previously making very minimal payments on their houses will be in for a rude awakening very shortly.  Given a high percentage of these players are either out of a job, on a reduced work schedule or shouldn't have bought the thing in the first place, another (potentially crippling) downswing in the real estate markets is very possible.  Throw in increasing interest rates, an already weak economy, a government stretched to and maybe beyond its capacity in debt, and you have a recipe for disaster.

Do not be fooled by the "great" numbers that have been flooding the markets.  This has been completely fueled by the government's ridiculous spending habits.  The liquidity has been propping our economy up now for some time.  However, how can we keep growing without free money (keep in mind nothing is really free)?  Yet how can we continue to keep adding on more debt?   Herein lies the problem.  Out of the 2 TRILLION dollars of debt the government issued last year, only 1/10 of it (200 billion) was purchased by someone other than our own government or agencies of it.  So you see there is hardly any desire to purchase our debt by investors or foriegn entities, and in essence we created 1.8 TRILLION dollars out of thin air last year. 

If our economy is doing so well, why is the fed keeping interest rates artificially so low?  They know raising rates would be deadly because our economy is still in extremely bad shape.  They can only keep rates artificially low for some time.  Eventually the market will say no more.  At that point the only way that rates will be able to stay low is if the fed essentially begins to buy up more and more and more of the outstanding treasury market, ie create more money out of thin air.  At this point, the dollar would begin to plummet.

The three scenarios I see at this point are:  1)  The market forces our government to it's senses in the form of a bond dislocation (essentially rates spike up).  The market would likely crash.  As long as the government doesn't try to solve this with some extremely massive spending bill, the dollar would likely rally hard.  2) Our government continues the status quo.  The dollar continues to get weaker over time (with a possibilty of rapid decline).  The stock market continues to rise, but day-to-day living will become much more expensive over time.  This could last for a few years, but eventually it can't go on, and scenario one comes into play anyway.  3)  The government gets spending under control, the fed walks the tight rope perfectly, housing rebounds, GDP growth gets to about the 5-6% and unemployment gets down to 6% for the next 10 years (these are the assumptions the White House used for what is needed to pay off our national debt and budget outlays), and we come out of this all happy.  The problem with this scenario - government and fiscally responsible together is a joke, the fed rarely ever is on top of things until it is too late, bubbles (housing) rarely rebound in under a decade (the Nasdaq is still 50% below its 2000 highs), and GDP growth of 5-6% would be about 3% above historical norms.  Throw in that it would have to occur for 10 years and we have a very unlikely scenario. 

I know I have been rambling, but this is very complex.  I've tried to simplify it.  I could probably write for another hour or more on this.  Life is good right now on Wall Street, but in Main Street America things haven't changed much.