The Stretch Run

As September begins, I want to take a look at the division of my beloved St. Louis Cardinals, the behemoth NL Central. Sure no team deserves to make the playoffs, but one will (and who knows they might end up winning the World Series ala St. Louis last year). Who will it be?

Currently, the Cubs lead Milwaukee and St. Louis by 1.5 and 2 games respectively. I am not even going to look at Milwaukee because they have been in a huge tailspin, and I do not see their chances at better than 1 in 10. At one point, they had the best record in the NL. They led the Cards by 10.5 games and I believe the Cubs by 7 or 8 after the all-star break. They blew this huge lead and have been playing awful baseball of late. They are young, inexperienced and playing scared.

Here are the remaining schedules for Chi and StL:

St. Louis___________Chicago

2 vs Cin (62-73)______2 vs Hou (61-74)
4 vs Pit (59-75)______4 vs LAD (70-64)
3 @ Ari (74-60)______3 @ Pit (59-75)
1 @ Chi (68-65)______1 vs STL (65-66)
3 @ Cin (62-73)______3 @ Hou (61-74)
4 vs Chi (68-65)______4 @ StL (65-66)
3 vs Phi (72-62)______3 vs Cin (62-73)
4 vs Hou (61-74)_____ 3 vs Pit (59-75)
3 @ Mil (67-67)______3 @ Flo (58-77)
1 @ NYM (74-60)____ 3 @ Cin (62-73)
3 @ Pit (59-75)______

31 Games__________29 Games

Predicted Record
18-13_____________16-13

I have predicted the Cubs to win by a game given their remaining schedules with a final record of 84-78 (the same amount of wins by St. Louis last year). The Cardinals only have 12 games remaining against winning clubs (and 5 of those are against the Cubs). However, Chicago only has 4 games (all LAD) against a winning club. So while the Cardinals are playing better ball than the Cubs, it is going to be hard to overtake them. St. Louis has 17 home games remaining versus the Cubs 13. This will benefit St. Louis alot especially given 4 of the 5 games against Chicago are in St. Louis. I factored in 3 wins for St. Louis in these 5 games. If they somehow win 4, that would put them 1 up on the Cubs instead of 1 back in my outlook. Needless to say, those 5 games are crucial. I don't think the Cards can lose anymore than 2 of them to have a reasonable chance.

Odds - St. Louis 3 in 10, Chicago 6 in 10. I gave Milwaukee 1 in 10.

The good news for St. Louis fans: I never factored in the historical Cubs losing aura and the winning tradition for St. Louis. See you in October!!!!